Poonch terror attack: Desperate Pakistan’s last throw of dice; India must go ahead with holding G20 meetings in Kashmir

The Poonch terror attack in which five Indian soldiers were killed and one critically injured was a calculated attempt to disrupt India’s plans of holding G20 events in Kashmir. This cynical plot is a challenge to the might of the Indian state and its efforts to normalise life in Kashmir. It cannot be allowed to succeed. It is now imperative, more than ever before, that New Delhi goes ahead with holding the G20 ‘Tourism Working Group’ meeting from 22-24 May as well as the ‘Y20 Consultation’ summit on 11 May in Srinagar. These are major international events to be attended by delegates from guest countries and several international organisations. The Srinagar leg of the schedule would have been prepared long back and invitations and attendance finalized by now. These programmes, therefore, must not be halted, postponed or the schedule tampered with in any manner or due to any excuse. India must also be on the highest alert for more such attacks closer to the crucial dates. Media reports say PAFF — a proxy of the Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Muhammad terror group that carried out the ambush on Indian soldiers carrying Iftar fruits for villagers in a hamlet nearby — are still to be hunted down. It has also been reported that five terrorists who waylaid the Army truck have decamped with the soldiers’ weapons. If true, this is a cause for worry. Intelligence reports had already indicated, as soon as New Delhi announced the holding of the events in Srinagar, that terror attacks might be staged to throw a spanner in New Delhi’s arrangements. The idea is to force India to cancel its plans and fortify the narrative that nothing is ‘normal’ in Kashmir. With Jaish operatives carrying out the terror attack in Poonch and running away brazenly with the weapons, the likelihood of more such attacks just went up. Worth noting that Pakistan had “condemned” India’s decision to hold G20 meetings in Kashmir and had expressed its “strong indignation.” To think that Islamabad would restrict itself to diplomatic expressions of outrage is to live in a fool’s paradise. Pakistan has institutionalized the concept of using terror as a foreign policy tool to achieve geopolitical objectives. The root lies in Pakistan military’s outsized role in its polity and its iron grip over key aspects of the state, including Pakistan’s defence, security, and foreign policy. While the military remains the most powerful institution in Pakistan and the most lucrative career path for the ambitious in a poverty-stricken nation, the rest of the institutions in the country have been allowed to lapse into a state of irreversible decay, including the political apparatus. The civil-military balance is heavily skewed in favour of the latter. The political tension that Pakistan has recently been witness to, has wholly emanated from the civilian government’s (led by ousted prime minister Imran Khan, ironically the army’s protégé) efforts to push back against this power structure and challenge the military’s primacy. Imran’s immense popularity made it difficult for the military to directly challenge him or simply make him ‘disappear’ as countless before him. Pakistan’s military sells the dream of snatching Kashmir away from India to the Pakistani qaum and presents itself as the last line of defence against aggression from Hindustan. The perpetuation of this narrative is crucial to the military’s well-being, the font of its supremacy and even its very existence. Quite naturally, the issue of Kashmir cannot be allowed to fade away. Even if it cannot be wrested away from India, and privately Pakistani generals admit the inevitable, the pretence must be kept up to ensure the military’s primacy in Pakistan’s polity. This is where terrorism fits in as a handy tool. It is a low-cost option to pursue against India, it gives Pakistan the fig leaf of plausible deniability and it keeps the ‘Kashmir issue’ alive, even though the longer-term effects of using terrorism as a state policy harm the country pursuing it the most. In keeping with this policy, Pakistan has long given terrorists a safe haven within its borders and in parts of Kashmir that it occupies. It has provided monetary, intelligence and even direct military support to anti-India terror outfits as part of its strategy of “bleeding India with a thousand cuts”. The chickens have finally come home to roost. Tension with Afghanistan, where Pakistan has long nurtured the Taliban to double cross the United States and gain ‘strategic depth’ against India, has been exacerbated. Imran has led a popular revolt against the army’s supremacy at home, and has so far proved a stubborn opponent. Pakistan’s salience to the West has diminished following US withdrawal from Kabul. It has found it harder and harder to blackmail the West. Its economy is in shambles, its reputation much lower still, and its influence in the region has diminished to the point of irrelevance even as India’s has steadily risen. As Pakistan has fallen deeper into a quagmire of its own making, its collapsing economy, balance-of-payments crisis, surging inflation, unrest in Baluchistan border, and an unstable political climate at home has made it difficult to pursue the regressive policies against India. In this context, India’s announcement of holding G20 meetings in Srinagar — where India has read down the temporary provisions of special status to Jammu and Kashmir and broken up the erstwhile state into two Union-controlled territories of Jammu and Kashmir to better integrate the region and facilitate its economic development and growth — has made Pakistan see red. However, Pakistan has very few tools at its disposal to deter India from going ahead except launching sporadic terror attacks. If India manages to showcase Kashmir as a popular tourist destination, which is New Delhi’s objective behind holding the events in this venue, Pakistan will find it increasingly difficult to sponsor terrorism in a region where economic opportunities abound. Therefore, these terror attacks are Pakistan’s last throw of the dice. These challenges must be met with resolve and steely determination. Read all the Latest News , Trending News , Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.