Turkey and Syria earthquake: Lessons for India and the seismically vulnerable North East

The recent devastating earthquake in Turkey and Syria which has killed over 21,000 people should come as a wake-up for the Indian State and particularly the northeastern states. Readers will recall that when a massive tremor with a magnitude of 6.4 on the Richter scale rocked the North East and the neighbouring countries including Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar and China on 28 April 2021, the prophets of doom who are more scientifically oriented than they were in earlier times stated that the inevitable had happened. In any event, despite the fact that the quake did not cause great damage to property as was the case in earlier years, the message that went out loud and clear to the denizens of the region was that “there was something rotten in the state of Denmark". The Wuhan scourge—when the “act of god” by way of the earthquake came a visiting—had  already entered the innards of society bringing in its wake enfeeblement that witnessed an en masse sense of impending doom. The tremor in Turkey and Syria is grim reminder to the people of the North East. However, one aspect that came to the fore is that the rigour which seismologists bring to bear on some of their predictions has normally been met with scepticism. Either the methodology is suspect, or there is a trend towards complacency, labelling the forecast as spawn of uncertain science, until the worst takes place. The devastation which accompanied the earthquake measuring 6.8 on the Richter scale when it visited the north Eastern region on 18 September 2011 stands testimony to the above narrative. Indeed, not only have individual seismologists been cautioning about the possibility of a grand tremor, but the Geological Survey of India too had advised that the North East—which falls in the sixth worst quake-prone belt in the world, Zone V—could witness a devastating earthquake. The visitation that was felt in 2011 all over the region took the lives of over 100 people, mostly in Sikkim. Precariously perched in the co-junction of several tectonic plates like the Pacific, the Eurasian and the Indo-Australian ones, the Benioff Zone, which the North East is a constituent of, is considered to be seismically very unstable. Indeed, the entire country is reportedly experiencing enormous stress as a result of the movement towards—by about 3 inches every year—and consequent collision of the Indian plate with the great wall that makes up the Himalayas. The majority of the quakes have—as a result—epicentred around the North East and the Tibetan plateau. Indeed, the frequency with which earthquakes occur in the region can be gleaned from the Regional Meteorology Centre data. 614 earthquakes of low and moderate intensities shook the North East between 1980 and 2021. Between1869 and 2009, the region recorded three earthquakes that scaled beyond 8 on the Richter measure. These took place on 12 June 1897 (8.7), on 15 January 1934 (8.3) and on 15 August 1950 (8.6). The quakes of 1897 and 1950 took the lives of 1,600 and 1,500 people respectively in Assam, and tales from the time still tremble about the death and destruction that it brought in its wake. According to one account the fishes of the Brahmaputra River were thrown out into the streets of Guwahati. Despite the problem of prediction that seems to be inherent to seismology, the fact of the matter is that considerable progress has been made during the last 60-odd years. However, earthquake continues to be the major source of disaster, and even the knowledge about the history of earthquakes and other natural disasters in India has not fast tracked the country’s disaster management capabilities in the manner that it should have. Indeed, the foremost aspects that needs to be ascertained are a) the disaster mitigation capability that follows an earthquake. In the earthquake of 18 September 2011, this aspect was woefully inadequate, resulting in many lives being lost not as a direct result of the earthquake, but the establishment’s inability to access areas (particularly North Sikkim, which was the worst affected) where victims were in need of medical help. Also contingency plans that involve the adoption of scientific measures that would reduce the effects of a natural disaster were not in evidence. While it is understood that science has not reached the stage where earthquakes can be prevented, it is imperative that measures—that would have been practised and perfected earlier—must be activated immediately when such disasters strike. The trend should be to shift the focus from relief and rescue to mitigation and preparedness. Indeed, a resolution [236 of 1989] was adopted in this regard in the UN General Assembly and the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (1990-2000) was initiated to reduce the loss of life and property damage. On the other hand, correct response mechanisms that would automatically come into play when natural disasters strike must be taken up. It is a sad commentary of post-disaster response that coffee was still being served in the hastily convened “war-rooms” days after the earthquake shook the North East, and without even a comprehensive chart about how to reach North Sikkim emerging from the caffeinated planners. It is reported that one of the plans that have been devised is to commandeer the aid of mountaineers from other areas. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) must permanently station adequate personnel and equipment of the National Disaster Response Force in each of the eight capitals of the North Eastern states. b) The other aspect that must be attended to is correct attention to seismology research. The NDMA must fund studies and projects in the North East that would be able to narrow the prediction span from long term to short term, namely to a period that should ideally be immediately prior to a natural disaster. The prediction should be able to specify the geographical area, the time interval and the expected magnitude. In the aftermath of the recent quake of 28 April 2021 that rocked primarily Assam, a picture that emerged in the minds of right-thinking people in the area was about NDMA-led instructions, society-oriented plans and correct publicity. But that is yet to be. In an insecure world where traditional dangers from terrorism and crime occupy the minds of most security managers, the risk of natural disasters like earthquake cannot be undermined, even if it is for far-flung outposts. Indeed, the two are inter-connected, especially in the Indian context where traditional threats to national security await the appearance of natural faultlines that would not only guide their designs, but aid it. Non-traditional security risks must not be overlooked. The author is a conflict theorist and bestselling author. Views expressed are personal. Read all the Latest News, Trending News, Cricket News, Bollywood News, India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.