 "US President Donald Trump turns to Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif amid his speech at the summit on ending the Gaza war, amid a US-brokered prisoner-hostage swap and ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. Reuters")
Pakistan’s sudden-found bonhomie with the US has given its hybrid government a feeling that its relations with America, frozen for almost a decade, are on the heal and that it can depend on Washington for support, especially during a conflict with India. Field Marshal Asim Munir’s lunch at the White House, being a special invitee for the farewell ceremony of the commander of the US Central Command, and subsequently accompanying Shehbaz Sharif to the Oval Office are events that grabbed media headlines in Pakistan.
Two high-level interactions in the White House at close intervals are something out of the ordinary. Pakistan too is playing to Trump’s ego at every stage, whether it be Gaza, the Nobel Peace Award, or offering rare earths. No wonder the Pakistani leadership believes it is being favoured. Simultaneously, India-US relations are at an ebb.
Trump placing amongst the lowest tariff rate of 19 per cent on Pakistan as compared to 50 per cent (including sanctions for Russian oil) on India displays his favour for a nation treated as a pariah by him in his first term. It was Trump who, in 2017, had stopped military aid worth $2 billion annually to Pakistan.
Even militarily, Pakistan has benefitted. It was announced that it would receive AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) from the US. Subsequently, it was clarified that the announcement concerns only upgrades to the software, not the supply of new weapon systems.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsThe US has designated the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) as a terrorist organisation and has also recommenced its counter-terrorism dialogue with Pakistan. This will enable Islamabad to exploit US support against the BLA, especially since the rare earth contract is inked and the BLA has threatened it. Munir had requested Trump to recommence the military training and exchange programme, which may also be granted.
For the US, the re-discovery of Islamabad as a trusted ally cannot be without reason. Businessman Trump never gives free lunches. Apart from the crypto deal signed on 26 April between Trump’s family-controlled World Liberty Financial and Pakistan’s Crypto Council, there is also the aspect of Trump being nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize, which led to a luncheon meeting between Asim Munir and Trump.
The US exploited Pakistan into backing the Gaza peace plan, despite it being modified. While Pakistan’s deputy foreign minister criticised the plan, claiming it was not the same as presented by Muslim nations, Shehbaz Sharif supported it. Pakistan will also be compelled to deploy peacekeepers under the command of Blair and Trump in Gaza. If Pakistan deploys, Arab nations may also follow suit. Thus far, only Indonesia has committed.
The US is also engaged in repairing Pakistan’s damaged air bases and aircraft hit by Indian strikes in Operation Sindoor. The Chinese have been kept away as repairs include US F-16s and C-130s hit by India. Reports mention that Pakistan has released $400-470 million for these repairs, which would be paid to US contractors. As an alternative to avoid higher tariffs, Pakistan accepted the import of US oil. The first shipment of one million barrels of oil is expected to reach Pakistan this month.
Pakistan is also doing its part to keep Trump happy. It dispatched a consignment of rare earth minerals to the US. As per reports, the US company, US Strategic Metals, which inked an MoU with Pakistan’s Frontier Works Organisation (a military-run enterprise) last month, was involved in the despatch. Evidently, the Pakistan Army is gaining from the deal, not the government.
If the US is able to continue extracting these minerals, it will enable it to overcome the stranglehold placed on it by China. Pakistan is reported to possess $6 trillion worth of rare earth deposits in Balochistan. How this will materialize, when the Chinese have failed due to unrest in the region, is to be seen. If unrest increases, Pakistan will blame India, Iran, and Afghanistan for being behind it, hoping for the US to enhance pressure.
Simultaneously, Pakistan has offered the US the option of building and running a port in the town of Pasni in Balochistan. It is estimated that the cost of establishing the port is $1.2 billion and the funding would involve both Pakistan and US-backed finance. The port is 70 miles from the Chinese-built Gwadar and 100 miles from the Pakistan-Iran border. Thus far, there has been no response from the US. If built and utilized, it will have strategic implications in the long term.
Pakistan needs funding from US-backed global institutions as also US support, despite its dependence on China. Recently, the IMF has sought clarifications on $11 billion financial irregularities. The Pakistan government would seek to brush this under the carpet and would need Washington’s backing.
If Trump is giving Pakistan special attention, then it must have other reasons too. Pakistan borders Iran, and its ties with the Middle East benefit US strategy. Monitoring Iran’s actions is better from Pakistan, while Pakistan’s recent security pact with Saudi Arabia implies deployment of Pakistani troops in case Yemen challenges Riyadh, avoiding the use of American forces.
It could also include sending a message to India as well as drawing Pakistan away from China. As far as India is concerned, not adhering to US demands of stopping procurement of Russian oil, snapping ties with Moscow, BRICS and SCO, while accepting a trade deal on US terms, has led to deterioration in ties. Added is India’s refusal to acknowledge Trump’s role in stopping the India-Pakistan conflict. India’s rapprochement with China implies the loss of an anti-China ally.
However, India is a hard nut to crack. It is not a nation that will bend backwards to please Trump as Pakistan is doing. Its economic might, large market, and growing military power give it the ability to follow its strategic autonomy. A recent IMF forecast mentions India will be the world’s fastest-growing major economy with a projected 6.4 per cent growth for 2025-2026, despite tariffs from Trump.
Ultimately, the US will be the loser. If it has to push China on trade and other concessions, it needs a strong anti-China coalition in the Indo-Pacific. Without India, the coalition can never be strong. India is aware and is playing a game of patience.
What a change in Indo-American relations. PM Modi visited Washington in February and was offered F-35s and much more, as also praised. A few months down the line and it is Pakistan which is being favoured. For India, the message is clear: the US cannot be depended upon.
It can change gears and arm your enemy if you refuse to toe their line and turn down their bidding. It has done so with many of its allies. Slowly, India will move away from the US, even in defence deals, despite US promises to the contrary. The relationship nurtured over decades is being damaged by one individual for personal interests.
The only silver lining is that Trump is neither permanent nor will his legacy continue. However, for India, relying on the US as a preferred ally is risky, and it must not place the majority of its eggs in the American basket.
The author is a former Indian Army officer, strategic analyst and columnist. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.