Trump’s top-down Gaza peace plan has all ingredients for disaster

The Green Zone, a fact-based war thriller helmed by the renowned Paul Greengrass, concludes with a glimpse into Iraq’s ravaged and tumultuous future.

Focused on the fabricated Weapon of Mass Destruction intel provided by Iraqi defector Rafid Ahmed Alwan al-Janabi, known as “Curveball” (the new “Deep Throat”) by Western intelligence agencies, the movie climaxes with an intense political bickering among Iraqi factions—an ominous start to 2003, the year of US invasion.

Greg Kinnear, who plays Department of Defense Special Intelligence official Clark Poundstone—based on Paul Bremer, the corrupt and controversial head of the American puppet Coalition Provisional Authority—witnesses a meeting in the Green Zone convened to decide Iraq’s leader descend into chaos.

The factions refuse to recognise US-backed politician Ahmed Zubaidi—in reality, Ayad Allawi, a former Ba’athist-turned-CIA supporter—as Iraq’s new leader.

The Green Zone ending highlights how the US failed to understand the complex dynamics of Iraqi factions and the ethnic strife and why Iraqis weren’t ready to accept an American puppet as their leader.

Deposing a dictator, especially with foreign military intervention, is never the biggest hurdle. The chaos, the struggle for power and the bloodshed that ensue are the biggest obstacles to peace and rebuilding.

The US is infamous for abandoning nations after direct or indirect military operations in the name of restoring democracy or fighting terrorism and for strategic and military gains—Afghanistan and Iraq are the best examples.

No ‘Mission Accomplished’ in Iraq and Gaza

A similar situation could plague war-torn Gaza.

On May 1, 2003, on board the USS Abraham Lincoln, George W Bush declared that the US had won in Iraq after overthrowing dictator Saddam Hussein.

“Major combat operations in Iraq have ended. In the battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed … because the regime is no more,” he said after a much-criticised arrested landing in the nuclear-capable anti-submarine S-3 Viking.

As Bush declared a fake American victory from the podium, a White House-produced banner with the words “MISSION ACCOMPLISHED” hung in the background.

“The War on Terror continues, yet it is not endless. We do not know the day of final victory, but we have seen the turning of the tide,” he said.

The tide in Iraq never turned in America’s favour.

A bloody insurgency rocked Iraq the same year, transformed into a sectarian war and continued till the US ended combat operations, leaving the country ruined and devastated.

Despite Bush claiming that the US had won, troops remained in Iraq for eight more years. The US spent around $728 billion, 4,492 US servicemembers were killed and another 32,292 were wounded. Around 200,000 Iraqi civilians were killed.

Though then-secretary of state Donald Rumsfeld removed the words “Mission Accomplished” from Bush’s speech, the president delivered a similar speech with the words included to US troops Camp As Sayliyah in Afghanistan on June 5 the same year.

Both Iraq and Afghanistan were destroyed never to recover again.

Bush’s “Mission Accomplished” catchphrase was back to haunt the US 15 years later during Donald Trump’s first term. After the US, the UK and France struck Syria with a volley of Storm Shadow and Tomahawk missiles on April 14, 2018, in response to the Douma chemical attack by the then-Bashar al-Assad regime, Trump prematurely tweeted: “Mission Accomplished!”

Nothing was accomplished as the Syrian Civil War continued till December 2024 with a former al-Qaeda member, Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa—who fought American troops in Iraq and Syria—now leading a highly destabilised nation riven by a sectarian conflict, humanitarian crisis and economic turmoil.

On October 12, Trump did a Bush.

Before departing for Israel, where he got a standing ovation for ending the war following his 20-point Gaza Peace Plan, and Egypt for the Gaza Peace Summit and ceasefire signing, Trump, in his much-loathed pomposity, said that the Gaza War was “over”.

“This is not only the end of a war … This is the historic dawn of a new Middle East,” Trump told the Knesset on October 13 amid applause.

“It’ll be the new beginning for an entirely beautiful Middle East,” the US president said during the signing of a joint declaration on Gaza, ‘Trump Declaration for Enduring Peace and Prosperity’, in Egypt’s Red Sea resort city of Sharm el-Sheikh on the same day.

Leaders and representatives from 30 nations gathered as Trump painted a rosy future for the region. “This is a monumental moment in the history of the world beyond the Middle East,” he said on a stage adorned with the theme “PEACE 2025” in big, bold and white.

Trump’s two speeches bear an uncanny resemblance to Bush’s speech.

