Politics turns populist, takes right turn as world goes for elections

It is an astonishing figure. About 4 billion people—roughly half the world’s population—are due to vote in 2024 across 60 countries, a historical first. It is an unusual record that may look like democracy in full flow. Sadly, that is not the case. Democratic institutions have eroded badly in established democracies. Some of these are vitally important for India. That includes the US elections and the just-completed elections in Taiwan. These and others have the potential to roil the international environment, including the ambitions of India to be a $4 trillion economy. The world is changing in response to malign events, and in such circumstances, it is every country for itself. The US changes gears downward Top of the draw in terms of global effects are elections in the United States, the preparations for which are already in full swing in what is probably the world’s most complicated exercise, with registration of candidates in spring 2023, followed by primaries and caucus debates, and the nomination conventions sometime in June, with all the pieces coming together in the final race at the end of the year. The US prides itself on having the oldest unbroken democracy in the world, with some 160 million voters. But democratic traditions have been eroding, and badly. The storming of the Capitol in January 2021 by Trump supporters left an indelible black mark on its history. Another bit of history was made when a Colorado court, whose justices were all appointed by Democratic governors, declared Trump ineligible under an US Constitution insurrection clause for the very first time ever. That will certainly be taken up in the Supreme Court. There’s trouble ahead, as Trump has maintained an impressive lead in national polls despite facing four separate indictments. Meanwhile, President Biden and his son are being investigated for the latter’s foreign financial deals, even though he refused to act on a subpoena and even walked out of a hearing. On top of all that are the allegations from Senator Robert F Kennedy and others that the Ukraine war was a money laundering scheme to enrich large weapons companies and multinationals. And to add to that are the increasingly massive protests against the bombing of Palestine, with Biden being called ‘Genocide Joe’. This level of protest is unheard of in US history. Democracy is corroding here, and if Trump returns, that process could worsen. For India, that would mean a clampdown on immigration, even as social media naively cheers for Indian American Vivek Ramaswamy. More protectionism and demands for market access will follow a clampdown on visas for those dreaming of making it big in America. Europe strikes a right-wing note Some fourteen countries go to the polls in Europe in either parliamentary or presidential elections. Among them is the UK, where a historic shift may be evident soon. The 14-year Conservative party rule is expected to end with Labour becoming increasingly popular. Labour has had a poor record with India, accused of being pro-Pakistan in its approach to Kashmir. Recently, party leader Keir Starmer demoted two Indian-origin ministers while promoting Pakistani-origin MP Shabana Mahmood as the new shadow justice secretary and Sri Lankan-origin Thangam Debbonaire as the new shadow culture secretary. Starmer promises a better deal on India, but that is yet to be seen on the ground. Here, too, immigration is a hot issue. The bizarre sight of the UK turning away immigrants and sending them to Rwanda is unprecedented, as is the tragedy of those perishing in ice-cold seas trying to cross the channel. Alongside, there are nine presidential or parliamentary elections upcoming in Europe, and the forecast is one of political fragmentation, with governments unable to command a majority. More worrying is that right-wing sentiments are growing as Europe sees a flood of refugees from its own military adventurism, including Ukraine and Afghanistan. In November, the Netherlands parliamentary elections saw the rise of the Party for Freedom, led by anti-Islam, Euroskeptic radical Geert Wilders, which won 37 seats in the 150-seat parliament. Germany’s economy shrank in 2023 amid high energy costs and low industrial demand. Thousands of farmers converged on Berlin with their tractors, protesting subsidy cuts and bringing life to a standstill. The right-wing is piggybacking on the issue. The European People’s Party (EPP), advocates a policy of keeping refugees or migrants out, praises a ‘Judeo Christian’ heritage, and warns of parallel societies and self-segregation due to the spread of ‘Islamism’. Yet its leaders are at the forefront of those criticising India’s Citizenship Amendment Bill. Elections for namesakes Look closer home. Pakistan’s elections are becoming more and more of a farce, as Imran Khan’s party is being slowly strangled, even as its leader remains imprisoned. The newest is a complete internet shutdown to prevent the party from raising funds and spreading its message. It has already been denied its election symbol of a cricket bat. Party campaigning has only just started with less than three weeks to go, indicating a lacklustre election ahead. With the army now clearly in the hot seat, there is no question of a ‘free and fair’ election. Russia is due to have a presidential election in March, with residents of the parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine annexed by Russia taking part. Media restrictions have already been announced ahead of these elections. That Putin will win is a given, with constitutional amendments instituted to ensure that he can run for two more six-year terms. According to the latest polls from the Levada Centre, Russian President Putin’s approval rating rose three percentage points in November to 85 per cent, and disapproval slid down two points to 13 per cent. That’s good news for India, but expect domestic turbulence as time passes and attempts to unseat him with outside assistance. That applies also to the Bangladesh elections, which saw Sheikh Hasina return yet again to power. The opposition is not going to stay silent, and it might be a good idea to engage with everyone, including the Jamaat-e-Islami. That’s what China does, and with good results. China gets a poke in the eye Speaking of China, the latest elections in Taiwan saw the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) pull off a historic third consecutive presidential victory as voters disregarded warnings by China that their re-election would increase the risk of conflict. The result shows voters backing the DPP’s view that Taiwan is a de facto sovereign nation that should bolster defences against China’s threats and deepen relations with democracies, even if that means economic punishment or military intimidation by Beijing. China responded angrily to a visit by former US officials, noting, “The US needs to exercise extreme prudence in handling Taiwan-related issues and must not obscure and hollow out the one-China principle in any form or send any wrong signal to ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces." Expect trouble, as President Xi greeted the new year with a promise that Taiwan’s reunification with China is ‘inevitable’ in a stronger statement than last year, when he only expressed a ‘hope’ that people on both sides will work together to “jointly foster the lasting prosperity of the Chinese nation”. He has clearly upped the ante at a time when the US is embroiled in war after war, the newest one being against the Houthis. That enterprise doesn’t have as many takers as France or Germany, and the big ones keep out. That much-touted trans-Atlantic partnership could face even more strain in terms of policy towards China. In sum, as India goes into the world’s largest election, get ready for criticism and hype on our ‘Hindu nationalist’ government, not to mention pressure to fall in line with the big power ambitions of both sides, the democracies and the dictators. As wars spread, the global economy could go into another spin, leading to strange bedfellows and stranger tides, now pushing in one direction and sometimes another. Never was our policy of multi-alignment more apt, and the need for deft handling was immense. It is time for the External Affairs ministry in particular to muscle up, with more officers and experts to handle what promises to be a roller coaster year of surprises and shocks. Don’t wait for it. The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. She tweets @kartha_tara. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s_ views. Read all the  Latest News,  Trending News,  Cricket News,  Bollywood News, India News and  Entertainment News here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.