Pakistan enters caretaker interregnum: What lies ahead for Anwaar ul Haq Kakar?

On 9 August, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif recommended dissolution of the National Assembly (NA), bringing to a close a rather tumultuous 16 months of problem-ridden governance by the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) coalition, after it threw out the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government of former prime minister, Imran Khan through a no-confidence motion on 9 April, 2022. President Arif Alvi promptly accepted this advice, dissolving the National Assembly. Dissolution of the Sindh and Balochistan provincial assemblies followed, setting the stage for general elections within the constitutionally stipulated 90 days, as prescribed under Article 224 (1) of the 1973 Constitution. However, after the Council of Common Interests (CCI) approved the findings of Pakistan’s first ever digitally completed population census in April 2023, which puts the population at 249.5 million, it has become mandatory for the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to delimit electoral constituencies afresh, as required under Section 14 of the Elections Act 2017. This is a process which takes roughly four months. At present, out of NA’s 266 elected seats, Punjab has 141 seats, Sindh 61, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) 45, Balochistan 16 and the Federal Capital Area (Islamabad) three seats. While this will not change, boundaries of Provincial Assembly constituencies would have to be redrawn. This promises to be a fairly complex and politically fractious exercise, which may delay the general elections to late February or early March next year (2024). Who will be caretaker PM? Several names cropped up for the post of caretaker prime minister, who has to be appointed by consensus. At one stage, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) wanted Finance Minister Ishaq Dar to be chosen while the People’s Party suggested another heavyweight, former foreign secretary Jalil Abbas Jilani. Rumour mills in Pakistani media even suggested that the name of former army chief General Raheel Sharif was under consideration. Dark horse Ultimately, in a complete surprise, Anwaar ul Haq Kakar, a Pashtun politician affiliated with the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) was appointed caretaker prime minister on 14 August, 2023. Hailing from the Khan Mitarzai area of Killa Saifullah district in northern Balochistan, 52-year-old Kakar is a first generation politician from a middle class background. In his university days, he was earning a living through private tuitions and temporarily, as a UNHCR project evaluator. He is reported to have had left of centre leanings in Baloch student politics. Apprehending trouble from authorities, he left for United Kingdom. After his return from UK though, he transformed into an establishment backed politician, first joining the Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid – e Azam) {PML-Q} in 2008, which supported General (Retd) Pervez Musharraf. He lost in the elections to the Balochistan Assembly. He then switched allegiance to the PML-N, joining the Sanaullah Zehri-led coalition in the province, along with his political mentor, Jam Kamal. In 2018, they formed the BAP, which supported Imran Khan in the 2018 elections. When Imran Khan’s government came to power at the Centre, Jam Kamal became chief minister in Balochistan. However, a deal with the military establishment, under which Anwaar ul Haq Kakar was to be made Senate Chairman came unstuck, as the Director General, Inter Services Intelligence, (DG,ISI), Lt Gen Faiz Hameed backed Sadiq Sanjrani for the post instead. Kakar is reported to have fallen out with Faiz Hameed and even openly remonstrated with him then. This may have stood him in good stead with the present military leadership. Rifts emerged within BAP at this juncture, between the Jam Kamal and Mir Quddus Bizenjo factions. The latter became Balochistan’s new chief minister in October 2021. Kakar had by then, developed the reputation of an establishment protégé, being in constant touch with ISI’s Balochistan sector commander, Brigadier Mumtaz and appearing on the military backed Voice of Balochistan media programmes. He was also enlisted on the Quetta Command and Staff College’s visiting faculty as a speaker on foreign relations. Though much is being made of giving attention to smaller provinces, the PML (N) may have extended lukewarm backing to Kakar’s candidature, expecting that he may function as a comparatively weak or lightweight caretaker prime minister. These expectations may well be belied in days to come. Baloch nationalists are quite unhappy with this choice, as it became evident in Balochistan National Party (BNP-Mengal) leader, Sardar Akhtar Mengal’s letter to Nawaz Sharif, expressing dismay at the choice and PML(N)’s backing of elements favoring use of force instead of political solutions for the province. In an interview with well-known TV compere, Hamid Mir, Mengal even suggested, Kakar’s choice would serve as ‘undertaker’, not caretaker for democracy in Pakistan! Meanwhile, to buttress the constitutional requirement of neutrality, Kakar announced his resignation both as Senator and from his party, the BAP. It remains to be seen if his caretaker cabinet would have professional heavyweight experts, especially in Finance, as promises extended to the IMF will need to be fulfilled. Caretaker regimes have also come in, under Justice (retd) Maqbool Baqar in Sindh and in Balochistan, where consensus has so far eluded choosing the caretaker chief minister. In Punjab and KP, caretaker chief ministers Mohsin Naqvi and Azam Khan respectively, who have already legally outlasted their three-month tenures, are likely to continue in their posts. What happens to Arif Alvi? Uncertainty surrounds the fate of president Arif Alvi, PTI’s last bastion, whose term ends on 8 September. As the Presidential College is incomplete and as the caretaker prime minister’s post has already gone to Balochistan, Senate Chairman Sadiq Sanjrani may not automatically step into his shoes as acting president, if Alvi resigns. There is talk that he may be allowed to continue till new elections are held. Imran’s sustaining popular support Much of the army leadership’s strategy in bringing in this new caretaker set up seems to have stemmed from the need to counter the continuing popularity of Imran Khan, whose supporters have been making a daily bee-line to Attock jail, demanding to meet him and chanting slogans in protest. The dilemma which will confront the establishment in coming months is how to credibly go through the exercise of general elections which do not result in a landslide for the jailed leader’s party, though he is now disqualified from contesting for five years. They will somehow have to conjure a split mandate, without any political party gaining majority in the NA. Unrealistic expectations of change After last-minute amendments to Section 30 of the Election Act, 2017, empowering the caretaker government to pursue follow-up initiatives, even on major policy issues, many unrealistic expectations have been voiced about what this caretaker regime can achieve. These expectations have shifted from addressing a quagmire of weak governance, politics as usual, economic stagnation, and eroded public faith in state institutions to charting a new course that takes into account the social and economic changes reflected in the aspirations of a newly emergent, aspiring middle class, which is predominantly urban based. Much is being made of the formation of the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC), the army’s foray into controlled agricultural development, the involvement of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabian royalty into development projects like the Reko Diq gold and copper mining projects, which have languished in litigation for long. In a more realistic assessment of these ambitions, seasoned Karachi-based economist, Kaiser Bengali recently warned against unrealistic hopes which may lead only to more debts, defaults and even possibly transfer of valuable Pakistani assets, in a transition he referred to in rather derogative terms, as a new form of ‘cantonment colonialism’. General Asim Munir’s Independence Day address at PMA, Kakul Speaking to cadets at Pakistan Military Academy, Kakul on 14 August, General Asim Munir urged them “to reject despondency, propaganda of naysayers and fear mongers’, who were projecting Pakistan’s progress as ‘a failed attempt to foment despair and hopelessness’. He reassured the people of the army’s traditional vision of itself - ’that we the defenders of Pakistan, will never hesitate from any sacrifice in preserving our sovereignty and territorial integrity’. He cautioned that recent `attempts to drive a wedge between Army and Nation were reprehensible’ and ‘would not be allowed to succeed’. Notably, his message to Kashmiris and warnings to the ’traditional enemy’, India had a stronger tenor, reiterating that ’no evil design could withstand their rightful cause of self-determination and indigenous freedom struggle,’ ‘despite the communication blackouts, blatant use of the bayonets and turning illegally Indian occupied Jammu and Kashmir into the largest prison of the world.’ He alleged, India’s ‘strategic calculus was skewed by its outsized ambition, carrying an illusion of being a great power and blinded by Hindutva driven hyper nationalism’. India, according to him, had never been able to reconcile with the idea of Pakistan and remained a threat to regional peace and stability. Pakistan knew well how to defend itself against such threats. These remarks should only alert India not to be complacent, as nothing had changed in the army mindset and continue watching Pakistan’s internal developments with `a hawk-eye’. The writer is a former special secretary, Cabinet Secretariat. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the Latest News , Trending News , Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.