Stuck in conflict: Pathways to end Gaza war and ensure sustainable peace

It has been four months of war in Gaza, which was triggered by a terror attack by Hamas on Israel on 7 October 2023, but it shows no signs of slowing down or ending. Gaza has been punished and pulverized with non-stop bombardment, aerial strikes and massive ground offensive by Israel, which has led to an unprecedented humanitarian crisis. Over 28,000 people have already been killed and over 67,000 severely injured. Almost the entire population of around 2.3 million in Gaza has been displaced and the 41-kilometre-long Gaza strip has been reduced to rubble, making it virtually un-inhabitable, perhaps for a long time. The international aid agencies and the UN have repeatedly called for ceasefire and permission to move in food and critical medical aid but Israel has been unrelenting in its pledge to flatten Gaza and eliminate Hamas from the face of the Earth. Ceasefire proposal In midst of the raging war, a number of attempts have been made for a ceasefire or a humanitarian pause, through the UN General Assembly, UN Security Council and regional countries. The latest attempt was a negotiated ceasefire deal which was drafted between officials from the US (through Director CIA), Egypt, Qatar, and Israel in Paris on 28 January. The deal proposed a call for a ceasefire of six weeks coupled with the first phase of civilian hostage releases with three Palestinian prisoners held by Israel released for each civilian hostage returned from Gaza. That ratio could go up for the exchange of Israel Defence Forces soldiers and a longer pause beyond the six weeks for the later phases could be negotiated later. Israel however, immediately voiced concerns over ‘some conditions that were not acceptable’. The proposal was then presented to Hamas which in turn came up with an even more expanded ceasefire proposal on 7 February entailing a ceasefire of 135 days during which all hostages would go free, Israel would withdraw all its troops from Gaza and an agreement would eventually be reached on an end to the war. Israel was quick to dismiss the offer with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu calling it ‘delusional’. The rejection of this proposal puts an end to any early hopes of early ceasefire although US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, after his tour to the region last week where he engaged with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) in Riyadh as well as Prime Minister Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, was hopeful when he said that although, “there are some clear non-starters in Hamas’s response, we do think it creates space for agreement to be reached”. Israel continues to flatten Gaza As regional countries especially Egypt and Qatar get down to explore more options to end this war, Israel has upped the ante in its offensive. In the latest inputs coming from the war zone, the Israeli military is flattening all buildings and construction along the border of Israel and Gaza, to create a clear and well-defined ‘buffer zone’ in the future. There are reports of intensification of operations in Khan Younis city in Southern Gaza where even refugee camps and hospitals are not being spared. Rafah crossing near the Egypt border which has come under immense pressure due to the influx of Palestinian refugees from Northern Gaza, too is being struck by Israel. Despite warnings by Egypt that Rafah is a ‘red line’ and should not be violated by Israel, the attacks from Israel are unrelenting in their timing and scope. On 9 February, Prime Minister Netanyahu issued a directive to his military to prepare a plan to evacuate civilians from Rafah ahead of an expected invasion in Rafah, bordering Egypt. It may be recalled that Israel had forcefully got Northern Gaza evacuated overnight in November last year, displacing over a million people when it launched a large-scale ground offensive, cutting off Northern Gaza completely. As a result, almost the entire surviving population of Gaza is cramped up in areas surrounding Rafah. Is Saudi Arabia having a rethought? While Egypt has been the traditional peace broker between Israel and Palestine, it is Saudi Arabia which carries more weight in the region and has traditionally been the flag bearer of Palestine cause in the past. However, in the past few years, there has been noticeable disenchantment from these core issues as Saudi Arabia sensed a sense of fatigue and inevitability in the cause.  Right from the start of war, it has maintained a surprisingly ambivalent position. Before the war started, Saudi Arabia was well on course towards reconciliation with Israel and therefore it was, in a way, caught off guard by the developments. Immediately after the 7 October attack, Saudi Arabia initially condemned the Hamas terror strike, but later on 12 October, Crown Prince MbS assured Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas that Saudi Arabia continues “to stand by the Palestinian people to achieve their legitimate rights”.  However, Saudi Arabia has stayed on the sidelines as the conflict escalated and casualties mounted, letting Qatar and Egypt take the lead. There were even reports that Saudi Arabia and possibly UAE were permitting Israeli cargo to take land route across the desert to avoid Houthis which were targeting their ships in the Red Sea. More recently, however, there seems to be a shift in Saudi position, perhaps due to pressure for a ceasefire and out of anguish with the uncontrolled destruction being caused by Israeli strikes. In a statement on 7 February, the Saudi Foreign Ministry stated that it has communicated its firm position to the US administration that there will be no diplomatic relations with Israel unless an independent Palestinian state is recognised on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital and that the Israeli aggression on Gaza Strip stops and all Israeli occupation forces withdraw from Gaza Strip. It was soon followed by reports of a consultative ministerial meeting on the Gaza war hosted by Saudi Arabia on 8 February which included UAE, Egypt, Jordan and Palestine where they reaffirmed their support for Palestine. Soon thereafter, reacting to Israel’s plans to launch massive operations in Rafah, Saudi Foreign Ministry stated 10 February warning of very serious repercussions of storming Rafah. These bold announcements are a definite sign of Saudi’s changing positions. Although it may be too soon to say Saudi Arabia may finally be