Pentagon ‘accounting error’: Overestimation of arms cost boon for Biden to continue funding Ukraine

The critical timing of the dramatic increase in the overestimation of the value of weapons sent to Ukraine to $6.2 billion—$3.6 billion in FY23 and $2.6 billion in FY22—apparently due to a Pentagon’s ‘accounting error’ is suspicious and a blessing for the Joe Biden administration, pumping billions into the quagmire. First  reported by Reuters on 18 May the initial $3-billion overestimation more than doubled by 20 June. The United States (US) has supplied weapons worth around $21.1 billion to Ukraine from its stockpiles since August 2021. Surprisingly in several instances, the Pentagon chose weapons from older stockpiles to expedite the supply to Ukraine but assigned them the value it would cost to replace them entirely rather than their current value, escalating the cost of every new arms package, according to the Department of Defence (DoD). “During our regular oversight process of presidential drawdown packages … In some cases, the ‘replacement cost’ rather than the ‘netbook value’ was used, overestimating the value of the equipment drawn down from US stocks,” Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said on 20 June. “Once we discovered this overvaluation, the Comptroller reissued guidance on 31 March clarifying how to value equipment in line with the financial management regulation and DOD policy to ensure we use the most accurate accounting methods,” she said about the “inconsistencies” in equipment valuation. The ‘accounting error’ couldn’t have come more opportunely.

1. The June debt ceiling agreement has capped national security spending till the next financial year-end (September, 2024) at $886 billion.
2. The Democrats are probably looking for another supplemental spending legislation to back Kyiv.
3. The hard-line GOP faction in the Republican-controlled House is against continuing the staggering financial aid to Ukraine.
4. Former President Donald Trump and Florida governor Ron DeSantis, the leading 2024 Republican presidential candidates, are against further funding Ukraine.
5. The number of Republican and GOP-leaning independent voters against backing Ukraine has increased.

Congress has okayed more than $113 billion in aid, including $37 billion in military assistance, for Ukraine since the Russian invasion in February 2022 in four tranches. According to a 15 June  Congressional Research Service report, security assistance for Ukraine as of 14 June included

• 38 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems
• 8 National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems
• 1 Patriot air defence battery
• 31 Abrams tanks
• 45 T-72B tanks
• 120+ Bradley infantry fighting vehicles
• 300 M113 and 100 Stryker Armoured Personnel Carriers
• 1,700+ Stinger anti-aircraft systems
• 10,000+ Javelin anti-armour systems
• 60,000+ other anti-armour systems
• 160+ 155 mm and 72 105 mm Howitzers and artillery
• 35,000+ grenade launchers and small arms and other equipment.

