Second Russia-Africa summit: Moscow has an opportunity as the battle for Global South heats up

The second Russia Africa summit took place on 27-28 July in St. Petersburg. It was called the Russia Africa Economic and Humanitarian Forum. For Russia, it was a courageous act to try and pull off a continental summit in the midst of its ongoing Ukraine crisis, which has destabilised the international order. African countries as part of the Global South, are deeply impacted by this. The prices of food, fuel and fertilizer and the disruption of their supply chains are of deep concern to African countries. A few days before the summit, Russia ended the grain deal with Ukraine which threatened the relief from food insecurity in Africa and became the focal point of the Summit. Kenya and Egypt were among those who criticised the Russian decision and it was up to Russia to announce the need to provide energy and foodgrain to Africa through reliable supply chains and controlled prices. Putin criticised the ‘grain deal’, which was ‘shamelessly used exclusively to enrich large American and European businesses that exported and resold grain from Ukraine’. The major thing that Africa sought was consistent foodgrain supplies. This is not an economic opportunity but crisis management - the crisis created by the Russia-Ukraine war. There is discomfiture in Africa that they have to now take sides between the big powers again. The tectonic strategic shift in the world requires deft diplomacy. Post-pandemic Africa finds it an unnecessary distraction. Instead of trade, investment and assistance from all, it is now forced to choose sides depending on which may obtain the required economic support. The presence of the Wagner group in several African countries is an issue. Undoubtedly, Wagner is present with the concurrence of the hosts. However, countries like Ghana see Wagner as a threat. There is no unanimity around Wagner in Africa; what Africa expected to hear from Putin also is unclear. Prigozhin, the ‘exiled’ Wagner head, was there at the Summit with his friends from the Central African Republic where Wagner is deployed. In the 2019 Summit, 92 agreements were signed for about $11 billion. A few countries like Nigeria obtained benefits in energy and education. Most agreements remain unfulfilled. Given the current economic state of Russia any substantial growth in Russia-Africa economic relations is unlikely. Russia’s economic progress is now seen as diminished by Africa. Trade between them in 2022 was $18 billion. 35000 African students are in Russia, 6000 on scholarship. The Ukraine crisis divided Africa between 28 supporting the West, 17 who abstained and 8 who were absent in the vote in March 2022.How they deal with Russia in a common manner is a challenge. The fragmented approach that African countries have in summit negotiations often shows that individual interests of countries dominate Africa’s collective interests, which reduces their ability to negotiate. Africa needs to unify for specific common demands which Russia could realistically provide. In exchange Africa may suggest their neutrality. A redefined Africa- Russia relationship is important for both but also, for the emerging global order. The South Africa led African peace initiative which visited Moscow and Kyiv in June needs a follow up. It was courageous enough and the Russia Africa summit was the right place for African leaders to nudge Russia to provide avenues for a ceasefire and return to negotiations without which the destabilisation that has occurred due to the Ukraine crisis will not stop challenging Africa. Four conclusions of this event are evident. First, Russia has disrupted Ukrainian grain supplies and wants to fill that breach but is doing little which is not commercially feasible. It has announced up to 50000 MT grain donations to six counties Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, Eritrea and Central African Republic soon. Eritrea and Mali voted with Russia in the UN, Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, CAR abstained or were absent while Somalia was the only one among these who voted against Russia. Secondly, Russian producers of mineral fertilizers are prepared to double their exports to Africa by 2029. Here, Russia has 10 per cent of the African market. Since 2018, Russia has already doubled its fertilizers exports to Africa to 1.6 MT. Russian fertilizers are used in 25 African countries mainly South Africa, Morocco, Senegal, Tanzania, and Côte d’Ivoire. Most of these were represented by Presidents or PMs at the Summit. Thirdly, the summit, enmeshed in Big Power rivalry, was a truncated one, compared to the first edition in 2019. Instead of four days, it was held over two days. Of the expected 40 countries, 17 turned up at a head of state level. Yet this was the largest group of Heads of State to visit Russia after the start of the Ukraine crisis so the impact of that is not lost as Russia seeks ‘the formation of a fair and democratic multipolar world order’. The African Union held the Summit as a full partner with Comoros co-chairing and the AUC Chairman Faki Mohammed present. The co-chair from 2019, President Sisi of Egypt, President of Senegal Macky Sall and last AU chair and South African president Ramaphosa who led an African peace initiative in June were all present. Uganda, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Mali, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Libya, Algeria, Burundi, both Congo’s, CAR all came at high levels.The Nigerian Vice President, Tunisia’s, Seychelles’s, and Rwanda’s Foreign Ministers were there, but Kenya skipped it. Fourthly, Russia has an opportunity to be responsive to Africa as the battle for the Global South heats up. Putin said he expected the AU to be admitted to the G20 which India has initiated. His support is clear. However, in two decades of helming Russia, Putin has visited Africa only once. A possible participation in the BRICS Summit in South Africa in August is scuttled due to a notice by the ICC of which South Africa is a member. Russian ambivalence on UN and Security Council reform also keeps Africa out of global high tables. What can Russia do to engage Africa more effectively ahead? Russia provides arms to devil African counters and while it does not interfere in their value systems, it helps Wagner group to participate in local conflicts on request. Finally, the African Peace Initiative which visited Kiev and Moscow last month. Russia cannot agree with more than the good intentions of the initiative. African leaders pressed Russia collectively to relent and Putin was forced to make a special statement on this. Africa has nudged itself into being a voice for peace outside its own Continent. Through this summit Putin wanted to energise Russia-Africa partnership, and get its support against ‘US hegemony and Western neo-colonialism’. Several African leaders thanked Russia for its support in their liberation struggles, and the ‘Declaration’ promised Russia’s assistance to obtain compensation for colonialism. Beyond that it was a saving grace for Russia, some gains for Africa but no major breakthroughs were expected nor obtained. The writer is a former ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia ASEAN and the African Union. He tweets @AmbGurjitSingh. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. 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