Taiwan just inflicted a crushing ideological defeat on China; future of Xi Jinping’s ‘unification’ plan looks bleak

The recently held presidential elections in Taiwan were many things to many people. For the United States, a victory for the current vice president Lai Ching-te, or William Lai, of the pro-Independence Democratic Progressive Party is a win for the right man and a defiant rebuke to Beijing. To the Chinese Communist Party, it is the coming to power of a “dangerous separatist”. To one section of voters in Taiwan, it a mandate to continue with the policies mainstreamed by outgoing president Tsai Ing-wen, while for another section it is an expression of dissatisfaction with the current order of things. Before we analyse these cross narratives, it is worth taking a closer look at the results. The DPP, which rejects China’s territorial claims, resists unification and promotes a Taiwanese national identity, received the mandate for an unprecedented third successive presidential term. However, president-elect Lai could only get 40 per cent of the polled vote, down from 50 per cent that Tsai had secured in 2020 in a landslide when she received the backing of eight million voters. Hou Yu-ih of Kuomintang, the Beijing-friendly main Opposition, secured 33.5 per cent and Ko Wen-je of the upstart Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) won 26.5 per cent votes. Interesting to note, however, that for the first time since 2004, none of the parties won a majority in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan. The loss here is stark for the DPP that came down from 62 to 51 legislative seats in the 113-seat Yuan, suffering a net loss of 11 seats. The KMT got 52 and the TPP, eight. With DPP losing majority in the Parliament, Lai may find it difficult to push legislation through. The KMT and TPP, whose pre-poll alliance efforts fell through, may join hands to cross the magic figure of 57 and call the shots, and they may start by preventing the DPP from retaining the speakership. Now, regardless of the possibilities that this result throws up, the act of holding the elections itself is pregnant with symbolism. Starting from 1996 when the first direct presidential polls took place, people of Taiwan have consistently been taking part in large numbers in all electoral exercises. The turnout touched 71 per cent this time with 14 million voters casting their ballot, staring down bullying, coercion, disinformation campaigns, cyber and psychological warfare from the Chinese Communist Party that interprets elections as a mutinous act of insubordination and leaves no stone unturned to leave Taiwan diplomatically isolated. In some ways, therefore, the simple act of voting in Taiwan, held at the barrel of the CCP’s gun, is much more than an electoral exercise. It is both an act of affirmation and negation. It is an affirmation of democracy and a negation of China’s main ideological plank. Voters in Taiwan sent two core messages by taking part in the celebration of democracy and choosing their leaders through free and fair elections. One, they haven’t bowed down to China’s threats of reunification as an inevitability, and while not seeking to be confrontational, have chosen to invest in their future. This demonstrates the audacity of hope. Two, the Taiwanese people have struck at the very root of Communist China’s propaganda that Chinese people do not yearn for political freedom and are ready to exchange it for prosperity and stability. The people of Taiwan have smashed the Chinese Communist Party’s ideological plank that democracies are chaotic, corrupt and inefficient, and authoritarian party-state is the only system that may provide effective governance to the people by way of ensuring a political and economic model that works. Just by its act of existing as a throbbing, thriving democracy that ensures freedom, well-being and growth to its people, therefore, Taiwan poses an existential challenge to the Chinese Communist Party’s formidable propaganda machine. Considered one of the “most free” democracies in the world, Taiwan is one of the wealthiest countries in Asia with per capita GDP of $32,679 in 2022 compared to China’s $12,734. Taiwan’s Gini Index labour coefficient, according to Commonwealth Magazine, stands at 0.40, “which indicates that income or wealth is distributed quite equally, even better than many European countries such as Norway or France. With many of its citizens from very different sectors and strata earning similar wages, Taiwan is considered by many to be a model of egalitarian capitalism.” In terms of democratic values and economic freedom, Taiwan ranked sixth among 184 countries in The Heritage Foundation’s 2022 Index of Economic Freedom where the metrics range from rule of law, limited government, regulatory efficiency, and market openness. Taiwan also ranks as the eighth most vibrant democracy in the world, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index, and as Anthony B Kim writes in a Heritage Foundation report, “Taiwan has demonstrated to the world that freedom is a stabilizing force, that free enterprise, free association, and free speech lead to entrepreneurship, prosperity, and security.” When we consider the fact that the self-ruled island of 23 million people had to withstand relentless threat, intimidation, military, diplomatic and economic coercion, that the US had termed ‘gangster tactics’ from its much larger and the world’s second-most powerful economic and military power, the achievement seems all the more incredible! For instance, as Time points out, in 2023 alone, “China sent 1,709 warplanes through Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, on top of waging trade embargos, disinformation campaigns, and other coercive measures.” In fact, just a day ahead of the polls on Saturday (January 13), the Chinese military vowed to “smash” all “Taiwan independence plots”, a threat the PLA keeps on