Pakistan political crisis deepens as army teams up with Shehbaz Sharif government to battle Imran Khan's PTI

Ashraf Jehangir Qazi is one of Pakistan’s most respected former diplomats who has served as his country’s High Commissioner to India among the several senior assignments he held in his distinguished career. In an article published in Pakistan’s respected newspaper Dawn on 30 March, Qazi began with words both tragic and accurate. He wrote “Pakistan is imploding. The president and prime Minister are at war. The judiciary is divided and the military is considering its options. The Election Commission of Pakistan challenges the Constitution and the Supreme Court. The prime minister of Pakistan attacks the chief justice of Pakistan. Government leaders threaten its either Imran or them. The doctrine of necessity is being revived by a caretaker government and its puppeteers pulling the strings”. While Qazi dwelt on the political situation what he omitted to mention was that this no-holds-barred and sordid drama is being played out in the direst macro-economic situation and at a time when the security forces are confronting the Tehreek-e-Taliban-Pakistan (TTP) which has upped the terrorist ante against the state. No wonder Pakistan’s foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari was compelled to candidly admit to a US TV channel some weeks ago that his country was caught in a “perfect storm”. No wonder, also, hearing a petition on 27 March against the Election Commission’s postponing elections to Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Provincial Assemblies to 8 October, despite the Supreme Court’s order, that they be held if not, as constitutionally required, within 90 days of the dissolution of the assemblies then in the shortest period of time thereafter, the Court’s judge Munib Akhtar asked “Has the (country) become a banana republic? Armed Forces are subordinate to the government …how can they refuse [to perform election duty]. Justice Akhtar’s indignation against the Pakistan army was futile. In his heart he would know well the absurdity of asserting that the Pakistan Army is subordinate to the government. It is not and has never been so. Ironically the Pakistan judiciary has always been a party to army interventions to overthrow governments and tear up the country’s constitutions in the past; it has upheld them using the doctrine of necessity. Only once did they show courage to arraign an army chief (Musharraf) for treason but that was after he had retired from that office. Then too the entire judicial action had an air of fiction about it for the Courts knew well that their orders would not be countenanced by the army. For all the popularity that former prime minister and head of the Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) Imran Khan may enjoy in substantial sections of the country’s population, the army today too is simply unwilling to subordinate itself to the government or any other institution. But Khan is posing a stiff challenge to the army and the real game being played out is between the army chief General Asim Munir and Khan. The rest of the drama is worthy of attention but its acts and scenes are not the real power struggle underway in Pakistan. Khan has clothed himself in the robes of a martyr to foreign machinations and internal collaborators. He continues to project himself as the leader who has stood for the izzat and gairat of the country. He has invoked Islamic history to lure crowds towards himself; and, his devotees have shown a willingness to overlook his past lifestyle and his transgressions as prime minister. They are willing to follow him blindly and turn up in large numbers at his call. His jalsa at the Minar-e-Pakistan on 25 March demonstrated this fact even if his speech outlining his approach to resolving Pakistan’s economic troubles was full of stale and previously failed mumbo-jumbo. Some Pakistani observers opine that Khan’s mass appeal has caused splits in families and between old friends. All this is true. But does it mean that, when all is said and done, the majority of the Pakistani people would be willing to back Imran Khan against the army? This question is relevant, especially for India, because the army has sedulously fed the people with the narrative of a permanently hostile India which is willing to completely damage Pakistan and that it is only, they, the men in khaki, who can keep this marauding monster at bay. So long as this narrative is alive — and there is no indication that it is going away — a majority of the Pakistani people who have shown a willingness to the generals appropriating the largest proportion of state resources, both for the institution and as also for personal benefit, will not abandon the army even if they admire Khan. Naturally, the army and especially its chief General Asim Munir who has to defend the status of his office and the institution in Pakistan’s national life and who also bears a personal grudge against Khan would not like to openly confront Khan. He would much rather that Khan and his supporters are taken on by different Pakistani institutions and the political class. That is what is in play at the moment and what has been succinctly summed up by Qazi in his Dawn article. A brief consideration of the latest developments, some unprecedented, is instructive for it shows the chaos in the country. Arif Alvi who was a PTI member before he became Pakistan’s president wrote a letter to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on 24 March accusing the government of human rights transgressions which had tarnished country’s international image. He also accused the government of unleashing a “reign of terror against media persons”. Besides, he stated, that the Federal and the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa governments had instructed concerned officials not to co-operate with the Pakistan Election Commission so that elections for these assemblies could not be held as mandated by him on the basis of the Supreme Court judgment. Prime minister Shehbaz Sharif responded to Alvi with all guns blazing. He charged him of dereliction of duty in the past and complained that his letter to him read in part “like a Press Release” of the PTI; hence, he charged Alvi of acting in a partisan manner on PTI’s behalf. Sharif defended his government’s record. Finally, Sharif bluntly informed Alvi that he had to follow the advice of the government as specified in the constitution. Alvi is a lightweight and his conduct has been highly dubious but never has such dirty linen between a president and a prime minister washed even in Pakistan. The only one to really gain from such an exchange is army chief Asim Munir. In this dismal scene Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah’s remarks to a TV channel indicated the depths to which Pakistani politics has descended. He implied that the constitution and the people’s mandate now mattered little for it was either Imran Khan or ‘us’ who would politically survive. Could a senior cabinet minister make such remarks unless he was convinced that he had the army’s support? Unlikely, but Pakistani politicians especially like Rana Sanaullah are not known to behave responsibly especially in crunch political situations. That General Asim Munir would manoeuvre to ensure that Imran Khan is kept out of the next general elections is clear. But does he have the support of the soldiery and the junior officers who are, after all, from families that have persons who are devoted followers of Khan? Till now the army ranks have never revolted against their chiefs and there is no evidence that they are presently willing to do so. The divisions in the senior Pakistan judiciary are now out in the open. Many judges are displaying a perception of political partisanship. Pakistan’s chief justice Umar Ata Bandial took suo motu notice of the provincial assembly elections delay case. He constituted a bench of nine judges. Two of them recused themselves and thereafter seven judges began to hear it. Two judges of this seven-judge bench gave a note objecting to the suo motu action, holding that it was not maintainable. Thereafter, the bench was reduced to five and finally the ruling in favour of ordering the Election Commission to hold election soonest was taken by a 3:2 majority. The government maintained that as the original bench was seven and the earlier two had objected to the views of the majority in the five-judge bench the actual verdict was 4:3 in the government’s favour. Later a two-judge bench agreed with the government view. Now the government has passed legislation seeking to curtail the chief justice’s powers to constitute benches in some kind of cases. All in all, confusion and instability prevail in the Pakistan Supreme Court. Finally, many civil society do-gooders are trying to mediate between the warring sections of the political class. While their efforts are on, the army and the Sharif government is not letting up on its actions against PTI people. Hence, this appears to be a fight to the finish with Asim Munir and his B team—the People’s Democratic Movement Alliance government on one side and Imran Khan on the other. Pakistan is in for a difficult summer on all counts notwithstanding what the courts may opine. The writer is a former Indian diplomat who served as India’s Ambassador to Afghanistan and Myanmar, and as secretary, the Ministry of External Affairs. Views expressed are personal. Read all the  Latest News,  Trending News,  Cricket News,  Bollywood News, India News and  Entertainment News here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.