Red Sea chokepoints in peril: Houthi strikes raise stakes for global shipping

The Red Sea, with its strategic maritime routes, is an important artery for trade and sea borne traffic as well as for the choke points in the Bab-El Mandab which needs to be kept open. Of late several incidents of attacks on various ships by the Houthis have threatened the smooth and secured maritime passage. Houthis in Yemen have been at war with the Saudis since 2015 and have emerged as a force that has had the capacity to paralyse and hit oil production facilities and key infrastructure even bypassing the US patriot cover in the past which entailed a rethink among the Gulf countries with regard to even the US security umbrella. Iran plays a critical support role for the Houthis, Hamas and Hezbollah in the region. Hence, the rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran brokered by Beijing was supposed to minimise, if not end the hostilities by the Houthis. But then the Israel-Hamas war happened and Houthis, in full support of Hamas, began to target Israeli ships and their supporters like the US and other western countries. This has become more frequent and very likely could open yet another front for the Gaza war as the Houthis have threatened to target all foreign ships transiting through Bab-el-Mandeb and in the Red Sea bound for Israel, regardless of nationality, “if Gaza does not receive the food and medicines it needs”. International community’s concern is natural and hence one witnesses the growing presence of various naval assets in the Red Sea zone and the environs to ensure smooth passage led by the US. The US Defence Secretary, who was recently in Tel Aviv to extend military and moral support to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, announced a ten-nation maritime task force (Operation Prosperity Guardian) to prevent reckless Houthi attacks from Yemen which is threatening the free flow of commerce and violating international law in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. This initiative could possibly be within the ambit of 39 member Combined Maritime Force (CMF) with which India also has a formal association. He implored a collective action since it has become an international challenge. As if Houthis care two hoots for the international law. On the other hand, an embattled Netanyahu seems to drag the western backers pointing against Iran- whose support may be critical to Houthis but whose influence on them may be somewhat limited. It is a real threat but if handled poorly it might be the trigger for expanding the conflict from Gaza to beyond as the last UAE sponsored UNSC resolution to ensure pause or ceasefire in Gaza is still waiting for the US nod. Shipping lanes in and around the Red Sea and the Bab-el-Mandeb strait - the maritime chokepoint, carry nearly 10 per cent of the global sea-borne crude. And 40 per cent of Europe ‘s trade to Asia and Middle East is dependent on this maritime route. Pursuant to the capturing and attacks on Israeli and US vessels and increasing threats to others, energy and shipping companies like BP and Maersk are redirecting shipping away from the Red Sea. Insurance premium has gone up. Transportation costs and losses will see a rise of over 40 per cent as per some estimates. Oil prices are interlinked and will be affected by these aberrations and could impact the already fragile hydrocarbon dependent economies let alone disruption in other maritime trade and global supply chains. This is further compounded by the already existing, even if reduced maritime piracy. A crowded Red sea and Gulf of Aden theatre will also witness the geopolitical contestation between the super powers as US, Russia and China, India and Europe shift and reposition their naval assets overtly to protect their own maritime interests in the name of freedom of navigation. It is instructive that Houthis have made an exception for the Russian and Chinese ships in the Red sea while they have attacked at least ten ships from across nationalities, since 20 October that came into their lines of fire. In fact, since 9 November when they hijacked the Galaxy Leader –- an Israeli owned tanker, Houthi military spokesman Mohammed Abdul-Salam claimed “The detention of the Israeli ship is a practical step that proves the seriousness of the Yemeni armed forces in waging the sea battle, regardless of its costs. This is just the beginning.”  Hence the seriousness of these threats is real and needs to be dealt with through international cooperation as was done during the peak of the anti-piracy campaign. US attempts at creating some regional security architectures have been half-hearted as it got more invested in the Indo-pacific. Although it tried to induce and conduct Israel- GCC joint naval exercises in recent past, the Israel-Hamas war and exceptional Palestine casualties and the unconditional US support to them has stressed the expectations from it and put brakes on all such normalization and collaborative ventures at least in the near term as the Arab street and Iran remain hostile to them. New Delhi is equally concerned at the deteriorating situation and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has spoken with the Sultan of Oman and Prime Minister Netanyahu and others on the need to contain the deteriorating situation from Gaza to the Red Sea. Oman is perhaps the only country outside Iran which the Houthis trust and are willing to listen to. Since almost 20 per cent of India‘s trade ($200 billion) traverse through Red Sea to Mediterranean connecting via the Suez Canal, it has also deployed its naval ships to protect the freedom of navigation and maritime lanes and to escort the Indian commercial ships and mariners after certain incidents were reported. Indian Ministry of External Affairs spokesman Arindam Bagchi expressed his concerns stating that “India has always been supportive of the free movement of commercial shipping so that is something that we are interested in. We are, of course, monitoring the developments there. We’re also part of international efforts to ensure free shipping, whether it be piracy or otherwise, India has been involved in it. So, we will continue to monitor that…”. Hope is, that while efforts are being made to ensure freedom of navigation, the hotspots in the region, including in Gaza and Yemen and the civilian and humanitarian strife which can spiral out of control, need to be addressed on priority. The author is the former Indian Ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta and is currently a Distinguished Fellow with Vivekananda International Foundation. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook ,  Twitter  and  Instagram .