The latest round of aid, totalling around $45 billion, was approved last December and expected to last until September. However, with the Ukrainian counteroffensive in its initial stages, the aid might not be enough by this financial year-end as only less than $6 billion of that amount remains. In March, Biden asked Congress to provide more than $6 billion to Ukraine in the next fiscal. The administration has already authorised 40 presidential drawdowns—which authorises the President to transfer equipment and services from American stocks without Congressional approval during an emergency—since August 2021. Now, the possibility of Biden requesting more funds by August or September has increased. However, continued military funding for Ukraine could be uncertain considering that the GOP’s hard-line faction in the Republican-controlled House is opposed to it and believes that the whopping amount should be prioritised for domestic issues. Though the  White House said in May that it doesn’t plan to immediately ask Congress for another tranche before September-end, such a move is highly anticipated. With the December package likely to exhaust soon, administration officials anticipate that the White House’s Office of Management and Budget will have to ask Congress for more funding. Even Congressional staffers believe the remaining money would be used earlier than September. Some Republican senators too believe that a supplemental spending Bill is in the offing. “I strongly believe we are going to need a supplemental for defence,”  Maine senator Susan Collins, the top Republican on the Senate Appropriations Committee, told the media in June. Needless to say, the House and the Senate will debate the 2024 defence budget in the next few months—and it could be long and acrimonious. With a very slim Republican majority in the House and at the  mercy of his party’s hard-line faction, Speaker Kevin McCarthy will be reluctant to bring in a Bill on more Ukraine funding. “It doesn’t matter if it’s Ukraine or anything else. The idea that someone wants to go do a supplemental after we just came to an agreement is trying to blow the agreement,” McCarthy told reporters at the Capitol after the debt ceiling deal was passed. McCarthy added that he supported Ukraine and helping it to defeat Russia but won’t allow more funding “for the sake of giving money. I want to see what is the purpose, what is the outcome you want to achieve and then show me the plan to see if I think that plan actually can work”? Connecticut Democratic senator Chris Murphy believes that McCarthy be under “tremendous pressure” and “could wilt” to “abandon Ukraine”. During a  hearing in March, Texas representative and House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Michael McCaul said, “I don’t think the United States should bear the burden of this war and responsibility when it’s in their backyard.” Fellow Texas representative Nathaniel Moran said that the US should “secure our borders, particularly the southern border along the state of Texas” instead of protecting Ukraine. In February, Florida representative Matt Gaetz led a group of 11 legislators, including Georgia’s Marjorie Taylor Greene, to introduce the  “Ukraine Fatigue” Resolution “calling for the United States to halt additional military and financial aid to Ukraine”. “Since the onset of the war last February, the United States has been the top contributor of military equipment and aid to Ukraine, sending over $110 billion of taxpayer money to the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” he said. “America is in a state of managed decline, and it will exacerbate if we continue to haemorrhage taxpayer dollars toward a foreign war. We must suspend all foreign aid for the war in Ukraine and demand that all combatants in this conflict reach a peace agreement immediately,” Gaetz added. During the March Conservative Political Action Conference in Maryland,  Greene said, “I think the US should be pushing for peace in Ukraine instead of funding and continuing a war that seems to be escalating and putting the entire world at risk of world war three.” The  DoD got 55 per cent ($62 billion) of the $113 billion in FY22 and FY23 emergency supplemental funding Congress has appropriated in response to the Russian invasion so far. The DOD funding aims to build the capacity of Ukraine’s armed forces, provide American military weapons and equipment to Ukraine and replenish items transferred from department stocks. The supplemental funding easily sailed through as the Democrats controlled the House and Senate. Here comes the Pentagon ‘accounting error’ into play. Now, the DoD has an additional $6.2 billion for Ukraine which could be spent without Congressional approval with three months left this fiscal. The ‘error’ is also a boon for the Ukrainian counteroffensive with the DoD now able to send more military aid to Ukraine. Ukraine will be one of the major issues in the presidential election with Trump and DeSantis not favouring funding Ukraine. In January, Trump said that the US is giving Ukraine too much financial aid. “The good old USA “suckers” are paying a VAST majority of the NATO bill, & outside money, going to Ukraine. VERY UNFAIR!” he posted on Truth Social. The former President was non-committal to funding Ukraine if he wins a second term. During a  CNN’s town hall in May, he said, “We’re giving away so much equipment; we don’t have ammunition for ourselves right now.” Similarly, DeSantis, who had urged then-President Barack Obama to  arm Ukraine after the Crimea invasion, has somersaulted to Trump’s camp. At Fox & Friends in February, the Florida governor slammed the Ukraine aid as an “ open- ended blank check” and questioned America’s “strategic objective”. “They have effectively a blank-check policy with no clear, strategic objective identified, and these things can escalate. I don’t think it’s in our interests to be getting into a proxy war with China, getting involved over things like the borderlands or over Crimea,” he said. Moreover, Republicans are increasingly sceptical of American aid level to Ukraine. A June Pew Research Centre survey showed that 44% of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents—4 out of 10—feel that the US is providing too much aid to Ukraine compared to 40 per cent in January—the highest level since the Russian invasion. In March 2022, Republicans were only four percentage points more likely than Democrats to say the US is providing too much aid to Ukraine (9% vs. 5%). Today, Republicans are 30 points more likely to say so, the survey showed. The ‘accounting error’ will help the Biden administration tide over the building opposition to further Ukraine aid. Pentagon is not an ordinary tiny company or organisation where an accounting error is possible. When billions are involved, the sudden overestimation of the value of weapons is highly suspicious. The writer is a freelance journalist with two decades of experience and comments primarily on foreign affairs. Views expressed are personal. Read all the Latest News , Trending News ,  Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.