Time ticks fast for Zelenskyy amid Ukraine war stalemate, West’s shaky belief

The difference in the visage was visibly stark—frustration had eclipsed hope and a frown had replaced the faint smile. Two Time magazine covers within more than a year-and-a-half portrayed Ukraine’s descent into a quagmire sucking the glimmer of hope of a Ukrainian turnaround in the war against Russia. ‘Person of the Year’, screamed the Time December 2022 cover, with the strap ‘Volodymyr Zelenskyy & The Spirit of Ukraine’ celebrating the country’s fierce resistance to Vladimir Putin’s onslaught. A massive picture of a faintly smiling Zelenskyy with hopeful eyes and surrounded by Ukrainian supporters waiving the national flag overshadowed the cover.

TIME's 2022 Person of the Year: Volodymyr Zelensky and the spirit of Ukraine #TIMEPOY https://t.co/06Y5fuc0fG pic.twitter.com/i8ZT3d5GDa

— TIME (@TIME) December 7, 2022

‘Nobody believes in our victory like I do. Nobody’, shouted the TIME October 2023 cover quoting Zelenskyy with the gloomy strap: ‘It’s been nearly two years. Russia still controls a fifth of Ukraine’s territory. Tens of thousands have been killed. Global support for the war is shrinking. The Lonely Fight of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’. This time, a small picture of a frustrated and distraught Zelenskyy with his back to the camera was relegated to the bottom and the reality-laced words eclipsed the cover.

"Nobody believes in our victory like I do. Nobody."

Inside Volodymyr Zelensky's lonely fight to save Ukraine as war fatigue spreads https://t.co/7uvz7N4Bh8 pic.twitter.com/tgaQyasld3

