Off-centre | The invasion of Israel: Are we closer to WWIII?

In the rapidly changing dynamics of the still unfolding aftermath of the invasion of Israel by Hamas, it is difficult, even foolhardy, to make any predictions. But one thing is clear. Saturday’s Hamas attack is most likely not a flash in the pan, but a major event with long-term after-effects. With one on-going war in Ukraine and another as yet not fully resolved in Syria, the West and its allies, including Israel, on one side will be more sharply in opposition with Russia, China, Iran, and whoever else wishes to be on the other side. Are we closer to World War III than ever before? While the answer is yes, it is crucial to emphasise that there is still time to roll back from the precipice of an out-of-control global conflict. The raid on Israel by Hamas, while not a new development in the hopelessly tangled web of Middle Eastern conflicts, raises critical questions about the stability of the global order. The world is currently witnessing a confluence of geopolitical tensions that have the potential to reshape international dynamics in ways previously unimagined. The Israel-Hamas conflict, with its deep-rooted historical and political complexities, has long simmered beneath the surface of the Middle East. The latest invasion by Hamas is not merely a localized flare-up but rather a symptom of broader regional tensions. The conflict is inextricably linked to the larger Middle Eastern power struggle, with Iran openly, and possibly Russia, T even China, covertly supporting Hamas. Israel, of course, enjoys the backing of all major Western nations, primarily the United States, as well as more recently vocal India. This dichotomy underscores the potential for a more profound and widespread conflict. But before proceeding, let us underscore how colossal a failure of intelligence this invasion is. How is it that Israeli defence forces, including their highly regarded intelligence agencies, were caught napping? Over 2,000 – some estimates put the number at over 5,000 – rockets were fired from Gaza into Israeli territory, with coordinated land and sea infiltration by the Hamas terrorists. How did Israel let them gather so much fire power without intervening? How is that their planning, which must have been ongoing for months, was neither intercepted nor disrupted? Worse, further attacks may follow from the north, where Hezbollah is already threatening to cross the border from Lebanon and, for all one knows, from the West Bank, ruled by the more moderate Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO). What about many hostiles who might already be within Israel, having crossed over legally with work permits and passes? Moreover, who actually benefits by this opening up of another theatre of war against Israel, which has already drawn in the US? The latter has diverted supplies meant for Ukraine to Israel. The war in Ukraine, which began as a regional dispute, has grown into a global flashpoint. The Western world, led by the United States and the European Union, has consistently condemned Russia’s actions and imposed sanctions. This conflict has strained relations between the West and Russia to an extent not seen since the Cold War, with the potential to draw in other nations on both sides. The situation is further complicated by China’s strategic interests and its growing alignment with Russia, creating a formidable opposition bloc. Now, will the West shift its combined might from Europe to the Middle East? Will this mean that the heat will be off Russia? Certainly, prolonged conflict in the Middle East will draw crucial Western resources from the Ukraine conflict, thus strengthening Russia’s position. What about China? Its rising influence was seen in the peace talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran, but with this conflict any hope for progress on that front seems doomed. Also impeded will be the normalisation of relations between the Saudis and Israel, a prospect that seemed quite promising with the Abraham Accords. What about China? Where will it stand in the current conflict? As China expands its influence economically, militarily, and politically, it challenges the established world order dominated by Western powers. Its partnership with Russia and alignment with Iran present a united front against Western values and interests. While China has so far avoided direct military confrontation, its actions in the South China Sea and its assertive stance on various international issues have heightened tensions. China’s rapid rise as a global superpower in the current geopolitical landscape would make it an indirect beneficiary of this conflict not only as a major arms supplier to the region, but also as the disruptor of the proposed India-Middle East-Europe trade corridor. Iran, with its implacable enmity to Israel, in addition to its growing ambitions for regional dominance and nuclear aspirations, remains a wildcard in the global equation. Iran’s strategic alliance with Russia and its support for groups like Hamas adds fuel to the fire of existing conflicts. The prospect of Iran obtaining nuclear weapons could further destabilise the region and prompt military responses from Western powers or Israel. Will Israel use this invasion to attack Iran directly? Given these interconnected geopolitical factors, it is obvious that the world is facing a more precarious situation than ever before. The clash of interests and ideologies between the West and its adversaries is becoming increasingly pronounced. The potential for miscalculation, escalation, or the emergence of a new, unforeseen crisis looms large. While the term “World War III” may conjure images of a global conflict on the scale of the previous world wars, it is important to recognise that modern warfare encompasses economic, cyber, and proxy conflicts, making the landscape even more complex and unpredictable. This is where India’s role may be important. After the super-successful G20 summit, much more is expected of us, at least behind the scenes. Despite the mounting challenges, it is not inevitable that we are destined for World War III. There is still time to pursue diplomatic channels, engage in meaningful dialogue, and seek peaceful solutions to the world’s problems. International institutions, such as the United Nations, could play a central role in mediating disputes and fostering cooperation among nations. In an emergency session of the Security Council, Tor Wennesland, UN Middle East peace envoy, said: “This is a dangerous precipice, and I appeal to all to pull back from the brink.” Now, more than ever, is it time to invoke the motto of “Vasudaiva kutumbakam (one earth, one family, one future)”. But the restoration of peace and security in Israel will be the prerequisites for any forward movement. India is an interested party with over 80,000 Israelis of Indian origin, and some 18,000 citizens currently resident in Israel. The writer is an author, columnist, and professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the Latest News , Trending News , Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook , Twitter and Instagram .