Ironically, the words emblazoned before the Sharm el-Sheikh stage and on the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier bore the usual American show-off—spectacular on the surface but hollow underneath.

Similarly, no mission has been accomplished in Gaza—the enclave is on the precipice of another round of bloodshed.

In his rambunctious and deranged self at the Knesset, Trump even praised Benjamin Netanyahu for using powerful American weapons “very well” in Gaza—which have killed civilians in thousands—because “that’s what led to peace”.

The Egypt peace summit was a nauseating tableau of power play in which participating nations did their cameos as protagonist Trump towered above the obsequious lot. It was a pageant, not a peace summit—organised by a reckless man, a maverick whose USP is chaos.

Implementing Trump’s peace plan—lacking in specifics and planning—fully is a mirage. But for now, he’s basking in the fake glory of having ended the Gaza War and monetising every moment of it.

Gaza’s precarious reality hit hard barely a week after Trump’s two spells of boisterousness.

On October 19, Israel killed 45 Gazans in air and artillery strikes after Hamas ambushed and killed 2 Israeli soldiers in Rafah. Later, Israel announced that the ceasefire, under phase one of the peace plan, and aid delivery would resume the next day.

The Gaza Government Media Office alleged that Israel has killed around 97 Palestinians and wounded 230 since the start of the ceasefire, and violated the truce agreement 80 times. As of October 20, 68,159 Gazans have been killed and 170,203 wounded since October 2023.

Even the first phase hasn’t been completely implemented. Hamas was supposed to return all living hostages and the remains of the dead. Subsequently, Israel was to release 250 life sentence prisoners and 1,700 Gazans detained after the October 7 Hamas terrorist attack. However, Hamas hasn’t returned the remains of 13 dead hostages.

Bloody Insurgency, Fight for Supremacy

The US was responsible for the Iraqi insurgency (2003-11). Despite the CIA’s warning about the high risk of a political and ethnic conflict after Hussein’s overthrow, Bush appointed the inexperienced Bremer without consulting secretary of state Colin Powell and NSA Condoleezza Rice.

Bremer’s CPA orders to exclude members of the Ba’ath Party from the new government and disband the Iraqi Army, under vice-president Dick Cheney’s instructions and against the advice of senior military and CIA officers, triggered a violent insurgency.

The Ba’athists were angry. Almost 400,000 soldiers were immediately jobless. A vast pool of frustrated, angry and jobless youths, several of them armed, was an easy source of recruitment for jihadist organisations.

The insurgents, numbering 3,000-7,000, comprised Ba’athists (Army and intelligence officers), nationalists, Salafists, Shias (Badr Organisation, Mahdi Army and Muqtada al-Sadr followers) and al-Qaida members, and were mainly active in and around Fallujah, Samarra and Baghdad.

Pitted against the superior multinational coalition force, the insurgents resorted to IEDs, car bombs, suicide attacks, ambushes, sniper attacks and guerrilla warfare.

Gaza could turn out to be another stage for the battle of supremacy between Hamas and other armed factions.

In fact, Trump has turned Gaza into a more dangerous place.

Trump’s recklessness, juvenility and flip-flop in dealing with Hamas have all the ingredients of turning Gaza into an Iraq-like cauldron.

One of the most contentious points in his peace plan is that Hamas should disarm. However, neither the group has agreed to lay down its arms nor has there been any discussion about it. Moreover, it’s not about disarming Hamas; it’s about ending its two-decade-old entrenched position in Gaza’s political and security apparatus.

Trump has emboldened the terrorist group.

After returning to the White House, Trump threatened Hamas several times but never acted.

Despite being debilitated both in numbers and power, Hamas has now come out of hiding, executing Israeli ‘collaborators’ on the streets and policing north Gaza after the withdrawal of Israeli troops to the Yellow Line.

The demarcation, the first of three planned IDF withdrawals, has divided the coastal enclave in half with Israel controlling 53 per cent of it. Hamas’s brazen public executions have proved that it is the only security provider to Gazans in the remaining 47 per cent.

After Hamas’s public executions, only three days after the ceasefire, Trump said that if the group continued to kill Gazans, “we will have no choice but to go in and kill them”.

In his latest threats, which resemble those uttered by a school bully, he asked Hamas to “behave” or else “you will be eradicated”.

Trump is solely responsible for Hamas’s resurgence.

On the one hand, he warns and threatens Hamas. On the other hand, he publicly admitted to giving Hamas “approval for a period of time” to “stop the problems”.