ready to take the lead to end this war. Pressure on the US to pull the plug On the US side, its confused and muddled strategy of engagement continues. On one side it has continuously been propagating the end of conflict but has been reluctant to end financial and military support to Israel. With domestic support weaning and presidential elections nearing, it may have to make hard decisions soon. On 6 February, the US House, by a vote of 250 to 180, voted against the legislation that would send $17.6 billion in aid to Israel. Several US Senate leaders, especially Bernie Sanders, have openly voiced their concerns about the US supporting Israeli military actions. The case filed by South Africa against Israel in the International Court of Justice last month too has had an effect. Secretary Blinken, despite his tour to the recent region on 6-7 February failed to get the ceasefire deal through. On 08 February, it became more evident that US may no longer be able to blindly support Israel against massive domestic and global opposition when President Biden was reported stating that Israeli response in Gaza was ‘over the top’. US has also given Israel 45 days to report on allegations of violation of international law by its forces, else it could lose US aid. Continued attacks on US troops in Syria and Iraq and its fledgling naval campaign against Houthis from Yemen in the Red Sea could be major contributing factors too. As per inputs, US is also planning to withdraw all its troops from Syria and Iraq in the next three months. It will therefore be interesting to see if and for how long can the Biden administration continue supporting Israel’s uncontrolled war in Gaza. Israel is feeling the heat Israel, or Prime Minister Netanyahu specifically, is however determined to push for absolute victory in Gaza. Netanyahu earlier had confirmed fears that many had over the years when he said that he had no intention of working towards a two-state solution. However, with the war prolonging and casualties rising there is growing opposition back home against Netanyahu. On one such occasion, relatives of hostages burst into an Israeli parliamentary meeting on 22 January demanding immediate hostage exchange. Members of his war cabinet have openly come out in dissent too. Minister Gadi Eisenkot, who is a former IDF Chief of Staff as well as Benny Gantz, leader of the National Unity Party who joined the war cabinet, have openly questioned Netanyahu’s insistence on continuing military operations rather than focusing on getting the hostages back. There are reports that of the 130 hostages estimated in Hamas custody, 32 have been already killed in crossfire in Gaza and therefore demands for early ceasefire and hostage exchange are growing by the day.  Iran-supported proxies are intensifying their operations, especially in the North through Hezbollah and Houthis are inflicting huge economic costs by not permitting Israeli-flagged ships to transit the Red Sea. Russia has come out in open support of the Palestinian cause and its Air Force has reportedly joined air patrols in the so-called Bravo Line that divides the Golan Heights between Syria and Israel, to prevent Israeli air strikes into Syria. With the US now demanding answers, Egypt lining up troops and tanks at the Rafah border and Saudi Arabia taking a proactive stand, Israel is feeling the heat. Options to end war in Gaza The continuing humanitarian catastrophe and the growing opposition against Israeli actions is building pressure on the global community to find ways to end the war. Despite Netanyahu’s insistence on complete victory, it is well understood that this war is an ‘unwinnable war’. The sooner the Israeli government and more importantly its citizens realise it, the better it will be and may save thousands of lives which are precariously placed in danger, in tented camps in Rafah. Some of the ways this war could end may include: Netanyahu out Netanyahu is the most crucial piece of the puzzle. Either he is brought around to realistically review the desired end state in the war or domestic pressure could force his ouster, leading to a more pragmatic leader taking charge to end the war and get the remaining hostages back. US must rethink US is the second most important player in the game. There are signs of fatigue, disappointment and domestic pressure on continuing to blindly support Israel. It has already warned Israel against any rash military action against refugees in Rafah. If Netanyahu goes ahead with it, it may be the perfect excuse for US to pull the plug. Regional actors unite Till now it is mainly Qatar and Egypt which have pursued peace options while Iran has exercised its military power through its proxies. Turkey has been mobilizing the political discourse against Israel while Saudi Arabia and UAE have watched silently from the sidelines. Neither Arab League nor GCC have been able to come up with any firm, bold and unified stand on the war. For any possible end to the war, Saudi Arabia and Egypt hold the key in the region. Egypt has already moved troops and tanks to Rafah and has declared that any operations in Rafah are a red line. Saudi Arabia too is now taking a more proactive stand. If Egypt and Saudi Arabia, along with others like Qatar and Turkey issue unambiguous warnings to Israel, it may have a very strong deterrent effect. India as a wildcard India has a unique position in this war. It enjoys close ties with Israel and both countries have close cooperation and understanding on terror. India also has maintained its traditional stand on support for Palestine and the ‘two-State solution’. It is well known that Netanyahu and Modi have a close personal rapport and understand each other well too. India’s successful G20 presidency in 2023 has increased its weight as a ‘global leader’ too. A quiet word from Modi, explaining the realities and course of action possible, could well do the trick too. Conclusion The Gaza war is at a very dangerous phase. Any possible action by Israel in Rafah could draw in many more players into the conflict and unleash a war which will then be very difficult to contain or end. The current situation gives options to end the war and save precious lives. Hopefully, better sense will prevail. The author is Assistant Director, MP-IDSA. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views._ Read all the  Latest News,  Trending News,  Cricket News,  Bollywood News, India News and  Entertainment News here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.