The Weather Report: Temperatures likely to fall but unseasonal rains might harm farmers this week

The dynamics of the weather pattern have been constantly changing since the beginning of March. The unusual heat from February continues to impact north India as the region continues to see +3 to +6°C maximum temperature anomalies. Lack of rain in the Himalayas, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi NCR and Uttar Pradesh is keeping the region warm for a longer time.

During the week of 5th to 9th March, regions in Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, and Jharkhand experienced different conditions compared to other areas in the country. Lower level wind instability, coupled with the Western Disturbance, caused thunderstorms and rains in these regions. The scattered rainfall and cloudy weather led to a decrease in maximum temperatures across central and western India. As a result, anomalies have now returned to normal levels.

Rainfall ending 8:30 am on 7 March:

Chechat – 25mm
Bhungra – 15mm
Jawai Dam – 14mm
Sajjangarh – 12mm
Bagidora – 11mm
Pirawa – 11mm
Mandana – 10mm
Pachpahar – 10mm
Mount Abu – 9mm

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Madhya Pradesh

Vidisha – 38mm
Kolar – 18mm
Chachoda – 17mm
Zirapur – 15mm
Manasa – 12mm
Warla – 12mm
Suvasara – 11mm

Rainfall ending 8:30 am on 9 March:

Uttarakhand

Uttarkashi – 25mm
Dunda – 21mm
Garud – 16mm
Janki Chatti – 15mm
Sonprayag – 14mm
Sitlakhet – 11mm

Himachal Pradesh

Mashobra – 22mm
Shimla – 16mm
Sundernagar – 14mm
Kangra – 13mm
Bilaspur – 12mm

Rajasthan

Mt Abu – 25mm
Kishanjganj – 14mm
Jaipur AP – 7mm
Bundi – 7mm

Mumbai was the hottest place in the country on 6 March as it registered a maximum temperature of 39.3°c followed by rain, thunderstorm and isolated hail in parts of the city and suburbs.

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After a brief spell of heat relief over the weekend, the heatwave made a comeback in Konkan and adjoining regions of Karnataka, Maharashtra including the Mumbai Metropolitan Region. Some places have also recorded a maximum temperature of 40°C on 11 March:

Ratnagiri – 36.9°c
Mumbai – 38.5°c
CSMT – 38.7°c
Virar – 38.7°c
Dombivli – 39.0°c
Manor – 39°c
Badlapur – 39.1°c
Mira Road – 39.2°c
Kalyan – 39.3°c
Panvel – 39.3°c
Navi Mumbai – 39.4°c
Thane – 39.4°c
Murbad – 40.1°c
Karjat – 41.0°c
Chiplun – 41.0°c

Here is how the first 11 days of pre-monsoon season fared on the rainfall statistics:

• The Country as a whole received 2.6mm rainfall against the normal of 10.0mm, departure from normal stands at -74%.

Subdivision-wise seasonal rainfall in the period of 1st march till 11 March, 2023:

• Southern Peninsula: Actual 0.3mm against the average of 5.5mm, -94% departure from normal.

• East & North East India: Actual 3.2mm against the average of 15.5mm, -80% departure from normal.

• North West India: Actual 4.7mm against the average of 17.0mm, -72% departure from normal.

• Central India: Actual 1.7mm against the average of 3.6mm, -54% departure from normal.

Current synoptic features influencing weather in India as on 12 March:

• The Western Disturbance as a trough in westerlies in middle and upper tropospheric levels with its axis at 5.8 km above mean sea level now runs roughly along Long. 60°E and to the north of 28°N.

• The trough in westerlies from north Bihar to South Interior Karnataka across Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Telangana and North Interior Karnataka between 5.8 km & 7.6 km above mean sea level persists.

All India weather forecast till 18 March 2023:

The upcoming week starts on a relatively dry and warm note for various parts of the country with a heatwave over some parts in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, coastal Karnataka as maximum temperature is expected in the range of 38 to 41°c, above normal maximum temperature will be observed in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi NCR, Uttar Pradesh, Jammu Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand the anomalies might be as high as +3 to +7°c.

Starting from Wednesday, there will be a sudden shift in the weather patterns across various regions of the country, and this will lead to a prolonged period of exceptionally wet weather that is likely to break previous records.

• The jet streams (Upper level winds) are supposed to dip up to south India which is very unusual for this time of the year this will pave way for back to back active western disturbance to travel India in the next 15 days.

• Lower level wind instability kicks in as the jets dip south, it is an area of dry and warm wind convergence where warm air rises vertically in the atmosphere and gets condensed, this results in the formation of convective clouds.

This time around the instability in the air that looks widespread can result in widespread thunderstorm and hailstorm in various parts of the country during 15-31 March.

Impacted states:

On 13-14th March isolated rains and thunderstorms are expected over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi NCR, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.

As the instability get cooked in the peninsula, Moderate to heavy rains, lightning strikes, hailstorm to begin in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Odisha from 15 and 16 of March, later on a fresh western disturbance will join hands with the wind convergence this will enhance rains and hailstorms at the Himalayas along with Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Delhi NCR, UttarPradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal from 17th March till 21 March.

Pan India rainfall during the period of 15 to 21 March will be widespread in nature.

Large-scale changes in weather conditions will lead to a sharp drop in maximum temperatures across the country typically around 17-19th March with a possible anomaly of 5 to 12°c below normal, this would end the ongoing prolonged spell of abnormal temperatures in India but the unseasonal rains would be another burden for the farming community.

Heat in February leads to the quick growth of rabi now when the crop is ready for harvest rain and hails possess the risk of crop damage.

The author, better known as the Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His impact-based forecasts @navdeepdahiya55 are very popular in north India.

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