Pakistan after the fall of Imran Khan: Get ready for a fresh round of instability

The Pakistan Supreme Court (SC) redeemed itself in no uncertain manner on 7 April. Ruling unanimously, the five-member bench headed by Chief Justice Omar Ata Bandial set aside the Deputy Speaker’s ruling of 3 April against the no-trust motion as “contrary to the Constitution and the law, and of no legal effect”. The Prime Minister’s advice to the President to dissolve the National Assembly (NA) and the latter’s rubber stamping of the same, were also deemed invalid. Disregarding the “doctrine of necessity”, the court did not go for the easier option of general elections.

High drama ensued during the no-confidence vote in the NA on 9 April, with the debate dragging on late into the night. Rumours swirled about possible dismissal orders being issued against senior Army functionaries, after a last-minute Cabinet meeting. Reports of a mysterious helicopter visit to the PM house with two senior military officials were denied as baseless by the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR). However, other credible sources allege that Lt Gen Nadeem Anjum, DG, ISI, and Brig Mehr Omar Khan, CO, 111 Brigade did meet Imran Khan, following which his boorish behaviour softened. The Supreme Court and Islamabad High Court opened in night hours and prisoner vans appeared outside the NA. These too, had a sobering effect, warning of possible contempt action against the Speaker and recalcitrant Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) MNAs.

The nation seemed shocked by this attempt by a civilian politician to resort blatantly to unconstitutional steps to hang on to power, rather in the manner of a military dictator. However, an alert judiciary prevented further abrogation of the democratic process. The Army too carefully restrained itself from intervening, despite deliberate provocation from its erstwhile protégé.

After his unceremonious ouster, Imran Khan announced a programme of holding mass rallies — at Peshawar, Karachi and Lahore — where he intends to keep ranting about an alleged American conspiracy and demand immediate elections. He has forced reluctant PTI members to offer resignations en masse from the National Assembly, and later, provincial assemblies too, to build pressure for general elections. He hopes this strategy will help build a populist revival for his party’s fortunes.

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In the last fortnight, pro-PTI trollers on social media intensified personal attacks against Army Chief Gen Qamar Bajwa and even the Chief Justice. Several fake video and audio tapes emerged on social media, criticising Gen Bajwa. These were authored ostensibly by senior retired Army officers, forcing some of them like former Army Chief Gen Aslam Beg to retract from the alleged accusations. In raids on 11-12 April, the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) arrested known PTI mastermind Arsalan Khalid and several others behind this campaign. The 79th Corps Commanders Conference, held on 12 April, took stern notice of this “propaganda campaign” and “attempt to divide institutions and society”.

Other reports surfaced, about Imran’s attempts to divide the senior Army leadership. Though it was known that he preferred to make former ISI chief Lt Gen Faiz Hameed, currently XI Corps Commander, the next Army Chief, at the last minute, on 9 April, he apparently offered the prize post to Lt Gen Shaheen Mazhar Mehmood, currently 1 Corps Commander, Mangla (and erstwhile head of the Peshawar command). Mazhar reportedly declined, alerting also Gen Bajwa. This may have prompted the helicopter saga. Other senior Generals rallied behind the Army Chief at this stage. Be that as it may, this controversy would have dampened chances of an extension for Gen Bajwa when his term ends in November 2022. In this backdrop, the new administration may prefer to rely on non-controversial consensus or seniority, while selecting the new Army Chief.

Shehbaz Sharif made all the right noises during an impressive inaugural speech as PM in the National Assembly. At the very outset, he said that the matter of the alleged foreign conspiracy and the letter/CCB telegram sent by Pakistan’s US envoy, Asad Majeed Khan, raked up by Imran Khan, would be examined by the Parliament’s Security Committee, where views of the powerful military establishment would be sought.

Uphill challenges face the new government. This became starkly evident during Shehbaz’s swearing in by Senate Chairman, Sadiq Sanjrani, on 11 April evening. President Arif Alvi, who is counted as one of Imran Khan’s staunchest supporters, stayed away, feigning illness. Though Gen Nadeem Raza, Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, attended the delayed swearing in ceremony along with the Air and Navy Chiefs, Army Chief Gen Bajwa absented, probably to demonstrate his distance from the new dispensation.

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Acknowledging difficult economic challenges, Shehbaz Sharif tactfully announced a few populist concessions for the poorer sections of society during Ramzan. Miftah Ismail, likely to be the Finance Minister, indicated that Pakistan would have to go back to the International Monetary Fund to negotiate difficult bail outs while formulating the new budget.

Keeping his coalition intact before going for fresh elections would be another of Shehbaz’s priorities. Of the 174 votes won in the vote of confidence, PML (N) has 84 while PPP has 56, the MMA 15 (mainly JuI-F), MQM 7, Balochistan parties 4 each (BAP and BNM). The Cabinet could broadly reflect this power sharing, with PML (N) getting 12 ministers, PPP 7, JuI-F 4, MQM 2, others 1 each. However, the formation of the Cabinet is taking time, as difficult persuasion of polyglot allies lies ahead.

The PPP appears reluctant to join. Whether Bilawal Bhutto Zardari takes on the Foreign Ministry himself, as is being widely rumoured, or hands it over to former Foreign Minister, Hina Rabbani Khar would indicate how seriously the PPP takes its own role in the smooth functioning of the coalition. There is a view, of party ‘jiyalas’ (loyalists), that he should not be seen working in a position subservient to Shehbaz Sharif, even in the short term.

Differences within PML (N) itself may pose a problem. Two different narratives prevailed while the party was in the Opposition. Even as the 2018 election was allegedly stolen, the “vote ko izzat do” (honour the vote) line was touted as an effective slogan for catching support of the masses, especially in Punjab. Former PM Nawaz Sharif went ballistic in his Gujranwala and Quetta speeches during the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) agitation last year, criticising Generals Bajwa and Faiz Hameed by name. The Army’s role in Nawaz Sharif’s ouster, in sequel to the Dawn leaks of October 2016 and the Panama investigations, still rankles within the PML(N). On the other hand, Shehbaz Sharif has been identified with a more moderate line, espousing avoidance of confrontation with the military establishment. This duality leads to a persisting distrust between the senior Army leadership and the Sharif family, which would need to be addressed suitably as the Shehbaz administration settles in.

The nature of the present crisis in Pakistan is different from similar ones in the past. Political parties used to vie with, even conspire against, one another for favours of the military establishment. They do not so readily any longer. Phone calls too from unspoken behind the scene quarters have ceased. Opprobrium of the masses for Imran Khan’s misgovernance has focused against the Army. Its failure in imposing different ‘hybrid’ models is being increasingly questioned by discerning critics in Pakistan’s civil society. The Army leadership is aware of this prevailing mood, as it decides its responses to the fast changing domestic political situation. A new round of instability is likely in the days to come, which will make the task of governing effectively difficult for the new administration.

The writer is a former special secretary, Cabinet Secretariat. Views expressed are personal.

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