Strategising India’s Red Sea maritime diplomacy

After the onset of the Israel-Hamas War, one issue that is gaining much attention is the growing security concerns in and around the Red Sea region. Security concerns are growing largely because of attacks on ships passing through this geo-strategic corridor of the Red Sea. As reports suggest, the attacks are being carried out by Houthi rebels from Yemen. The strategic development is also causing much concern for India. It is a known fact that the Houthi terrorists hijacked an India-bound ship, and unknown missiles hit another ship carrying oil to India. While the initial probe suggests, it is a handiwork of the same Houthi rebels who are up in arms in the aftermath of the Israel and Hamas War. The constant attack on ships in the Red Sea chokepoint also raises security concerns for global maritime trade, as the bulk of trade goes through the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb strait. The importance of the Red Sea in the international energy market can be understood because, over the years, it has played a key role as a trading gateway and “merchant gateway” to the international market. In this regard, various reports suggest that India is one of the major energy importers through the Red Sea. In this background, one has to locate the geopolitical development in this part of the world and its implications for India’s maritime security. Because of its strategic location, over the years, the Red Sea region has been one of the most conflicting and contentious. In this regard, one may recall here the famous Suez Crisis of 1956, as the West European countries suffered immensely due to the nationalisation of the Suez Canal. This crisis has also impacted West Asian geopolitics and paved the way for the accentuation of the Cold War rivalry. At the same time, West Asian geopolitics also got murkier following the Israel-Egypt war. Over the years, both during the Cold War and post-Cold War periods, this sea remained a geopolitical hotspot. It has also been observed that the ouster of Yemeni strongman President Abdullah Saleh from power in 2012 and the civil war in Yemen have further complicated the security situation in and around the Red Sea region. As various scholarly studies suggest, the growing rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia, along with the strong backing given to these Houthi rebels in Yemen by Iran to settle its geopolitical score with Saudi Arabia, has further complicated the strategic situation in and around the Red Sea. Looking at the present geopolitical limbo in and around the Red Sea, the security situation might be further complicated in this part of the world. This, in turn, will add volatility to the global energy market and may further the global economic recession. A recent World Bank report predicting slow global economic growth in 2024 highlights, “The recent conflict in the Middle East, coming on top of the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine, has heightened geopolitical risks. Conflict escalation could lead to surging energy prices, with broader implications for global activity and inflation." All these developments in and around the Red Sea will have a teetering impact on global trade, as around “12 to 15 per cent of global trade” is passing, as various reports suggest. One immediate consequence of the present crisis in the Red Sea is that most of the ships are bypassing the Red Sea. This is putting an additional burden on these ships, as they have to travel long distances through Africa to bypass the Red Sea. This increases both cost and time. It is in this context that one has to locate the consequences of the Red Sea on global geopolitics. As various statistical data published by numerous energy consultancy firms suggest, because of the Red Sea crisis, the price per barrel of oil reached around 80 billion US dollars. It has even been reported by Reuters that even a Russian oil tanker was likely hit by the Houthi attack, as reported by the Russian news agency ItarTass. The disruption of oil supplies, as well as the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, is going to have a deeper impact on the geopolitics of this region. What one witnesses is that the Western countries, particularly the United States and Great Britain, are deploying their war vassals and carrying out regular attacks on the Houthi rebels. The situation in the future will fully galvanise into a full-scale war as Iran backs the Houthi rebels. At the same time, the present crisis in the Red Sea region has also provided Russia with an opportunity to enter the fray where, most likely, the crisis will escalate further. Iran and Russia are also taking a more supportive position towards Houthi rebels, as reports suggest. Though the United Nations took measures to begin negotiations between the Houthis and Yemeni government, the moot question is whether it will mark the end of the war. Looking at the present course of conflict in this Red Sea region, one cannot rule out that the conflict may prolong further. This, in turn, will have a detrimental impact on the security situation in the adjoining regions. It is in this context that there is a need to analyse the impact of the Red Sea crisis on India’s maritime security. One of the biggest concerns for India as far as the evolving Red Sea crisis is securing energy through this strategic corridor. It is a fact that India is one of the largest importers of energy, and the Red Sea provides a corridor through which India imports the bulk of energy from the international market. For instance, India imports a major chunk of oil from Russia and Nigeria through the Red Sea. Though Russian ships are not facing much trouble at present, the escalation of conflict might impact India’s oil trading with Russia. Thus, the present strategic limbo in and around the Red Sea will affect India’s access to energy. Though the Red Sea route can be avoided by taking the Cape of Good Hope, however, the cost will be much higher. This will also have an adversarial impact on energy pricing. Reports suggest India is mulling buying more energy from Iraq to avert the Red Sea crisis. Similarly, as reports suggest, the bulk of India’s exports to the international market, especially to the US, European, West Asian, and African markets, go through the Red Sea corridor. Thus, India will face dual challenges both from the export and import fronts in this regard, thus creating a crisis in terms of supply securitisation. Estimates from various quarters suggest that the Red Sea crisis may impact India’s foreign trade. Along with the geoeconomic vulnerability, the prolonging of the Red Sea crisis might escalate into a major war as both Washington and Tehran flex their muscles for geopolitical manoeuvring. This will affect the security of the Indian Ocean region, thus adversely affecting India’s maritime security. The same can be evident from the fact that India-bound ships are also affected by the Houthi crisis in the Red Sea region. In this context, there is a need to beef up India’s naval presence in the Indian Ocean region. Since the onset of the war, India has deployed warships in the Arabian Sea to face any crisis. At the same time, India is not part of the international coalition of 11 countries led by the US against the Houthi. This propels India to underline its neutral position in the Red Sea. One of India’s consistent positions in the Red Sea crisis is “freedom of navigation,” based on the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. India’s position on the Houthi crisis was explicitly outlined by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar during his visit to Iran. In Iran, during his interaction with the media on January 15, 2024, Jaishankar made it explicitly clear, saying, “We have even seen some attacks in the vicinity of India. This is a matter of great concern to the international community. It also has a direct bearing on India’s energy and economic interests. This fraught situation is not to the benefit of any party, and this must be clearly recognised.” This statement by Jaishankar, in the presence of the Iranian Minister of External Affairs, Amir-Abdollahian, clearly indicates that India wants strong measures against Houthi rebels. There are three prolonged strategies India can adopt to checkmate the fissures arising out of the rebel Houthis’ attack on the Red Sea region. These are:

• Augmenting India’s naval capability in the Indian Ocean region to prevent the spillover impact of the Red Sea crisis, thus protecting the Exclusive Economic Zone.
• Need to develop alternative routes to secure energy from Russia. In this regard, the Indo-Pacific energy corridor can be important in shipping energy to India from Russia. Similarly, the Chennai-Vladivostok Corridor can also play an important role, along with the International North-South Transport Corridor, in securing energy from Russia to India.
• India can also strengthen its relationship with the Red Sea littoral countries to have a greater influence on the geopolitical development of this region.

It is a fact that, because of its strategic location, the Red Sea is going to play an important role in shaping the strategic narratives of West Asian geopolitics. It is in this context that there is a need for India to play a proactive role in the Red Sea to protect both its geo-economic and geo-strategic interests. The author teaches at the School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views._ Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook ,  Twitter  and  Instagram .