Trump 2.0: How it may impact India-US relations

The Republican presidential nomination race is almost over with Donald Trump winning the New Hampshire primary. While the Granite State has less than 2 per cent (22) of the 1,215 delegates needed (out of 2,249) for the nomination, its early spot on the calendar plays a significant role. A Trump win in the South Carolina primary on 24 February would deal a nearly irreversible blow to Nikki Haley’s presidential ambitions for now. He already leads her by 37 points among Republicans nationwide, according to the  latest Reuters/Ipsos poll. Trump’s nomination is assured but doesn’t guarantee an Oval Office return. Recent polls show him and Biden in a dead heat or a one to two-point difference. In the most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll earlier this month, an equal percentage of respondents, 35 per cent, said that they would vote for Trump and Biden. A Gallup poll showed Trump leading Biden (41 per cent) by only one point (42 per cent). In The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s national polling average, both were neck-and-neck in a hypothetical rematch with Trump at 44.3 per cent and Biden at 43.1 per cent. If Trump snags the White House in a stunning Clevelandish comeback in November, would India-US relations become better, worse or remain the same? That’s the big question for India—especially if Prime Minister Narendra Modi romps home for the third time in 2024. Trump is a maverick and radically non-conformist. His equations with world leaders—like Modi, the late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Russian President Vladimir Putin or North Korean leader Kim Jong-un—are well-known. Trump and Modi kicked off during their first meeting at the White House in June 2017 with the US president saying that bilateral ties were “never stronger” and India “has a true friend in the White House”.

Sharing my remarks at the joint press meet with @POTUS at the @WhiteHouse. https://t.co/D4OYlPDfav pic.twitter.com/vMOnAXhgcs

— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) June 27, 2017

“During my campaign, I pledged that if elected, India will have a true friend in the White House and that’s now exactly what you have—a true friend,” Trump said. Around two years later, in September 2019, the 90-minute “Howdy, Modi!” show in Houston, Texas, featured 400 performers and a 50,000-strong crowd. “I’m so thrilled to be here in Texas with one of America’s greatest, most devoted and most loyal friends, Prime Minister Modi of India,” Trump said. Modi returned the effusive praise by vouching for Trump’s second term in 2020. “Ab ki baar, Trump sarkar,” he said. Less than six months later, their friendship was cemented further during the “Namaste Trump” event in Ahmedabad in February 2020. “America loves India, respects India. India gives hope to all of humanity,” said Trump as 125,000 people cheered him on. Modi is an “exceptional leader, a man I am proud to call my true friend”. Modi also emphasised the new dawn in the US-India relationship. “India-US relations are no longer just another partnership; it’s a far greater and closer relationship.” America first, personal equation second For Trump, it’s only “America First” and “Make America Great Again (MAGA)” even if he develops a personal rapport with a leader. Trump’s relationship with Abe was the best example of how maintaining American interests was his prime goal despite their bonding. Tough trade talk clouded his Japan visit in May 2019 as Trump teed off with Abe in Tokyo. While Abe hoped to make the US-Japan alliance “even more unshakeable”, Trump was unhappy with the trade imbalance and the agriculture and beef trade differences. Therefore, several factors will decide the future of India-US ties in Trump’s second term. First, the India-US trade imbalance annoyed Trump in his first term. America was India’s biggest trading partner in 2022-23 with bilateral trade rising to $128.55 against $119.5 billion in 2021-22 and $80.51 billion in 2020-21. But since 2018, the US trade deficit with India has been rising—$20.9 billion in 2018, $23.3 billion in 2019, $24.1 billion in 2020, $33.1 billion in 2021 and $45.7 billion in 2022. In his second innings, Trump will try to reduce the trade imbalance with India. Despite trade and investment being one of the main components of thriving bilateral relations, the US is concerned about market access and other trade barriers. In May 2019, Washington suspended the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) programme for India following New Delhi’s price caps on medical equipment. India was the largest GSP beneficiary and exported duty-free goods worth $6 billion to the US annually. Second, India’s high import duties have riled Trump, who described India as a “tariff king” in 2019. At a “Keep America Great” rally in Colorado in February 2020, three days before his India visit, he said, “They’ve [India] been hitting us very, very hard for many, many years … whether people like it or not, we are putting America first.” In the same month, US trade representative Robert Lighthizer cancelled his India visit reportedly over increased tariffs in the Budget on shoes, children’s tricycles and furniture. However, Trump conveniently forgot that India imposed retaliatory tariffs in June 2019 only after his administration slapped a 25 per cent import duty on steel and 10 per cent on several Indian aluminium products citing national security reasons. According to the Congressional Research Service, India opposed US “Section 232” tariffs on steel and aluminium. “After losing its GSP eligibility, India applied retaliatory tariffs of an additional 10 per cent-25 per cent affecting about $1.3 billion of US exports, including nuts, apples, chemicals, and steel.” When India and US challenged the tariffs at the World Trade Organization, Washington “rejected the 2022 WTO dispute panel reports that held that its Section 232 measures violated WTO rules”. India should brace for a “retribution” in the tariff war in a second Trump era. He has clarified that if India is “charging us, we charge them”. “If India is charging us too, so what I want to have is a—call it retribution. You could call it whatever you want,” he told Larry Kudlow of Fox Business News in August 2023. “I mean, I saw it with Harley-Davidson … They have 100 per cent and 150 per cent and 200 per cent tariffs,” he added. “They can sell that into our country with no tax, no tariff, but when you make a Harley, when you send it over there … the tariff is so high that nobody wants it.” Third, the nations also have an ongoing Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) war, especially regarding medicines. In 2022 and 2023, India was on the US “Special 301” Priority Watch List with the Biden administration concerned about India’s patent treatment, especially for agriculture, biotechnology, and pharmaceutical products. The 2023  Special 301 Report termed India one of the world’s “most challenging” big economies regarding IPR protection and enforcement and expressed concerns about patents. “… There continues to be a lack of progress on longstanding IP concerns raised in prior Special 301 Reports,” the US said. Fourth, Modi’s “Make in India” drive could collide with Trump’s “America First” mission. Modi wants to promote and encourage domestic companies to manufacture products and establish India as a manufacturing powerhouse by reducing import dependency. On the other hand, Trump wants to leverage America’s market dominance to win at the negotiation table by pushing other nations to buy more American industrial goods, energy products and farm produce. H1B visa restrictions  The H-1B visa programme has played a prominent role in the rise and success of Indian-Americans, especially in the software industry. Indians account for 73.9 per cent out of the total number of H1B visa holders in the USA. The US Citizenship and Immigration Service (USCIS) receives 85,000 H1-B visa applications annually. According to the USCIS, 72.6 per cent of 410,195 people—including individuals who received new visas, changes of status to H-1B and extensions of existing visas—admitted to the US under H-1B status in FY22 were of Indian-origin. In the previous fiscal, 74 per cent of the 405,405 H-1B visa applicants approved in were of Indian-origin. Trump, who pledged to protect American jobs and rallied against immigration, banned foreign workers, especially H1-B visa holders, in June 2020 following the pandemic-induced national lockdown. Aiming to create jobs for Americans affected economically, he extended the ban till March 31, 2021, despite resistance from tech giants like Google. It will not be surprising if Trump reimposes the restrictions. The denial rate for new H1-B applications jumped to 24 per cent in FY 2018 and 21 per cent in FY 2019. Considering his rhetoric against immigration, Indian H1-B aspirants could face a tough time. Trump would be emboldened to impose stricter restrictions with Biden’s proposed H-1B rule containing a restriction on specialty occupations, similar to his October 2020 interim rule. In the same month, the department of labour increased the minimum required wage above the market rate to keep most H-1B visa holders out. In June, Trump had suspended the entry of H-1B, L-1 and other temporary visa holders. Trump’s U-turn on China Undoubtedly, the India-US alliance has strengthened under Biden. However, India should not find itself pitted against the other in the bigger game of US-China powerplay in the Indo-Pacific. Moreover, Trump is a non-interventionist and wanted to extricate American troops from quagmires abroad—for example, the peace deal with the Taliban in February 2020. “I want to get out of everything [every war in which the US is involved],” Trump said during a meeting with his top Generals at his Bedminster, New Jersey, golf club, then-national security adviser John Bolton wrote in his book The Room Where It Happened: A White House Memoir. Trump often attacked China for ‘IPR violation’ and ‘forcing US companies to transfer sensitive’ tech to do business. In 2018 and 2019, he slapped tariffs on thousands of imports from China under Section 301 of the Trade Act, 1974, valued around $370 billion. However, Trump’s most dangerous trait is making U-turns for personal aggrandisement. After hitting China with tariffs, he shockingly urged President Xi Jinping to help him win the 2020 election. During a one-on-one meeting at the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, in June 2019, Trump alluded to “China’s capability to affect the ongoing campaigns, pleading with Xi to ensure he’d win”, Bolton writes. “He stressed the importance of farmers, and increased Chinese purchases of soybeans and wheat in the electoral outcome.” A year later, after meeting Xi, Trump criticised the Chinese aggression in eastern Ladakh. “China’s aggressive stance along the India-China border fits with a larger pattern of Chinese aggression in other parts of the world and these actions only confirm the true nature of the Chinese Communist Party,” the White House said in July 2020. In September, Trump offered to mediate between India and China. Describing the situation as “very nasty”, he told the media that the US “was ready to help with respect to China and India. If we can do anything, we would love to get involved and help”. Bolton explains that every significant Trump decision during his tenure was “driven by re-election calculations”. Trump’s flip-flop on Pakistan  American interests have always overshadowed India-Pakistan relations irrespective of a Republican or Democrat president. Operation Cyclone, the CIA programme which financed and armed the Mujahideen in Afghanistan from 1979 to 1992, was launched during the presidency of Jimmy Carter, a Democrat. As planeloads of Stingers landed in Pakistan and took down the Soviet Hinds, the US ignored Pakistani President Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq’s Operation Tupac, which launched a proxy war against India. The US continued providing military aid to Pakistan despite hard evidence of terrorist groups like JeM and LeT attacking India while operating from there. Between 2002 and 2016, the US provided around $14 billion in aid to Pakistan. Ironically, the biggest assistance of $2,100 million was in 2011, when Osama bin Laden was eliminated by the Navy Seal Team Six in a compound located around a mile from the Pakistan Military Academy, in Abbottabad, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. However, US assistance didn’t stop. After the al-Qaeda chief’s killing, Barack Obama, another Democrat, requested around $3 billion in foreign aid for Pakistan and an additional $2.3 billion to help its counterterrorism efforts for FY12. Trump stopped the financial assistance in 2018. “No more!” he tweeted on January 1 blasting Pakistan for its “lies and deceit” and providing “haven to terrorists”.