In other words, Trump has greenlighted a battle for dominance between Hamas and other terrorist groups, some allegedly backed by Israel, in Gaza.

“They [Hamas] do want to stop the problems, and they’ve been open about it, and we gave them approval for a period of time,” he told the media aboard Air Force One on his way to Israel and Egypt on October 12.

Trump’s idiocy has triggered a fight for dominance that could derail his peace plan mid-way.

Other terrorist groups see this as an opportune moment to challenge Hamas’s supremacy. Hamas, in turn, has launched a crackdown against rivals.

Two days after the October 10 ceasefire, Hamas killed 33 members of the Doghmosh clan, one of the largest, most powerful and well-armed groups, in Gaza City.

Clan leader Mumtaz Doghmosh, not seen since the October 7 Hamas attack, led the Popular Resistance Committees’ armed wing in Gaza City and formed the Army of Islam, an Islamic State (IS) affiliate. In fact, it plotted attacks in collaboration with Hamas’s Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades and was part of the 2006 cross-border attack to capture Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. The clan has links with Fatah’s Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades.

The Doghmosh clan is also alleged to have been affiliated with Israel, but it has denied the allegations.

The Abu Shabab clan, or the Popular Forces militia, a Bedouin group based in Rafah and led by Yasser Abu Shabab, operates in southern Gaza. Hamas has accused Shabab of operating in collusion with Israel since the IDF still occupies southern Gaza.

Another group that operates in southern Gaza is the Al-Majayda clan. Based in Khan Younis, the group fought with Hamas in recent months with the latest clash earlier this month that killed several members of both groups. Though opposed to Hamas, some clan members are affiliated with it and Fatah. Hamas has accused the group of having ties with the Abu Shabab.

Several other clans operate in Gaza. It’s an entangled web of shifting alliances, opportunism and double-cross in the race for supremacy.

The fight has become dirtier with Israel backing some Hamas rival clans. According to reports , Israel supports Shabab’s Popular Forces, which had looted aid trucks to resell to Gazans.

Israel also supports the Strike Force Against Terror, formed by Hussam al-Astal, a member of the al-Majida clan. Hamas and Al-Astal’s group clashed early this month before the ceasefire. Al-Astal, a former security officer in the Palestinian Authority (PA), allegedly collaborated with Israel in the 1990s. Per Israeli media reports, he also has ties with Shabab, which makes Israel’s support more evident.

In giving a free rein to Hamas, Trump has turned Gaza into a quagmire without realising that the group is the biggest obstacle to his peace plan, especially point one. “Gaza will be a deradicalised terror-free zone that does not pose a threat to its neighbours.”

As long as Hamas is armed, with no intention of disarming, Hamas can’t be a terror-free zone and will continue to pose a threat to Israel.

Neither point 13, which calls for the destruction of “all military, terror and offensive infrastructure, including tunnels and weapon production facilities”, is feasible with Hamas in control.

The “demilitarisation of Gaza under the supervision of independent monitors, which will include placing weapons permanently beyond use through an agreed process of decommissioning” is impossible as long as Hamas fiends patrol the streets and execute people publicly.

However, Trump, a consummate liar, already proclaimed last week that Hamas would disarm. “I spoke to Hamas, and I said, ‘You’re going to disarm, right?’ ‘Yes, sir, we’re going to disarm.’ That’s what they told me,” he told reporters at the White House.

Trump’s peace plan has another point that could trigger an Iraq-like insurgency.

Trump has already sent 200 troops to the north of Gaza in Israel to coordinate the fragile ceasefire and stabilise the enclave with Egyptian, Qatari and Emirati troops expected to join them.

Point 15 calls for a temporary International Stabilisation Force (ISF) to be deployed in Gaza to train and support “vetted Palestinian police forces”, and the force “will be the long-term internal security solution”.

So far, no country has fully committed to the ISF with unconfirmed reports indicating that Pakistan, Indonesia and Azerbaijan are the top contenders. Moreover, the ISF, which will reportedly be headed by Egypt, will not be a UN peacekeeping force despite acting under its mandate.

There’s no guarantee that Hamas and the other terrorist organisations will not start an Iraq-like insurgency against the ISF.

The ISF, despite comprising troops from Muslim and Arab nations, will be an occupying force—an idea anathema to any country. In fact, countries fear that sending troops to Gaza will pit them against Hamas, unless it disarms, and are reluctant to commit.

