On election eve, it’s advantage to Nawaz Sharif, but Imran Khan can never be discounted

Pakistan goes to the polls for the National and Provincial Assemblies on February 8. The country’s Election Commission announced on February 1 that elections will go ahead despite a few terrorist incidents in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces. The main feature of the pre-election scenario is the disqualification of former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan-Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) party candidates to contest on their party symbol—a cricket bat. They will therefore be contesting as independent candidates, even though the electorate will know that they are actually representatives of the PTI. Imran Khan continues to be in jail and was recently convicted in the Cypher and the Toshakhana cases. In the former case, former Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi was also convicted. In the latter matter, Imran Khan’s current wife, Bushra Bibi, was convicted too. She was sentenced to 14 years of imprisonment and barred from holding any office under the state. The army and the superior judiciary have put all their might against Khan. They are determined to ensure that the PTI does not have a chance of succeeding in these elections. Before elections, the prospects of different parties and their leaders are considered, and elections in Pakistan would not be out of place. The forthcoming election will be the 11th direct election on the basis of the universal adult franchise. It is acknowledged by almost all scholars that only the first such election, which was held in December 1970 when Pakistan was still a united country, was free and fair, even though it was conducted under a military dictator, General Yahya Khan. In that election, the Sheikh Mujibur Rehman-led Awami Party, which was very popular in East Pakistan, won a majority and, by right, should have been invited to form the government. However, the army as well as West Pakistani politicians led by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, whose Pakistan’s People’s Party won the second-highest number of seats, rejected the idea of the Awami Party forming the government. A military crackdown and mass killings in East Pakistan followed in March 1971. That set into motion events that led to the breakup of Pakistan and the formation of Bangladesh. The 1970 election is being recalled because no election after that in Pakistan can be called to be held in a free and fair manner. While the 1977 election was rigged by Bhutto, which created conditions that led to the General Ziaul Haq coup that year, later elections, after the death of Zia in 1988, were manipulated to a greater or lesser extent by the army. The last election—in 2018—was so managed by the army as to ensure the defeat of the Nawaz Sharif-led Pakistan Muslim League (N) and the victory of Imran Khan and his PTI. Now the wheel has turned. Imran Khan has become the bitter foe of army chief General Asim Munir and generals close to him. The enmity between the two reached a point of no-return when PTI cadres confronted the army on May 9 because of Imran Khan’s arrest. Worse, PTI cadres and Khan’s supporters damaged army installations and martyrs’ monuments. Asim Munir became determined to grind Khan into the political dust, and in the process, he also purged the army of officers who were suspected to be close to him. It will be recalled that Imran Khan was ousted from the Prime Minister’s office in April 2022. He was replaced by the People’s Democratic Movement (PDM) government led by the PML (N) leader and Nawaz Sharif’s brother Shahbaz Sharif. The PDM government was dissolved in August 2023 after it had completed its constitutionally mandated term of five years. It was replaced by a caretaker government led by Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar. The caretaker government’s duty is to help the Election Commission conduct the elections within 90 days of the dissolution of the National Assembly, but the Commission expressed its inability to do so because of the delimitation of seats. The real purpose of delaying the elections was to ensure that the cases against Imran Khan would reach a conclusive stage and he would be sentenced so that he could not contest the elections. Also, that the PTI was finished as a political party. The main parties in the PDM alliance were the PML (N), the PPP, and Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s JUI (F). Once the PDM government was dissolved, it was natural for these parties to go their different ways. The PML (N) and the PPP have been rivals, and that is showing up in the current elections too, even though election campaigning has been largely lackluster. This has been commented on by Pakistani analysts who are also pointing out, as Maleeha Lodhi, the well-known journalist who has also served as Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States and the United Nations, did, that social media has become a great vehicle for electioneering. The army has mended its fences with the PML (N), which led to the return of Nawaz Sharif from political exile in London. Nawaz Sharif is contesting from two constituencies and can be expected to aim to become Pakistan’s Prime Minister for the fourth time. The PML(N) has a vast network in Punjab and also has a presence in the other provinces. What matters, though, is how successful it will be in the country’s most important province, Punjab. Indeed, it is Punjab that decides Pakistani politics. In the normal course, PML (N) should not have any difficulty in Punjab, but what is unknown is the actual support base that Imran Khan still has, especially among the youth and women in the province and also in other parts of the country. Certainly, the army has ensured that Imran Khan has remained in custody for nine months at a stretch and has not been able to campaign. His main supporters were coerced to leave him, and those who remain have been compelled to contest as independents. All attempts have been made to tarnish Khan’s image. Despite all this, it is only when the results come out that it will become known if the army, the rest of the political class, and the judiciary have been able to finish him off politically. Of course, as can be expected, Khan, from jail, has been warning that the results will be manipulated and that the PML (N) has gained control of the Election Commission computers so that the numbers conveyed by the polling booths are electronically manipulated in its favour. He has therefore asked his supporters to be particularly vigilant at the booth level. The army, from behind the scenes, will also seek to manage the elections against Khan. Even though it denies that it has the ability to manipulate elections, its capability to influence Pakistan’s politics is enormous. Thus, even if the independents who are PTI proxies do well, it can be expected that they will come under pressure to join the PML (N). This will be especially true in Punjab. It may not be so easy in KP. As far as Sindh is concerned, the PPP should do well, retain the Provincial Assembly, and have a fair number of seats in the National Assembly too. On the eve of the elections, the scales are tilted in Nawaz Sharif’s favour, but elections are never certain. If Imran Khan is able to demonstrate that he retains substantial support, notwithstanding all that has been thrown at him, Pakistan may well be in for a further spell of instability. And that will be under a continuing economic crisis. Much rides on the election results for Pakistan’s future, though the Pakistani army will, in any event, keep full control of the reins of the country’s national life. The writer is a former Indian diplomat who served as India’s Ambassador to Afghanistan and Myanmar, and as secretary, the Ministry of External Affairs. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the  Latest News,  Trending News,  Cricket News,  Bollywood News, India News and  Entertainment News here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.