Prachanda's third term as Nepal PM: Why this time India should invest in him

Political stability has eluded Nepal with the return of Prachanda as Prime Minister for the third time. He is likely to make his state visit to India next month. The visit can cement bilateral relations. Further, a spell of continuity in the term of prime minister will usher in a spell of economic prosperity, the dream of ordinary Nepalese.   Corruption has enfeebled the country where nearly one-third of the population is working abroad. After the Loktantrik Andolan movement in 2006 following the decade-long civil war between Maoists and the state, monarchy was abolished on 28 May 2008 by the first Constituent Assembly. Between 2008 and 2023 there were 13 prime ministers to wit Prachanda (Maoist); Madhav Nepal and  Jhalanath Khanal (Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist)); Baburam Bhattarai (Maoist); Khilraj Regmi (caretaker Prime Minister); Sushil Koirala (Nepali Congress);Oli (CPN UML); Prachanda; Sher Bahadur Deuba (Nepali Congress); Oli; Deuba; and Prachanda. Prachanda notably has not completed one year in office in previous terms as in 2008, he was forced to resign for attempting to subvert state institution and rubbing India on wrong side. His other term was part of power sharing agreement with Deuba in 2016-17 and the third term began on 26 December 2022.   When Prachanda was forced to resign in 2008, it was at the behest of President Ram Baran Yadav (Nepali Congress) on India’s prodding for Prachanda unconstitutionally dismissing Army Chief Gen Rukmangad Katwal. Following his ouster, Indian Embassy in Kathmandu used to claim that it never let Prachanda become Prime Minister again, even when the Maoists and Left parties remained in government. In that period Prachanda learnt the ropes of realpolitik and bounced back but with Maoist split into three factions, and their parliamentary strength reduced to 53 seats, when once they exceeded NC and  UML combined  seat tally. But Prachanda remained the kingmaker as neither NC nor UML could form a government on its own. Prachanda reset his compass a decade into his political wilderness. At a meeting with me around 2012 he admitted that initially he believed China was required in Nepal to balance India though later he realised that India was a more important player than China. As the Prime Minister for the second time, he would say that Nepal can act as a bridge between two fastest growing economies, India and China. It was possible then to attempt ‘bridging’ even as China had become both an economic and political rival, competing for space in Nepal. With relations turned adversarial after the showdown in Ladakh, China is upset at the turn of events after the November 2022 elections. Despite numbers in Parliament dwindling to 32, Prachanda through grit, single mindedness of purpose and hard politics was able to become PM a third time. Although he joined the Deuba democratic alliance, he was quick to switch sides – a familiar trait – to join friend turned foe Oli when Deuba refused to make him prime minister. But the dalliance with Oli did not last as he rejoined Deuba with political alacrity when he was offered prime ministership.  It is believed – though nothing is official – that Prachanda,  Nepal and Deuba will share the five year term as the PM. This is not a tidy arrangement and will augur instability. It is possible that Prachanda may be allowed to complete the full term in office breaking the bogey of not completing one year in office. A word about Oli is essential to understand the China-India rivalry. He possesses a rare gift for survival combined with ruthlessness in eliminating opponents. UML is still the best organised party and his (Oli’s) popularity is exceptional. He exploited India’s fault lines brilliantly after India merely ‘noted’ the new constitution, asking Nepal to delay its promulgation after incorporating Indian caveats and the 53-day long and painful blockade. These events are etched in the minds of most Nepalese. His brand of nationalism egged on the anti-India sentiment as never before. It also enabled him to unilaterally incorporate disputed areas of Kalapani, Lipulekh and Limpiya Dhura in the new map of Nepal with an unprecedented 100 per cent sans one vote in Parliament. India consciously faltered in opening the dialogue on the border dispute. Adding fuel to fire Oli hurled insults at India and made light of Satyamev Jayate. He turned to China as no previous leader had and signed several agreements on trade and infrastructure including China Nepal Economic Corridor. It is another matter that most of the Chinese commitments have remained on paper. Taking Kathmandu by surprise just before Dussehra in 2017, a photograph appeared in mainline newspapers showing four communist leaders and former Prime Ministers – Oli, Khanal, Prachanda and Bhattarai – holding hands and heralding the formation of the Left alliance which was largely the handiwork of China’s then energetic ambassador, Hou Yanqi. This Left Alliance that ruled uncomfortably under Oli for three years was undone by Prachanda, Nepal and Election Commission of Nepal. It was momentarily and partially revived in December 2022 when Prachanda jumped ship to join Oli in order to become PM. This reunion was short lived as Prachanda returned to the democratic fold by rejecting Oli’s choice of President in elections held on 9 March which NC stalwart Ram Chandra Paudel won easily. To his credit Prachanda has won a vote of confidence twice in two months and is firmly in the saddle. Prachanda has revived the political fortunes of Nepali Congress, the single largest party which was marginalised from the political mainstream after Prachanda’s switch of alliance. Prachanda was expected to complete constituting his council of ministers by Monday, 26 March. He needs to fill up ministries vacated by UML and Rashtriya Prajatantra Party, the two  parties left in the opposition. A foreign minister is urgently required to address the issue of Agniveer relating to the 38 Gorkha battalions in the  Army. Nepal has to take a call on four years truncated recruitment which is not popular among Gorkha lads. Recruitment is politically very sensitive as communists have invariably opposed Nepalese joining foreign armies.   Indian policy makers have underestimated the strategic underpinning of Gorkha recruitment as an asset and enabler to a pro-India constituency in Nepal. New Delhi can win over hardliners in Nepal by simply exempting Nepal from Agniveer. Or else it could be the beginning of the end of the Gorkha Brigade – from which the Army draws its best frontline battalions. PM Modi told Nepalese parliament in 2014 : “ India has fought no war in which Nepali blood has not been shed” Prachanda was invited by Chinese Ambassador Chen Song to visit the BRI conference but he chose to come to India next month invited by Modi. Given that Prachanda is backed by Deuba’s Nepali Congress, traditionally supportive of India, New Delhi should invest in him for greater political and economic stability and  for more equal and mutually beneficial relations. The author is a veteran of Gorkha Regiment who has travelled in Nepal since 1959, understands it’s domestic politics and was involved in back channel with Maoists. Views are personal. Read all the  Latest News,  Trending News,  Cricket News,  Bollywood News, India News and  Entertainment News here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.