repeating. The PLA issued the same threat in February last year and then again in May when it called US move to provide military assistance to Taiwan an “extremely wrong and dangerous move.” When election results didn’t go the way China was hoping for, CCP censors clamped down on discussions related to Taiwan elections on Chinese social media platforms, scrubbed the mention of Taiwan from Chinese state media outlets and sent 18 fighter jets and some warships to operate around Taiwan and cross the median line of Taiwan Strait. China had also warned voters in Taiwan in the run up to the elections to make the “right choice” since Lai will bring “Taiwan closer and closer to war and recession” and left no doubt that it wanted the KMT, which supports unification with China at some stage, to win. When voters responded by electing the DPP leader, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said, “the DPP authorities in Taiwan disregard the prevailing trend of history, refuse the one-China principle, make every effort to expand the so-called ‘international space’, and conduct separatist activities seeking ‘Taiwan independence’. This is doomed to failure and will lead nowhere.” Faced with such belligerence, it has been interesting to watch Lai’s response. Calling the elections a “victory for the community of democracies,” Taiwan’s president-elect said, “I will act in accordance with our democratic and free constitutional order in a manner that is balanced and maintains the cross-strait status quo… At the same time, we are also determined to safeguard Taiwan from continuing threats and intimidation from China”. Lai’s confidence stems from the fact that Taiwanese have shown themselves to be immune and indifferent to Chinese threats. There’s a deeper and complex reason at play that might scuttle the long-held goal of CCP chairman Xi Jinping who wants to force a unification and lay down his legacy. Over the course of decades, the nature of Taiwanese identity has slowly shifted towards a greater national identity. Part of it is due to the churn of history, and part of it is politics. Credit must go to outgoing president Tsai, who, as ORF America’s Dhruva Jaishankar writes in Hindustan Times, who has “worked assiduously over her two terms to shift Taiwanese public thinking about the prospects of unification with China. She avoided loose talk about independence but worked to make Taiwan’s politics more resilient and improve its military preparedness.” This led to forging of a hybrid Taiwanese identity through a greater assimilation of disparaging identities — the 1949 immigrants of Chiang Kai-shek’s Chinese nationalist regime, immigrants whose ancestors arrived from China centuries ago, and the indigenous Austronesian peoples who were Taiwan’s only inhabitants for centuries. Financial Times in an article on this assimilation observes that “Tsai Ing-wen, the incumbent president, has tried to keep the balance by rallying the nation behind a hybrid identity, praising the ROC’s (Republic Of China) history in Taiwan — its economic miracle, democratisation and tolerant political and social culture — as a common achievement, and frequently calling the country ‘Republic of China Taiwan’.” This slow forging of Taiwanese identity is proving to be resilient and resistant to Chinese bullying. In fact, the new generation of Taiwanese people, its youth, no longer see themselves as Chinese. A recent survey by the Pew Research Center, conducted between 2 June to 17 September, 2023, finds that while the Chinese Communist Party considers Taiwan as a breakaway province, “only 3% of people in Taiwan think of themselves as primarily Chinese. Nearly 3-in-10 (28%) think of themselves as both Taiwanese and Chinese, but the largest share by far (67%) see themselves as primarily Taiwanese.” While some older adults may still harbour some emotional attachment to the Chinese mainland, the survey found that adult youths under the age of 35 are especially likely to identify as solely Taiwanese (83 per cent). And women are more likely than men to do so (72 per cent vs. 63 per cent). In light of KMT and TPP’s good performance in polls — a combined 60 per cent voters have cast their ballots against the DPP which takes a more openly confrontationist posture against China — some analysts feel that it may provide China with an opening in the future when the ‘pro-China’ camp comes to power. The KMT, for instance, openly supports unification, and Ko Wen-je of TPP is less of an ideologue and more of an opportunistic figure — a bit like India’s Arvind Kejriwal — whose stance on China is hard to nail down given his flip-flops and frequent shifting of positions. Ko’s support base is primarily the youth and the first-time voters, so it may be argued that if China adopts a less confrontational, more generous, less bruising, and nuanced strategy then it might be able to curry favour with the new generation. This assumption breaks down on the altar of two realities. One, China has proved to be incapable of adopting anything other than a bellicose stance on Taiwan and it has made a habit of frequent strong-arm tactics that may end up triggering internal cohesion and greater prominence of Taiwanese identity. The Pew survey proves that such an eventuality is already taking shape. Two, given that China sees its relationship with Taiwan through the prism of US-China relationship, the approaching US presidential polls may end up triggering more incendiary rhetoric from China on Taiwan. It seems unlikely, therefore, that Xi will be able to achieve his objective of “peaceful reunification”, and any use of force is likely to be counterproductive, when it comes to winning “hearts and minds of the Taiwanese people.” It won’t be easy for Xi to lay down his legacy. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the Latest News, Trending News, Cricket News, Bollywood News, India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.