Right Word | Political lessons from 2022: Led by Modi, BJP far ahead with good mix of cultural nationalism, development

The year 2022 brought some significant lessons for the political parties and the leadership of these parties. The first and foremost lesson is that Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains the most popular leader of the country and led by him Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) continues to be  the most favoured party for the electorate. If the Opposition wants to challenge Modi in 2024 Lok Sabha polls, they need to challenge a formidable combination: A highly credible and assertive leader who leads from the front, a government that delivers on the ground, a political party and a government whose ideological moorings are crystal clear and an organisational structure whose core strength is a highly motivated cadre and a strong belief in its leadership.

Let us take a look at some of the key political developments which are an indicator towards the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and what lessons need to be learnt by political parties in India.

Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections

Elections were held for 403 seats in the Assembly of Uttar Pradesh in February-March 2024. BJP won handsomely by securing 255 seats while the closest opposition Samajwadi Party won 111 seats. Indian National Congress which is seen as the main opposition party by many in terms of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls could win only two seats. The lesson from this verdict is clear that out of 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state of Uttar Pradesh, BJP is likely to win a substantial number of seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls while Congress is nowhere in the race. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP won on its own 62 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh and along with its alliance, it won 71 seats. That formed a major chunk of the 303 seats won by the BJP in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. So, unless the opposition is able to make a dent in the state of Uttar Pradesh, it doesn’t stand a fair chance to challenge the BJP in the 2024 polls.

Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur

In all these three states which also went to Assembly polls in the year 2022, the BJP was able to comfortably form its government either alone or with their allies as the popular mandate was in their favour. The Opposition failed to make any dent there. In all these three states, as happened in the state of Uttar Pradesh, the BJP was able to repeat its government which is exceptional in all these three states which have a tradition of defeating the incumbent after every five years. The lesson to be drawn from these results is that unless the BJP governments administered good governance and the people posed faith in the future vision of the BJP as its governments were able to put that in action. The Opposition was not able to present a credible alternative and it relied on merely rhetorical criticism. Of course, the organisational efforts also created a huge difference as all these are small states and discontent or lack of coordination in even a few number of seats could change the scenario as happened in the state of Himachal Pradesh.

Punjab and Himachal Pradesh

In Punjab, the Aam Aadmi party stormed to power sweeping the state Assembly polls. The Congress lost another state and seems to be on the verge of marginalisation. Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) also received a huge setback. The BJP couldn’t expand its footprint in the state and continues to remain a minor player in state politics. In Punjab, however, the lesson lies in the post-poll scenario. The AAP government is floundering with severe deterioration in the law and order situation in the state. It also shows that the AAP’s model of governance is losing its sheen. This is going to have a significant impact on the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. In 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the Indian National Congress had won eight seats, SAD and the BJP won two seats each and AAP won one seat. The Congress is very unlikely to repeat its performance and there would be strong anti-incumbency sentiment against AAP. The benefits, thus, could be reaped by both the BJP and SAD. There is also a possibility that they might come together again as the SAD-BJP alliance has been able to do well electorally in the past.

In Himachal Pradesh, the Congress defeated the BJP in Assembly polls by a narrow margin of 0.9 per cent votes. This was despite the fact that the BJP was facing anti-incumbency sentiment as its government had not been able to match the expectation of the common people. The party was also suffering from bitter infighting and factionalism. A number of rebel candidates marred the prospects of the party candidates in many closely contested seats.

The lesson from Himachal Pradesh is very clear. It is the BJP which can defeat itself. Going ahead, in states like Karnataka, the party will have to improve its government’s performance while in states like Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, it would have to resolve the factionalism within the party. All these three states are going to polls in 2023 to elect the new state governments. The BJP is currently ruling in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh while it would be trying to replace the Congress government in Rajasthan. The Congress remains a bitterly divided house in Rajasthan. This also shows the failure of the Congress leadership to bring warring factions together.

In fact wherever Congress is still a potent force its prospects are marred by bitter infighting. In Himachal Pradesh, it is Pratibha Singh vs Chief Minister Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu, in Chhattisgarh, there is a tussle between TS Singh Deo and Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel, in Rajasthan it is Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot vs Sachin Pilot and in Karnataka, the factions led by DK Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah are at loggerheads. These factional fights also show that the Congress leadership has lost the grip over the party. The regional satraps don’t listen to the top leadership anymore. This indicate a further decay in the party structure which is already on the verge of collapse.

Gujarat polls

The biggest lesson in 2022 has come from the outcome of the Gujarat polls. Despite being in power for 27 years, the BJP not only make a comeback but decimated the Congress. AAP’s tall claims were also exposed. The massive victory in Gujarat polls is a clear indication that the BJP’s juggernaut for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls has started rolling and the Opposition stands on a weak wicket. The primary reason for BJP’s edge over the other parties remains to be Prime Minister Narendra Modi who is ably aided by a team of political leaders and cadres who work in a focused manner.

A potent mix of cultural nationalism, development and good governance with a specific focus on marginalised sections of society has created a strong and loyal base of voters for the BJP. Despite being in a comfortable position, the party continues to strive hard in every poll in a ‘do or die manner’ with Modi leading from the front. This work ethic is missing in the rest of the opposition. Unless they can work as hard as the BJP and the prime minister does and match Modi’s personal charisma and mass appeal, the Opposition doesn’t seem to have much chance. However, the BJP also needs to learn a lesson from its debacle in municipal polls in Delhi and the Assembly polls in Himachal Pradesh. It needs to set its house in order in some states and ensure that its governments in the states continue to match the expectations of the common people. Remember, Indian voters, don’t spare anyone who doesn’t deliver!

The writer, an author and columnist, has written several books. He tweets @ArunAnandLive. Views expressed are personal.

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