The Weather Report: North India braces for winter as mercury dips; cyclonic storm to form in central Bay of Bengal

A very rare and intense Western Disturbance that influenced the entire western India on Sunday brought widespread unseasonal heavy rains, fierce thunderstorms and hailstorms across Gujarat, Maharashtra, South Rajasthan and West Madhya Pradesh. The jet streams dipped extremely south and the flow of easterlies from the Bay of Bengal and southwest winds from the Arabian Sea supplied moisture, creating a strong cyclonic circulation and a confluence zone over eastern Gujarat that resulted in the extreme weather event in the region. The confluence zone was too far south; that’s why the remaining parts of Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi NCR, Uttar Pradesh, and even the Himalayas did not experience any precipitation; however, cloudy weather prevailed. [caption id=“attachment_13438092” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Satellite imagery from the evening of 26th November captured WD at its peak intensity[/caption] Unseasonal heavy rains broke records in Gujarat, Surat received 128mm rainfall ending 8:30 AM on 27th November, this is the highest rainfall recorded in 24 hours in the last 3 decades for November. Heavy to very heavy rainfall figures from various stations of Gujarat: Sagbara 140mm Navsari 130mm Umerpada120mm Mandvi 120mm Kukarmunda 110mm Kamrej 100mm Narmada Aws 100mm Netrang 90mm Nadiad 80mm Nizer 70mm Palsana 70mm Ankleshwer 70mm Sankheda 70mm Olpad 70mm Modasa 70mm With this spell of rains, the temperature dipped across the country, Barmer in Rajasthan set a new record with the lowest ever maximum temperature in November as it recorded 17.9°c on Sunday which is 13° below normal. Similarly, various stations in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Delhi NCR, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra witnessed maximum temperature under 25°c on Sunday making it the coldest day of the season in north-west parts of the country. Earlier in the week winters intensified across north India when Safdarjung observatory in Delhi with 9.2°c on 23 November recorded its first single-digit minimum temperature of the season, on the same day Nyoma in Ladakh recorded -15.0°C minimum temperature. [caption id=“attachment_13438122” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Minimum temperature remained above normal, northwest India saw below-normal maximum temperature in November[/caption] Northeast monsoon remained active in Tamil Nadu in the past week, most parts of Chennai experienced good rains on Sunday: Kancheepuram 99mm Anna Nagar 61mm Gummidipondi 56mm Meenambakkam 54mm Cholavaram 50mm Adyar 47mm Shollingnallur 46mm Anna University 45mm Thiruporur 42mm The pan India actual rainfall so far in the period of 1 October till 26 November stands at 75.8mm against the normal of 102.3mm, the departure from normal currently stands at -26 per cent the rainfall deficiency has improved by 1 per cent week over week. Subdivision-wise seasonal rains till 26 November 2023: • Southern Peninsula: Actual 156.1mm against the average of 235.3mm, -34 per cent departure from normal. • East & North East India: Actual 148.4mm against the average of 143.6mm, +3 per cent departure from normal. • North West India: Actual 40.7mm against the average of 31.8mm, +28 per cent departure from normal. • Central India: Actual 26.5mm against the average of 69.5mm, -62 per cent departure from normal. [caption id=“attachment_13438152” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Subdivision-wise seasonal rainfall in India till 26 November 2023[/caption] Current synoptic weather features influencing weather in India as of 27 November 2023: • The Western Disturbance is now seen as a cyclonic circulation over central Pakistan and a neighbourhood between 3.6 km and 5.8 km above mean sea level with a trough aloft in upper tropospheric westerlies between 7.6 km & 12.0 km above mean sea level roughly along Long. 72°E to the north of Lat. 18°N at 0530 hours IST of today. • The induced cyclonic circulation over central Pakistan and adjoining West Rajasthan now lies over northwest Rajasthan & neighbourhood at 3.1 km above mean sea level. • The upper air Trough in easterlies from the Southwest Arabian Sea to the Northeast Arabian Sea now runs from the Southwest Arabian Sea to the Gujarat Region across the Central Arabian Sea and extends up to mid-tropospheric levels. • The embedded cyclonic circulation over the Northeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Saurashtra and Kutch coasts now lies over the Gujarat Region and neighbourhood and extends up to 3.1 km above mean sea level. • The cyclonic circulation over central parts of north Madhya Pradesh between 1.5 and 3.1 km above mean sea level persists. • The Cyclonic Circulation over the Northwest Bay of Bengal & adjoining areas of north Odisha-West Bengal coasts between 3.1 and 4.5 km above mean sea level persists. • The Cyclonic Circulation over the South Andaman Sea & adjoining south Thailand now lies over the South Andaman Sea and extends up to 5.8 km above mean sea level. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the South Andaman Sea and adjoining the Southeast Bay of Bengal during the next 24 hours. It is likely to move west northwestwards and intensify into a Depression over the Southeast Bay of Bengal around 29 November 2023. • A fresh feeble Western Disturbance is likely to affect the Western Himalayan Region from 30 November 2023. All India weather forecast till 3 December 2023: Bay of Bengal to host third cyclone of the post-monsoon season, a rare cyclone run for the Indian Ocean this year, all the cyclonic storms produced in the bay remained categorically low intensity, also this is the factor that too many systems have induced with atmospheric energy distrusted amongst them equally rather than throwing in the single weather system. By 1 December cyclonic storm will form in the central Bay of Bengal, as the westerly trough is very active it will help keep the cyclone away from the shores of the country, as per the latest forecast track it is very likely that it will re-curve northeast towards Bangladesh or Myanmar, pretty similar to what last 2 systems followed. [caption id=“attachment_13438202” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Projected preliminary track of upcoming cyclone in the Bay of Bengal[/caption] As the cyclone forms up in the Bay of Bengal, north east monsoon to lose strength as easterlies weaken, in the upcoming week parts of Tamil Nadu, South Andhra Pradesh and Kerala to experience milder rains which will be of light to moderate intensity. WD led rains to subside, proper winters to knock on doors The current spell of rains and hailstorms from western disturbance has started subsiding from western India on Monday. Some parts of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, and Uttar Pradesh will experience light to moderate showers on 28 November and dry weather will resume across north, west and Central India from 29th November onwards. Since rains will fade away but the atmosphere will hold up some moisture content, conditions will become favourable for the formation of moderate to dense Fog in the late night and morning hours in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi NCR, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, through the spread of fog won’t be widespread and duration will not be long as it’s just the beginning of the season. Along with fog minimum temperatures will fall all of sudden due to commencing of northwest winds, forecasts suggest minimum temperature be recorded in the range of 5 to 8°c in Punjab, Haryana and northwest Rajasthan, in the range of 8 to 11°c in Delhi NCR, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh from 1 December onwards, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Odisha, Telangana, West Bengal and states in the northeast to record minimum temperatures in the range of 12 to 16°c in the interiors and around 18 to 20°c in cities close to sea coasts. The meteorological winters will officially start on a cold note. The writer, better known as the Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His impact-based forecasts @navdeepdahiya55 are very popular in north India. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. 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