The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies & deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools. They give safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help. No more!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 1, 2018

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A few days after his tweet, the US suspended $255 military aid to Pakistan. In November, another $1.66 billion in security assistance was blocked after Trump said that Pakistan was hiding bin Laden. However, one month later, Trump asked then-Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan for help in the faltering Afghan peace dialogue. In a letter addressed to Khan in December, Trump requested “Pakistan’s full support” to advance the talks and recognised Islamabad’s ability to deny the Taliban sanctuary on its territory. During Khan’s July 2019 US visit, Trump said, “I think Pakistan is going to help us out to extricate ourselves [from Afghanistan].” Moreover, he said that the $1.3 billion aid could be restored after realising that Pakistan was crucial to a deal with the Taliban and to ensure that it didn’t shelter terrorists. Trump even sided with Pakistan regarding mediation in the Kashmir dispute despite India’s official policy of no third-party interference. “If I can help, I would love to be a mediator,” he said when Khan requested mediation and claimed that Modi had asked him to help solve the dispute—though India rejected his claim. In September 2019, Trump twice offered to mediate in the Kashmir problem despite issuing a joint statement during Modi’s visit to France as a special G7 Summit invitee that Kashmir is a bilateral issue and Article 370 is India’s internal matter. “I am willing to help them if they want. They know that. That [offer] is out there,” he told the media at the White House. A day after the “Howdy, Modi!” event, Trump repeated the offer before meeting Khan on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. “I would be willing to help if both wanted,” he told reporters. Shockingly, Trump’s offers came right after  Khan raised the spectre of a nuclear war over Kashmir following the Trump-Modi G7 meeting. “If the world does nothing to stop the Indian assault on Kashmir and its people, there will be consequences for the whole world as two nuclear-armed states get ever closer to a direct military confrontation,” the Pakistan prime minister wrote in an op-ed in The New York Times. In January 2020, Trump repeated the offer before meeting with Khan on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum, Davos. “We can meditate on the issue. We are working with Pakistan on some borders and we were talking about Kashmir in relation to what is going on between Pakistan and India. If we can help, we certainly will be helping.” India shot back. “Kashmir is a bilateral issue and will have to be solved bilaterally,” the government said. “Talks and terror cannot go together. For any conversation to take place, Pakistan will have to shun terror first.” Trump is all about himself. His offers to mediate between India and China or Pakistan or other global issues aim to bolster his image as an international leader who can end the messiest problems. In his absence, India’s image and power have grown substantially due to its independent foreign policy. India doesn’t play second fiddle to any global power. Trump will be more aggressive, outlandish, radical, and disruptive in his second and last term. He will assert himself all the more. Therefore, India must balance its act with him without compromising its interests. The writer is a freelance journalist with two decades of experience and comments primarily on foreign affairs. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views._ Read all the Latest News, Trending News, Cricket News, Bollywood News, India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.