Trump’s Paul ‘Blair’ Bremer Ready for Gaza

Bremer not only symbolised the American mismanagement, corruption and short-sightedness post-Iraq War, but he also pushed the country into a blackhole of insurgency and political uncertainty.

The American de facto chief civilian administrator of Iraq (May 2003-June 2004) was a disaster for Iraq.

US audit agencies discovered that the CPA handed over truckloads of dollars without any accountability. More than a hundred contracts worth billions awarded to corporations were probed. Moreover, $8.8 billion spent by the new Iraqi interim government while Bremer was in charge was unaccounted for.

Bremer ensured political turmoil. He backed Allawi to become the president of the CPA-established provisional government, the Iraqi Governing Council (IGC), and later the prime minister of the Iraqi Interim Government. The British-educated Allawi, a Shia US puppet, had no experience and was in exile in London for 30 years before being summoned by his master. His party lost both the January and December 2005 parliamentary elections.

Political instability gripped Iraq after the US invasion. Since then, the democratic yet dysfunctional political system has been plagued by sectarian divisions and widespread corruption. Infighting among Shia, Sunni and Kurdish political elites has resulted in political paralysis, lack of accountability, corruption, poor public services and infrastructure and high unemployment.

Similarly, point 9 in Trump’s peace plan is nothing but Bremer’s CPA in disguise—a hogwash that will destabilise Gaza further, alienate Gazans and colonise the enclave.

“Gaza will be governed under the temporary transitional governance of a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee responsible for delivering the day-to-day running of public services and municipalities for the people in Gaza,” the plan reads.

Here comes Trump’s Paul Bremer into the picture.

Former British PM Tony Blair, an architect of the Iraq War, who not only believed Curveball’s bollocks but also his government’s September 2022 Iraq Dossier —which wrongly claimed that Iraq could launch chemical weapons in 45 minutes—will run Gaza for five years before handing it over to the PA.

According to his plan, Blair, called a “war criminal” by critics in West Asia, will chair the Gaza International Transitional Authority (GITA) and administer the enclave for five years without involving the PA or Hamas.

A leaked draft plan of the transitional authority , published by the Israeli daily Haaretz last month, shows that merely managing Gaza for three years would entail expenses of $90 million in the first year, $134 million in the second, and $164 million in the third.

GITA, to be established by a UNSC resolution, will comprise international billionaires and technocrats who will have “supreme political and legal authority for Gaza during the transitional period”.

A ‘Board of Peace’ consisting of 7-10 members, including Blair, and chaired by Trump will oversee and supervise GITA.

Marc Rowan, a billionaire owner of one of America’s largest private equity firms; Naguib Sawiris, an Egyptian billionaire in telecommunications and technology; and Aryeh Lightstone, CEO of the Abraham Accords Peace Institute, are the three potential members.

The Board will also include a senior UN official, and “at least, one qualified Palestinian representative” and other Muslim members—all from a business background.

The Gaza transitional authority is a deliberate attempt to keep Palestinians out.

First, Board members will be appointed by the UNSC without Palestinian consensus. In the first two years, the members will not even operate from Gaza but from Egypt and Jordan.

Second, a body called the Palestinian Executive Authority, comprising the ministries of health, education, water supply and energy, housing, local criminal justice and welfare, is at the bottom of GITA’s hierarchy, meaning it will have the least power and no independence. Even the Authority’s chairman will be appointed by the Board.

The Gaza transitional government will be a farce with almost no Palestinian representation or power. Trump and Netanyahu have ensured that the PA is kept out of Gaza’s administration.

GITA is, in fact, worse than Bremer’s CPA. Though ordinary Iraqis didn’t view the CPA-established 25-member IGC as independent of the US, it, at least, represented tribal leaders, secular politicians, religious Muslim conservatives, exiles, tribal leaders and women. Shias were allotted 13 seats and the rest were divided among Sunni Arabs, Kurds, Assyrians and Turkmen.

According to the Council on Foreign Relations, an American think tank focused on US foreign policy and international relations, the IGC’s “ethnic and religious make-up was far more representative than any previous Iraqi government, and the Shia majority, for the first time in Iraqi history, had a leading voice in politics”.

Forget about a two-state solution. Trump’s Gaza peace plan is merely a five-year business proposal in which corporations come first and Palestinians last under a former war-mongering prime minister.

The writer is a freelance journalist with more than two decades of experience and comments primarily on foreign affairs. He tweets as @FightTheBigots. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.