— TIME (@TIME) October 30, 2023

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From ‘Time Person of the Year’, Zelenskyy seems to have been literally reduced to ‘nobody’. Zelenskyy’s quotes reflect the growing anxiousness and vexation as the war drags into its second year. In February 2022, an upbeat and fearless Zelenskyy warned the Russian troops: “If you attack, you will see our faces, not our backs.” Even after Putin recognised Ukraine’s eastern separatist regions Donetsk and Luhansk as the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic, Zelenskyy asked Ukrainians not to panic. “Don’t panic! We are strong and ready for anything. We will defeat everyone because we are Ukraine.” Twenty months into the war, Ukraine’s president increasingly realises the insurmountable Russian odds in the gruelling months-long counteroffensive—which has advanced by only 17 km—his military’s exhaustion and casualties, the rapidly evaporating belief of his Western allies and the stalemate, which he denies in public. In the Time’s October issue, he said, “The scariest thing is that part of the world [the West] got used to the war in Ukraine. Exhaustion with the war rolls along like a wave … we see that as soon as they start to get a little tired, it becomes like a show to them.” Zelenskyy realises his troops are “tired” but refuses to admit that the war has reached an impasse. “People are tired. Everyone is tired. There are different opinions. Everyone is human regardless of status. But this is not a stalemate. I emphasise this once again,” he told the media in European Union Commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s presence in Kyiv last week. “We all need to get together and resolve the issues, work more with our partners on air defence, unblock the skies, and enable our guys to take offensive actions. This is what we need to think about—only about this, not about where we will be tomorrow.” Last month, Zelenskyy asked the West to be realistic in expecting success too soon in the counteroffensive. “We live in a world that gets used to success too quickly,” he said in his nightly video address. Ukraine support losing steam Zelenskyy doesn’t think about tomorrow and wants the allies to be realistic, but the West, especially the United States, is consumed by the prolonged war as assistance worth billions funnelled into the war has failed to breach the massive Russian defence in the east and south. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, America has provided $76.8 billion in financial assistance to Ukraine since the war started—humanitarian aid $3.9 billion, financial $26.4 billion, security $18.3 billion, weapons and equipment $23.5 billion and grants and loans for weapons $4.7 billion. Last week, the House of Representatives passed a Republican Bill to provide $14.3 billion in aid to Israel in its war with Hamas but nothing for Ukraine with 12 Democrats siding with 214 Republicans. President Joe Biden had wanted a comprehensive $106 billion emergency spending package that included Taiwan and Ukraine. The financial assistance to Ukraine is also bothering the American public. A recent Gallup poll showed that 41% of Americans feel that the US is doing too much to back Ukraine compared to 24% in August 2022 and 29% in June 2023. In fact, both Republicans (62%) and independents (44%) feel that the US is doing too much to support Ukraine compared to August 2022. As per the poll, 54% of Americans believe that the US should support Ukraine in reclaiming its former territory as against 66% in August 2022. Moreover, 43% favour the US trying to help end the war quickly even if that means Ukraine ceding territory to Russia. A September Pew Research Centre poll also showed the public’s declining support for Ukraine with only 18% of Americans saying that Washington is not providing enough support to Kyiv compared to 42% in March 2022. The number of Americans extremely or very concerned about a Ukrainian defeat has tanked from 55% in May to 38% today—and 26% aren’t too or not at all concerned about Russia defeating Ukraine as against 16% earlier this year. Among Republicans, 32% feel the US is providing too much support. Moreover, only 16% say America is not providing enough support as against 49% in March. Even the number of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who think that the US isn’t providing enough support to Ukraine has drastically fallen from 38% in March to 20%. Counteroffensive crawls as Russia digs heels The West’s lack of faith in the Ukraine and the counteroffensive’s negligible progress not only divide allies but also Zelenskyy’s inner circle. He denies the stalemate in public, but his commander-in-chief admits it. “Just like in the First World War, we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate,” General Valery Zaluzhny told The Economist last week. Zaluzhny’s most alarming comment proved that “nobody believes in our victory like” Zelenskyy does. “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough,” the General said. A realistic Zaluzhny said that the advanced Western arms and ammunition and the mobilisation of several more brigades in four months should have been enough to reach Crimea and fight the Russians. Igor Zhovka, the deputy head of Zelenskyy’s office, criticised Zaluzhny’s conclusion. “Is this the effect we wanted to achieve with this article?” he told the media. Ukraine’s partners were “in a panic” when they called after Zaluzhny’s comments, he added. A realistic battlefield assessment shows that the euphoria about the counteroffensive, triggered by the initial Russian losses and the Western supply of state-of-the-art tanks (Abrams, Leopard and Challenger) and long-range missiles (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System and Storm Shadow cruise missiles), was wrong. The West’s MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), Stryker armoured fighting vehicles, Bradley Fighting Vehicles, Patriot missile systems, S-300 air defence systems, Starstreak missiles, M777 howitzers, Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzers and NLAW anti-tank missiles have failed to capture territories due to the impenetrable Russian defences. Russia prepared against the counteroffensive as Ukraine delayed it while stocking ammunition and awaiting more Western military aid. A multi-layered network of mines, trenches, anti-tank ditches and concrete ‘dragon’s teeth’ barricades along the nearly 1,000 km frontline has halted the counteroffensive with Russian artillery and missiles pounding Ukrainian targets. Ukraine’s biggest disadvantage is the lack of an effective air force that can match Russian air superiority. The Ukrainian Air Force comprises mainly third- and fourth-generation bombers and fi ghters like Su-24, Su-25, MiG-29 and Su-27. Besides, rainfall has slowed Ukraine’s advance further as the rainiest months of October and November have made navigating heavy equipment extremely difficult. In the southern Kherson city, divided by the waters of the Dnipro, Russians continue to occupy the eastern side with the frontline along the river barely breached. After incremental gains in the southern towns of Velyka Novosilka and Orikhiv, Ukraine has met tough resistance, mainly due to the minefields. Gains have been restricted to recapturing a few villages like Neskuchne, Blahodatne, Makarivka, Staromaiorske and Urozhaine, Except for retaking a few small villages, Ukraine’s progress in the critical southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast region has been slow despite breaching more Russian defensive lines near Robotyne village. Kyiv aims to cut off Moscow’s supply line connecting Rostov-on-Don city to Crimea, but its troops are 80-90 km from the Sea of Azov. In the east, the battle for the devastated Avdiivka town, close to Donetsk, resembles the Bakhmut bloodshed. Repeated Russian bombardment and infantry raids have slowed progress. Momentary successes like the attack on Russia’s Black Sea naval headquarters in Sevastopol, the ATACMCS strike on the airfields near Luhansk and Berdiansk, the Su-24 bombers hit on the missile corvette Askold in Kerch can’t change the course of the war. As the war becomes more excruciating and exhausting, the West’s ammunition stock for Ukraine is depleting fast with troops firing around 2,000-3,000 artillery rounds daily. In July, the Pentagon said that it had provided more than 2 million rounds since the war started. “The United States and its allies are sending to Ukraine a wide range of munitions, but they are not being produced or delivered as quickly as needed,” Thomas S. Warrick, the director of the Future of DHS project at the Scowcroft Centre for Strategy and Security’s Forward Defence programme, wrote last month. Warrick suggested a better speed at which weapons are produced and arrive on the frontlines. “Accelerating both is the only way to overcome the complaints by armchair Generals in Washington that Ukraine’s 2023 offensive has gone too slowly.” America has announced an increase in the rate of 155mm round production from 24,000 to 80,000 monthly by October 2024—that’s one year from now. The US had no option but to supply cluster munitions to Ukraine due to the shortfall in 155mm rounds. Last week, Admiral Rob Bauer of the Netherlands, the chair of the NATO Military Committee, warned at the Warsaw Security Forum that “the bottom of the barrel [ammunition stock] is now visible”. “We give away weapons systems to Ukraine, which is great, and ammunition, but not from full warehouses. We started to give away from half-full or lower warehouses in Europe,” he said. Zaluzhny has realised Ukraine’s and the West’s failure to keep up with Russia’s production of arms and ammunition. “Russia will maintain an advantage in armaments, equipment, rockets and ammunition for some time,” he told The Economist. The General highlighted the importance of electronic warfare systems and the futility of outdated weapons. “[They] are key to winning the drone warfare. This war cannot be won with the weapons of the past generation and outdated methods.” Time is ticking very fast for Zelenskyy, under tremendous pressure to deliver in the war of attrition and maintain the West’s support, especially with his allies now more worried about the Israel-Hamas war. The Ukraine war isn’t receiving the same media attention with news organisations now concentrated on West Asia. “It is obvious the war in the Middle East takes away the focus. I think it is one of the goals of the Russian Federation … It’s a fact. We see the outcomes,” he said in Von der Leyen’s presence. But the counteroffensive had already faltered before the October 7 Hamas attack and the consequent Israeli assault. As one of Zelenskyy’s closest aides said to Time magazine, “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.” The writer is a freelance journalist with two decades of experience and comments primarily on foreign affairs. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views._ Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.