Pew survey proves India is managing its rise far better than China

Ahead of the G20 Summit next week in New Delhi, a major new survey released by Pew Research Center Tuesday on India’s global influence has thrown up some interesting data. Before we cut to the chase it is worth pointing out that statistics sometimes hide more than it reveals, and this cliché is perhaps truer when applied to a metric that seeks to map India’s rise. The reason is simple. As an emerging power, India still lacks the wherewithal to shape global narratives. Its remarkable rise is interpreted, and the discourse around it is determined largely through a warped ‘liberal’ lens that suffers from cultural bias, institutional hatred and otherization of Hindus. The liberal otherization project infantilizes, marginalizes and denigrates Hindus, and interprets a post-colonial society’s nationalistic expression through the prism of European nationalism, drawing sinister conclusions. Understanding this paradigm is crucial to figure out what data tells us about India. According to Pew, the survey was conducted between 20 February and 22 May, 2023, drawing on responses from 30,861 adults in 24 countries, including India. For this study, Pew conducted face-to-face interviews of 2,611 Indian adults from 25 March to 11 May, and the sample is “weighted to be representative of the Indian adult population by gender, age, education, region, urbanicity and other categories.” The survey makes two major points among many interesting subsets. One, it finds that global view of India remains largely positive, with many of the 23 countries surveyed reporting a relatively favourable view. With India slated to host more than 25 global leaders including US president Joe Biden and Chinese president Xi Jinping from 9 September, the study finds that 46 per cent respondents on an average say they have a favourable view of India, compared with a median of 34 per cent with an unfavourable view. In some nations, substantial number of people surveyed do not share an opinion on India, a median of 16 per cent. The second major conclusion drawn by Pew is that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity remains as high as ever with as many as eight in 10 Indians holding a favourable view of the prime minister, including 55 per cent who have a “very favourable view”. That is an incredible level of popularity even after nine years at the helm. Going by the results of this survey, at 79 per cent, Modi remains the hands-on favourite for a third prime ministerial term in the upcoming elections in 2024 with only a fifth holding “an unfavourable opinion.” Coinciding with Modi’s leadership, who has been in power since 2014, the survey also finds that the majority of Indians think the country’s global influence has strengthened in recent years. About seven in 10 Indians, or 68 per cent, feel that India’s geopolitical and geoeconomic clout is on the rise, though this isn’t a view shared across the board in other nations where a median of 28 per cent said India’s influence was getting stronger, while 13 per cent said it was getting weaker among 19 countries surveyed in 2022. However, even though the majority of foreign nations do not share the optimism of Indians when it comes to India’s rising clout, 48 per cent say India’s influence has remained the same, with only 13 per cent saying India has gotten weaker under Modi, a statistic where global and Indian views merge. Interesting to note, however, that Indians are almost bipartisan in their view that the country’s global influence has expanded. Pew stats show that 77 per cent of those who support the BJP hold this opinion, while even among those who don’t support the BJP, a stiff 60 per cent concur with the statement. Pew says men are more likely than women to believe India is getting stronger on the world stage (71 per cent vs 65 per cent, respectively). The findings so far are in sync with the rise in India’s global stature. India’s march to becoming the fifth largest economy in the world is underwritten by landmark reforms, macro stability, fiscal conservatism and an “ eye watering ” infrastructure push. With the Chinese economy sputtering amid talks of ‘stagflation’, India retains its status as the global growth engine, and as the World Bank has pointed out, ‘Indian economy continues to show resilience amid global uncertainties.’ The war in Ukraine has created tectonic geopolitical shifts and India has emerged as a key swing state that everyone wants to woo. Modi has also hewed India closer to the US, and Washington has found in New Delhi a capable and willing partner ready to push back against Chinese military aggression and revanchism in Asia. India’s success lies in harnessing these favourable currents to create a position favourable to its rise. Biggest American conglomerates are looking at India to hedge their bets against uncertainties in China and from leadership of Global South, championing vaccine delivery to the poorest of nations at the height of the pandemic to becoming the first country in the world to successfully soft land a spacecraft on the dark side of the moon, India’s moment has arrived. Amid this, one point that has commanded a fair bit of attention is that though India remains generally more favourable internationally than not, barring Nigeria and Kenya, India’s favourability has dipped in most countries, with the plunge most visible in Europe. While India’s Quad partners — US (51 per cent), Australia (52 per cent) and Japan (55 per cent) are appreciative of India’s rise, India’s fortune has dipped among the African and Latin American countries where the survey was last done in 2013. Pew says evaluations have become more critical in Brazil (-14 points) and South Africa (-8), but more positive in Mexico (+18) and Nigeria (+15). It is in Europe that India’s popularity has dipped more sharply, even among countries such as France with whom India has a close strategic partnership. Modi was recently the chief guest at Bastille Day celebrations in Paris, and was conferred with the country’s highest honour, the Grand Cross of the Legion of Honour, by French President Emmanuel Macron. However, 39 per cent in France has a positive view about India and an equal 39 per cent views have turned negative, but compared to 2008 when 70 per cent French adults held positive views on India, the number has taken a 31 percentage point beating in 15 years. Similarly, India’s popularity has dipped and unfavourability has risen sharply in Poland, Germany, Spain and the Netherlands, among others. Couple of points are worth mentioning here. One, Europe’s views on India have been affected by New Delhi’s stance on the war in Ukraine. India’s neutral position has been misinterpreted as backing of Russia and calls for end of hostilities as ‘reinforcing’ of Russian gains on the battlefield. Clearly, Europeans think Indians are too close to the Russians, an impression that may get further solidified by Pew findings. Indians, say Pew, stand out on overall favorability of Russia as the only place among the 24 countries surveyed this year where majorities say they have a favourable opinion of Russia and have confidence in Russian President Vladimir Putin. India’s strategic autonomy — which has been reinforced by the Pew survey that finds Indians are as positive about the US and Biden as they are about Russia and Putin — possibly makes the Europeans uncomfortable, accustomed as the continent is to tribalism.

Second, India’s dramatic rise and its position as a geopolitical swing state that seeks to play one player against another to derive maximum benefit for itself will inevitably draw negative reactions. India is engaging with Europe, even sub-regions of Europe more than ever before. The low favourability despite such engagement indicates an uncomfortable shift in European perception about India — from a land of holy spirits, exotic poverty, docile power to a middle-income nation given to muscular expression of nationalism and self-interest — evidently the transformation has been too steep to digest. That said, India has managed its rise far better so far than the other ambitious player in Asia, China, whose unfavourability far outstrips India’s in the median — 67 per cent to 34 per cent driven doubtless by its hegemonic designs. Overall, India has done well in creating a situation that facilitates its emergence and its diplomatic efforts have been successful in making more friends than foes. That’s no mean achievement for a country with great power aspirations. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the Latest News , Trending News , Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook , Twitter and Instagram .