The inevitable has happened. Hamas and Israel are at war again after a week-long fragile truce with the terrorist group’s military wing Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades firing rockets at Tel Aviv. The chances of a permanent ceasefire are remote with neither Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu willing to end the Gaza assault nor Hamas backing down. The longer the fighting continues, the bigger the chances of it becoming a major regional war with a decreasing possibility for US President Joe Biden to maintain peace in the volatile region while supporting America’s decades-old staunchest West Asian ally. Amid the steadfast support for Israel, Biden has a bigger headache which is becoming severe due to his stubbornness. America’s stockpile of arms and ammunition is fast depleting. Still, Biden is not averse to arming Israel by evading, bypassing or changing laws despite the waning public support. A November Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that only 32 per cent of Americans feel that the US should support militarily. Similarly, according to an October Economist/YouGov poll, only 39 per cent think sending weapons to Israel is a good idea. In early November, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives passed a massive $14.5 billion military aid Bill for Israel, including replenishing its Iron Dome and David’s Sling missile defence systems. This was besides the regular $3.8 billion annual military assistance to Israel, the highest among other recipients. From 1946 to 2022, Israel received $146 billion in bilateral assistance and missile defence funding, according to the US Agency for International Development. Israel’s demands drain depleted US inventory America’s weapons stock is already exhausted due to the Ukraine war. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, financial assistance worth $76.8 billion has been provided to Ukraine since the war, including weapons and equipment worth $23.5 billion. A January Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report warned of a potential massive shortage of 155 mm artillery rounds and man-portable air defence Stinger and anti-tank Javelin missiles. At that time, the US produced 2,350 155 mm rounds a month, which can be increased to 40,000 by 2050. By July, Washington had supplied more than 2 million 155 mm rounds to Kyiv. The cluster bombs for Ukraine were a stopgap to buy time for increasing artillery production. The Pentagon is struggling to replenish the current inventory of Stingers with an annual production of only 100 after sending 2,000 of them to Ukraine. The annual production rate of 1,000 Javelins will take 12.5 years to rebuild the inventory. Only 20 High Mobility Artillery Rockets Systems have been provided to Ukraine due to their low numbers. It would take three years to replace them. Citing the CSIS report, Texas Republican senator John Cornyn said on an American Enterprise Institute webcast on 23 January “Clearly, our industrial base is not engaged. The level of weapons production is a glaring problem.” In July, US Air Forces in Europe Commander General James Hecker mentioned the “dangerously low” stock of American weapons during a discussion in London. Now, the American arms industry has reached an inflection point with the Hamas-Israel war. On the face of it, the Biden administration defends its ‘ability’ to arm both Ukraine and Israel. “We can do both and we will do both,” Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin told the media in Brussels in October. However, the situation has turned alarming with Israel’s increasing demand for the same weapons used by Ukraine—155mm rounds, air-launched small-diameter bombs, joint direct attack munitions (JDAMs) and Hellfire missiles. According to a November Bloomberg report, Israel has asked for 57,000 155 mm rounds, 2,000 Hellfires, 20,000 guns, 5,000 night vision devices, 3,000 grenades for exploding bunkers, 400 120 mm rounds and 75 of the new tactical military vehicles. By October-end, 36,000 30 mm rounds, 1,800 bunker-busting bombs, around 3,500 night vision devices, 312 Iron Dome interceptors and two Iron Dome batteries had been supplied to Israel. In fact, a team comprising Pentagon officials and officers from the armed services has been formed to search for ammunition to resupply Israel. Austin might justify America’s involvement in two conflicts, but National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby admitted the shortage in October, “… Right now, we can continue to support Israel and Ukraine. But you know, we’re certainly running out of runway.” Biden wants to arm Israel at all costs Biden is changing or bypassing rules in two ways to arm Israel. The supplemental budget request of a $105 billion-dollar “emergency” weapons funding package sent to Congress reveals his tactics. First, a relatively unknown and strategic depot of American arms and ammunition gives Israel a strategic military advantage over Hamas and Hezbollah. The massive stockpile on Israeli soil can be used without waiting for delivery and the US administration requiring the mandatory 60-day congressional notification. Learning from the 1973 Yom Kippur blitzkrieg, which shocked Israel like the October 7 Hamas attack 50 years later, Ronal Reagan established the War Reserve Stockpile Ammunition-Israel (WRSA-I) in 1984. Managed by the United States European Command, it stores missiles, armoured vehicles and artillery ammunition. Initially established to supply arms and ammunition to US forces immediately in a regional conflict, the depot proved to be a boon for Israel, which used it in the 2006 war with Hezbollah and in the 2014 conflict with Hamas. According to a November 2020 Congressional Research Service report, the George W Bush Administration in 2006 “did not use the emergency authority codified in the Arms Export Control Act, but rather allowed Israel to access the WRSA-I stockpile”, valued at more than $3 billion. In July 2014, Israel used 120 mm tank rounds and 40 mm illumination rounds fired from grenade launchers stored in the depot. In fact, the WRSA-I was used to arm Ukraine with hundreds of thousands of munitions. Washington, DC-based Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), whose highest priority is to replenish and modernise the WRSA-I, states that “preserving” Israel’s qualitative military edge is a crucial goal. JINSA’s concerns aren’t limited to Hamas and Hezbollah. In case of an “unexpected major war with Tehran”, Israel will “need abundant PGMs [precision-guided munitions] to compensate for limited defensive capabilities and prevail”, it said in June. “The stockpile is falling dangerously short of meeting its stated purpose. Of particular concern is the stock of PGMs, especially JDAM tail kits to convert unguided bombs.” California’s Democratic representative Jimmy Panetta has also called for replenishing the WRSA-I stockpile to deter “security threats posed by Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran and other regional malign actors”. Biden wants to remove all limits on Israel’s use of WRSA-I. In the supplemental budget request letter, dated October 20, Office of Management and Budget director Shalanda D Young requested “funding to aid Israel’s defence an unprecedented commitment to Israel’s security”. “This funding will increase security assistance for Israel as it seeks to reestablish territorial security and deterrence and will bolster Israel’s ability to protect itself,” she wrote. In modifying “requirements that apply to certain defence articles that the Department of Defence (DoD) transfers to Israel”, the letter mentions Section 12001 of the Department of Defence Appropriations Act, 2005 as amended (Section 12001). Under Section 12001, the DoD can transfer specified categories of arms and ammunition to Israel in exchange for certain concessions from the country subject to multiple restrictions. One of the restrictions is that defence items are either obsolete or surplus to DoD. Besides, the president must notify the Congress, at least, 30 days before such a transfer. In removing the restrictions, Biden wants to “allow for the transfer of all categories of defence articles” without the requirement that they be obsolete or surplus to DoD. Besides, the DoD will have “greater flexibility in determining the value of the concessions provided in exchange for the transfers”. The request also allows for shortening the 30-day prior notice period in extraordinary circumstances. Biden’s most radical waiver removes the monetary cap of $200 million per fiscal on WRSA-I in Section 514(b) of the Foreign Assistance Act, 1961. According to The Intercept, every waiver would be permanent except for removing the spending cap, which is limited to the 2024 financial year. In a nutshell, any arm or ammunition could be supplied to Israel without accountability and Congressional oversight. The House has already passed legislation removing the restrictions. There is a high probability of the request passing through the Democrat-controlled Senate. Unsurprisingly, the US maintains complete secrecy about the specific details of the arms and ammunition supplied to Israel. Except for the Bloomberg report, nothing is known about the list as dozens of C-17s probably carrying munitions have landed at the Nevatim Air Base, Negev desert, The Intercept reported early last month. During a press briefing on October 24, Pentagon press secretary Air Force Brigadier General Pat Ryder only mentioned “precision-guided munitions, small diameter bombs, artillery, ammunition, Iron Dome interceptors and other critical equipment” as part of the supplies to Israel. Similarly, Kirby said in an 23 October press briefing that the US is “being careful not to quantify or get into too much detail about what they’re [Israel] getting for their operational security purposes, of course”. Second, Biden wants the complete authority to approve “grants” in billions for Israel to spend on “advanced weapons systems” and other “defence articles” under the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) programme. FMF, “vital to supporting US coalition partners in the war on terrorism”, is a critical foreign policy tool for promoting American interests globally by “ensuring that coalition partners and friendly foreign governments are equipped and trained to work toward common security goals and share burdens in joint missions”. Under FMF, grants are provided for acquiring American defence equipment, services and training, promoting US national security. According to the Department of State, “These grants enable key allies and friends to improve their defence capabilities and foster closer military relationships between the US and recipient nations.” One of the FMF objectives is to “assist the militaries of friendly countries and allies to procure US defence articles and services that strengthen legitimate self-defence capabilities and security needs”. Biden has asked for an additional $7.2 billion under FMF to remain available till September 30, 2025, of which $3.5 billion shall be used “for responding to the situation in Israel and related expenses”. The letter states that $3.5 billion may granted to Israel to procure “defence articles and defence services”. Biden wants to waive any congressional notification requirement applicable to these funds if he determines that “extraordinary circumstances exist that impact the national security of the United States”. “Due to Israel’s urgent need for FMF assistance, the request includes the authority to waive congressional notification requirements that would otherwise apply with respect to such assistance,” the letter reads. The amount is designated by the Congress “as an emergency requirement pursuant to Section 251(b)(2)(A) of the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985 as amended”. The White House believes that these additional funds would “bolster Israel’s ability to protect itself against Hamas, a nonstate actor and US-designated foreign terrorist organisation”. Again, Biden wants to arm Israel without notifying the Congress, which will be clueless about the specifications of arms and ammunition supplied to Israel. Aware that the war might continue for months, Biden wants funds flowing to Israel till, at least, September 2025. A day before fighting resumed, Netanyahu said, “Over the past few days, I’ve been hearing this question: will Israel go back to fighting after maximising this phase of returning our hostages? So, my answer is unequivocal. Yes.” In October-end, Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant told the media that the ground offensive against Hamas could last for months. Even during the short truce, he said that fighting would resume with “intensity” for, at least, two more months. Netanyahu’s senior adviser Mark Regev told CNN on Thursday that if Hamas fails to release 10 hostages daily, “of course, the fighting can be resumed”. The US has provided Israel $158 billion in bilateral assistance and missile defence funding as of March 2023. When the two countries signed their third 10-year MoU in 2016 for $38 billion in military aid, one of the conditions was that Israel wouldn’t seek additional funds from Congress beyond the amount granted annually in the package. Israel is not only demanding more US weapons to wipe out Hamas, Biden also has dug his heels into bolstering military aid even by bypassing laws, accountability and Congressional oversight. The writer is a freelance journalist with two decades of experience and comments primarily on foreign affairs. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views._ Read all the Latest News , Trending News , Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram._
Already drained by the Ukraine war, the American arms industry has now reached an inflection point with the Hamas-Israel war
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