 "India is a quagmire for the Trump administration, which it cannot manipulate. Image: AP")
US President Donald Trump has been unilaterally commenting on India in his press conferences, each time being countered on the validity of his statements. It began with him claiming to be behind the ceasefire in Operation Sindoor.
For Pakistan, Trump’s announcement was a life-saving opportunity, a face saver from the humiliation of an overt defeat. Hence, Pakistanis recommended him for a Nobel award, claiming he stopped a potential nuclear conflict. None in the world, other than Trump, believes it could have expanded into a nuclear war. The world is aware that India humiliated Pakistan in just 88 hours.
Despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi publicly calling Trump’s statements a lie, he continues to claim credit. The latest being asking Shehbaz Sharif to repeat his comments made in the White House from the stage during the Gaza peace summit in Sharm El Sheikh in Egypt. The US 50 per cent tariffs and sanctions on India emerged post India refusing to give Trump credit, thereby denying his claims for a Nobel award.
His lapdogs, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Advisor Peter Navarro, began commenting on India’s closed markets, backing Trump’s statements that India must be punished, the pretext being the Ukraine war, the truth being India terming Trump a liar. Howard Lutnick stated, ‘Yes, in a month or two months, I think India is going to be at the table, and they’re going to say they’re sorry, and they’re going to try to make a deal with Donald Trump.’ Nothing happened. India’s determination not to bend to US pressures forced them into silence. Neither has commented on India in weeks.
The reason why neither PM Modi nor EAM Jaishankar attended the Gaza peace summit was because they expected Trump to grab media attention and re-announce his ceasefire claims, as well as try to get Modi and Sharif to shake hands on the stage as he did with the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Countering Trump on the global stage would have been detrimental to ties, while accepting in silence would be politically embarrassing. It was maturity and understanding of Trump’s skewed mindset which avoided an embarrassment for both nations.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsTrump’s latest statement claiming that PM Modi promised him that he would stop procuring Russian oil, though it would take time, is another example of a one-sided announcement. India once again hit back, stating that there was no conversation between the two leaders. For Trump, India stopping procurement of Russian oil was imperative for the application of pressure on Moscow to stop the conflict.
The reality is vastly different. India began procuring Russian oil when global prices had risen to over $100 per barrel. India could not risk its economy being impacted by rising oil prices. Currently, they are hovering around $65, offering India a chance to expand its procurement base beyond Russia. This expansion could include purchasing from the US too. As the Ministry of External Affairs has emphasised, India’s policy on energy imports is guided by safeguarding the interests of Indian consumers in a volatile energy market.
India is a quagmire for the Trump administration, which it cannot influence. India’s rising economy, military power and market give it the power to adopt strategic autonomy and turn down pressures. Hence, the Indo-American trade dispute remains confined to trade and has not impacted military and strategic ties, which continue to flourish.
Despite ongoing trade talks, including backchannel dialogue, India has shown an unwillingness to bend on its principles. It will never open its farm and dairy sector, nor would it degrade its ties with Russia nor leave the Brics, another of Trump’s targets. On the contrary, India will assume the presidency of the Brics in January 2026, and the next leaders’ summit will be in India.
The US will have to negotiate the trade deal within India’s red lines. In the long term it cannot lose the Indian market or its partnership. Recently the IMF raised India’s growth forecast to 6.6 per cent despite US-imposed tariffs. India’s exports increased to the UAE, Spain, China, Bangladesh and Egypt while reducing to the US, displaying a modest 0.8 per cent growth over the previous year. Hence, India can hold out against Trump’s threats.
Adding to US problems is China stopping the export of rare earth minerals to the US, even from third parties. Unlike China, India is not retaliating against the US, leaving doors open for concluding a trade agreement and restoration of ties. With China imposing restrictions, the US is bound to feel the pinch.
Scott Bessent, the US secretary of treasury, who had earlier termed India, Russia and China as ‘bad actors’ for fuelling the Ukraine war, needing to be dealt with, is now singing a different tune. In a recent interview with Fox Business on China imposing restrictions on rare earths, he stated, ‘I expect that we will get substantial global support from the Europeans, from the Indians, and from the democracies in Asia.’ He termed Chinese actions as ‘China versus the rest of the world.’
However, Trump’s unilateral and illogical statements are compelling India to publicly display its strategic autonomy. New Delhi will have to continue enhancing defence and economic ties with Russia, as well as oil procurements, albeit depending on market rates. India can never cede to US pressures, as it would be political suicide.
The opposition within the country is seeking to corner the government on Trump’s claims, further nudging it to push closer to Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to New Delhi in December is another indicator of India adhering to its strategic autonomy.
As the US-China trade war heats up, it will need to resolve its differences with India. China has been signalling an acceptance of increased Indian imports. Washington cannot let India move into the Chinese camp, either strategically or on trade. The current round of trade talks, with Trump’s lapdogs silent, does send a message that differences can be resolved. Whatever course the US takes, it will ultimately have to remain within India’s redlines, as India continues to expand its oil procurements and defence purchases from diverse global sources in pursuit of its national interests. The stumbling block is Trump and his off-the-cuff remarks.
The author is a former Indian Army officer, strategic analyst and columnist. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.