Sangrur defeat has a message for AAP's Bhagwant Mann: Smell the coffee and come out of Delhi shadow

Just over a hundred days ago, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) formed the government in Punjab under Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann. It was a historic victory for the AAP. But the recent by-election result for the Sangrur Lok Sabha constituency went aga_inst the party. Punjab chief minister Bhagwant Mann was an MP from the Sangrur Lok Sabha constituency and won two consecutive times from here. He won this seat even under the Modi wave and when his party lost every Lok Sabha seat in Delhi and Punjab. Losing on the home turf of the newly elected chief minister within a hundred days of the formation of the government is not a good sign. Similarly, the return of Shiromani Akali Dal (Amritsar) chief Simranjit Singh Mann in this election is also significant for Punjab politics. This by-election outcome has a clear message for the AAP and Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann. The message is that it is time for the party to focus on the real agenda connected to the state of Punjab and come out of the shadow of the Delhi model of governance of AAP national convener Arvind Kejriwal. [caption id=“attachment_10591231” align=“alignnone” width=“640”]  Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal. ANI[/caption] In Sangrur, Simranjit Singh Mann defeated AAP’s Gurnail Singh by a margin of 5,822 votes. With this election, Simranjit Singh Mann will be returning to Parliament after nearly 18 years. He was an MP from the Sangrur Lok Sabha constituency between 1999 and 2004. Before discussing the reasons behind the AAP’s defeat, it is also important to look into the significance of the return of Simranjeet Singh Mann to Punjab politics. He is a pro-Khalistan figure as well as a radical. However, in the past, Mann has always maintained that he wants to achieve Khalistan through democratic, non-violent and electoral means. Similarly, his return indicates that the scope of Panthik politics is not over in Punjab, and this victory could mark a new beginning of Panthik politics. Both these issues are not good news for the AAP. First, the party has an incredibly vulnerable stand on religion. Second, since Bhagwant Mann came into power in Punjab, the state has already witnessed several separatist attacks. At such a time, people supporting Simranjit Singh Mann can again push the agenda of Khalistan from within. This is neither good news for Punjab, nor for the internal security of India. [caption id=“attachment_10844541” align=“alignnone” width=“640”]  Simranjit Singh Mann. ANI[/caption] AAP Punjab failed to show its ‘Independence’ The people of Punjab were fed up with these traditional political parties and wanted to see a real change. The expectation from the AAP was that it would come out of this complication and work independently. In today’s politics, the most crucial factor is messaging. Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal understands the act of political messaging quite well. However, in the case of Punjab, the party failed to give a substantial message in terms of autonomy to Punjab chief minister Bhagwant Mann. There is a growing belief in Punjab that the chief minister is following Kejriwal’s instructions. The first big story in the national media was a meeting between top officials such as the Punjab chief secretary and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal. Even the newspapers of the state highlighted this meeting. Similarly, for every decision taken by Bhagwant Mann, there is a follow-up comment or response or tweet from the Delhi chief Minister welcoming the step. Kejriwal repeatedly tweeted that he has talked to the Punjab Chief Minister about the security situation in the state, law and order and other issues. According to reports, even the Punjab chief minister visited the residence of Kejriwal to brief him about the law and order situation in the state. Such issues have raised significant doubt in the minds of people against the autonomy of the Punjab chief minister, and this discontent was clearly visible in the Sangrur outcome. Sidhu Moosewala’s murder and the issue of law and order According to political observers, anger over the murder of Punjabi singer Sidhu Moosewala also played against the AAP in this election. The singer was close to Simranjit Singh Mann and decided to extend support to him in this election. Moosewala used to call Mann “Bapu”. There is a growing belief among the followers of Sidhu Moosewala and also the people of Punjab that the murder happened due to the abrupt decision of the Bhagwant Mann government to withdraw his security cover. [caption id=“attachment_10809671” align=“alignnone” width=“640”]  File image of Sidhu Moose Wala. Instagram/sidhu_moosewala[/caption] Despite the AAP government’s repeated denials of the allegations of worsening law and order situation in Punjab, there is a significant amount of discontent among Punjab citizens regarding the issue. The Opposition parties successfully capitalised on issues like the murder of Moosewala, the RPG attack on the Punjab police intelligence office, and the gang wars and murders. Shift in Panthik vote bank In Punjab, politics has typically been seen as involving religion. Religious votes, known as Panthik votes, surround the politics of the Shiromani Akali Dal. As a result, the SAD fielded Kamaldeep Kaur, the sister of Khalistani terrorist Balwant Singh Rajoana, who was convicted of assassinating former chief minister Beant Singh and is currently serving a life sentence. Due to a number of factors, including the breakdown of the party organisation, accusations of endorsing dynasty politics, and a veering away from fundamental religious themes, the SAD was unable to maintain its Panthik vote share. This vote share went to Simranjit Singh Mann as a result of a significant change in this voting group.

***

Also Read **With a Khalistan supporter winning bypoll, is AAP’s Punjab headed towards vanishing point?** **Simranjit Singh Mann stokes row, dedicates Sangrur win to Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale: Know about pro-Khalistan leader** **Who is Gurpatwant Singh Pannu, the man who continues to stoke the issue of Khalistan in India?** **Why West is never tired of invoking democracy, but remains silent on rising anti-India forces on its soil**

***

The vote share of the Shiromani Akali Dal came down to 6 percent from 24 per cent, whereas the vote percentage of the AAP came down to 35 percent from 37 per cent. The loss of AAP’s vote share is negligible. This is because the AAP in Punjab generally does not get the support of the Panthik voters. The Aam Aadmi Party in Punjab also does not have a strong pro-Sikh religious stand despite having a Sikh chief minister. This shift in Panthik votes aided the SAD(A) but harmed the AAP. Shift in Muslim vote bank The Malerkotla Assembly segment comes under the Sangrur Lok Sabha seat. This is the only Muslim majority district in Punjab. The Muslim-dominated Malerkotla segment has always been a stronghold of the AAP. However, in this election, Simranjit Mann got over 30,503 votes, whereas AAP candidate Gurnail Singh got only 22,402 votes from this segment. According to political observers, Simranjit Mann supported the Muslims of this constituency during their 10 June protest against Bharatiya Janata Party functionaries who made derogatory remarks about Prophet Mohammed. Meanwhile, the AAP has always considered the Muslim vote as the default for them and maintained silence on issues regarding atrocities against Muslims. This was the first time Muslims voted against the AAP, and this became a key reason behind the party’s loss in the Sangrur Lok Sabha constituency. Delay in fulfilling election promises There is a growing sense among the voters of Punjab that the AAP is dragging its feet in fulfilling the election promises, such as free and uninterrupted electricity. There is also a growing discontent among the women voters because the Bhagwant Mann government has not yet kept the promise of providing a few thousand rupees per month to every adult woman. This was one of the key promises that helped the party win this election. Similarly, the people of Punjab are upset with the party over its choice of Rajya Sabha candidates. Meanwhile, a section of political analysts and people from Punjab believe that the unsolved sacrilege cases have also become one of the main reasons behind the disenchantment of the voters against the AAP. The author is an independent journalist and columnist. He is a former policy research fellow at the Delhi Assembly Research Center. He tweets as @sayantan_gh. Views expressed are entirely personal. Read all the Latest News , Trending News ,  Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram._