Pakistan: Amid economic crisis, ruling PDM coalition and army struggle to counter Imran Khan's popularity

Almost eleven months after the Pakistan-e-Tehreek-e-Insaaf led coalition government led by Prime Minister Imran Khan was thrown out through a vote of no-confidence in the National Assembly in April 2022 and the Shahbaz Sharif led Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) government took office, Pakistan continues to be in the grip of confusion and all-round crises.   The country’s political class and the judiciary are conducting themselves irresponsibly. The army, under its new chief General Asim Munir, who assumed office over three months ago, has not shown its hand on how it wishes to navigate the nation through the current mess. Meanwhile, the macro-economic situation is barely holding as Pakistan waits for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to release an instalment of funds which will give confidence to donors to open their purse strings thereby bringing an element of economic stability howsoever temporarily. In this gloomy situation one fact stands out: despite their best endeavours the PDM alliance parties have not been able to significantly dent Imran Khan’s popularity among the people especially in the critical province of the Punjab. A recent Gallup poll report noted “Imran Khan was positively rated with 61 per cent of Pakistanis having a good opinion about him. At the second position is Nawaz Sharif and Bilawal Bhutto with 36 per cent of Pakistanis having a good opinion about both of them”. Nawaz Sharif is the Pakistan Muslim League (N) supremo now living in exile in London. He is the elder brother of Shahbaz Sharif and is a thrice elected Prime Minister of Pakistan.   The PML(N)’s base is in Punjab but it has obviously weakened. Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari is the current Foreign Minister and the son of the assassinated former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and former President Asif Ali Zardari. The Bhutto-Zardaris head the Pakistan Peoples Party whose stronghold lies in the Sindh province. It should be recalled that the army under its former chief General Qamar Bajwa was instrumental in working for the ouster of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif who won the 2013 elections but was on inimical terms with the force.   Bajwa used the embarrassing revelations of the Panama Papers and the courts judged Nawaz Sharif as not fulfilling the requirements of being “sadiq and ameen” that is being honest and trustworthy as all Pakistan members of the National Assembly are required to be under the country’s constitution. The PML(N) has always believed, with some justification, that the courts were unfair to Nawaz Sharif. Having ensured the departure of Nawaz Sharif and his being sent to jail on charges of corruption the army moved behind the scenes to ensure the victory of Imran Khan in the 2018 elections. Khan repaid Bajwa by extending his tenure for three years in 2019. Bajwa also listened to Imran Khan and replaced Lt General Asim Munir as DG, ISI by Khan’s favourite army officer Lt General Faiz Hameed. However, Bajwa grew increasingly unhappy with the proximity of Hameed with Imran Khan and moved him out of the ISI in October 2021. Khan protested and refused to endorse the move for a long time. Finally, Imran Khan agreed to Faiz Hameed’s transfer but the damage was done. It had become quite apparent in the closing months of 2021 that Bajwa would not want Khan to appoint his successor. Despite his protestations to the contrary it is clear that he ensured that the three principal opposition parties—the PML(N), the PPP and Maulana Fazlul Rehman’s JUI(F) joined hands to successfully work for removing Imran Khan from the Prime Minister’s seat. That objective was achieved in April last year with the help of the judiciary. Bajwa also ensured that the PDM alliance of the three parties held together till end November last year when his extended term expired. It is believed that Munir was Nawaz Sharif’s choice as army chief. Thus, Bajwa and his group of generals achieved their basic objective of keeping Imran Khan out of interfering in the appointment of the army chief. Where they failed, as did the PDM was in reducing Imran Khan’s popularity with the people in the Punjab. Khan knows that his way back to power lies through elections and has therefore manoeuvred over since the past nine months to attempt that elections to the National Assembly are held prior to the end of its normal term in August this year.   To hasten the process he has chosen the path of showing his popularity by having the Punjab and the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP) provincial assemblies dissolved in January so that elections, as mandated in the constitution, are held to elect the new assemblies by mid-April. The PDM has tried every trick in the book, including causing fractures in the Supreme Court, to delay the elections but under the Court’s decision elections to these assemblies will now have to be held. The date for the Punjab assembly has been finalised; it will be held on April 30. The KP assembly election date will also be finalised soon. The PDM government, no doubt with the support of some of the top generals, are seeking to enmesh Imran Khan on corruption charges. The case of choice relates to the way he “sold” some of the expensive gifts he received from foreign dignitaries for personal benefit. He did deposit a part of the sale proceeds in the Pakistani treasury but the method he followed in dealing with these gifts smack of impropriety if not a breaking of the rules.   Clearly, the PDM and the army would like the courts to hold him guilty before the National Assembly elections thereby ensuring that he cannot become a candidate. They obviously hope that the PTI will witness in-fighting if Imran Khan cannot be its leader in government. But the question is if this will affect his popularity with the people and therefore the election results. It is difficult to make firm predictions but it can be stated that corruption is so widespread in Pakistan’s polity and society that the people may well ignore it even if Khan is held guilty of corruption. How his party members behave is a different matter. The other issue is that as the weeks pass and the National Assembly elections come closer it will be difficult for the PDM parties to maintain their unity to ensure that Khan is defeated in the elections. With a fractured PDM Khan’s path will become easier. The million dollar question is, of course, if an Asim Munir led army will easily accept Khan and if it ostensibly does in case of a PTI victory, will it not work to erode his position? Meanwhile, the fact is that the PDM’s popularity has been adversely impacted by the current dire economic situation. Under the IMF stipulations subsidies are being withdrawn leading to the rise in prices of energy and food. This is leading to great popular anger and the target of the anger is naturally the government in power. The holy month of Ramzan will begin in less than a fortnight from now and popular tempers are likely to flare up. The question is whether they will spill onto the streets. Amidst all this trouble the country’s security situation because of the terrorist actions of Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan are likely to continue during the month of Ramzan especially against non-Sunni targets. Such actions will only exacerbate an already fraught situation. The writer is a former Indian diplomat who served as India’s Ambassador to Afghanistan and Myanmar, and as secretary, the Ministry of External Affairs. Views expressed are personal. 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