New Great Game in Africa: How Niger crisis shows world is in a most tumultuous phase of geopolitics

Editor’s note: This piece is the final part of a two-part series on the Niger crisis.

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In Part one of this article was on what is going on in Africa, in the context of the recent coup in Niger and the war in Ukraine, I had looked at Africa’s colonial and post-colonial history with the West, mainly with France and the US. The Western colonists never really left Africa. So it is hardly surprising that as the 21st century version of the Great Game is played out in the continent, many Africans are suspicious of the West, and Russia and China have found fertile ground to spread their influence. The Russian Gambit The Soviet Union had supported liberation struggles across Africa and post their independence, had built strong ties with some of these young countries through aid in cash and kind. Of course, the Soviets did not do it out of innate altruism. Their Africa policy was a strategy it used in the Cold War being fought all over the planet. After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Russia spent years struggling to get its house back in order and had little time for faraway Africa. But about two decades ago, once he had established himself as the unchallengeable supreme leader, Vladimir Putin turned his gaze south-west. He craved to restore to Russia the global great power status that his country had once enjoyed. He used generous aid in cash and kind and leveraged African memories of Western colonialism. In a few cases where this did not work, he got governments overthrown, just as the West had been doing. Today, Russia is Africa’s largest arms supplier, accounting for 44 per cent of all arms bought by the continent between 2017 and 2021. These are just the official government figures. Because Putin has not stopped with selling weapons. Russia’s lethal human force is present on the ground across west and central Africa, either officially or via its mercenary army the Wagner Group, helping favoured governments fight insurgencies and assisting military coups where it suits Russia—for instance in Mali and Burkina Faso, which stand behind the new regime in Niger. Putin has been helped by the West’s botched military missions to end jihadi terrorism in Africa. The violence has in fact been escalating. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was always a frequent visitor to Africa and he has stepped up the frequency since the Ukraine war began. Russia is also pushing nuclear technology in the continent to expand its influence. It is building a state-of-the art nuclear plant in Egypt that will have four reactors at a project cost of $28.75 billion. It has signed memoranda of understanding or agreements with several other countries. In fact, it has found more potential buyers after the war in Ukraine introduced a heavy dose of uncertainty in world energy markets at a time when demand for electricity in Africa is rising sharply. It is obvious from Africa’s stance on the war that Putin has been able to achieve at least some of his aims. Not a single African nation has joined the West’s sanctions against Russia and many of them have refused to support United Nations resolutions condemning Russia. Chinese Checkers China aims to become the world’s leading superpower by 2049. As Xi Jinping articulated the vision at the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in October last year—by mid-century, China wants to “lead the world in terms of composite national strength and international influence”. Africa, with its extraordinary natural wealth, is key to achieving that target. Unlike the US and Russia, China has neither used its military strength nor is there any proof that it has intervened in the domestic politics of any African country. Instead, it has used its economic power to woo the continent. It is already Africa’s largest trading partner—in 2021, China-Africa trade was worth $254 billion, more than thrice the value of US-Africa trade. Beijing has pursued its Belt and Road Initiative aggressively in Africa. Its stated purpose is to help the continent bridge the massive infrastructure gap it faces. According to the US Department of Defence, one out of every three major infrastructure projects in Africa is now built by Chinese state-owned enterprises, and one out of every five is financed by a Chinese bank. Time will tell whether this will lead some African countries into a debt trap like it happened with Sri Lanka, but it is clear that China reaps huge benefits from these projects. If an expensive project built with cheap loans from China fails, and the country cannot pay back the loans, China takes control of the assets, which gives it great strategic advantage. If the project turns out to be profitable, China gains from lucrative maintenance contracts that were part of the deal, which may run for up to 99 years. In either case, Beijing gets access to Africa’s mineral wealth, especially uranium and rare metals which could play an extremely crucial role in coming years. China has faced allegations of debt-trap diplomacy, that it is interested only in Africa’s natural resources, that it wants to buy up as much of Africa’s arable land as it can, that it employs Chinese rather than local labour, and that Chinese companies provide sub-standard services and products, undersell and weaken local competitors. China rejects all these charges and a majority of Africans appear to have a positive view of Beijing. A 2020 survey by the research network Afrobarometer across 18 countries found that more people saw China’s “economic and political influence” as positive, ahead of the US, Russia and United Nations agencies. After all, they can see that roads and bridges are being built and there is a sense that the West-led model of development, based on fostering democratic institutions and free market economic policies, did not help them much. And Beijing stays absolutely mum on political issues in Africa other than motherhood statements that peace should prevail and all humanity should work towards a harmonious global order. What is unsaid, obviously, is that it should be in harmony with Chinese characteristics. China has also eagerly participated in United Nations peacekeeping missions in Africa, with funds and troops. Between 1989 and 2020, over 40,000 Chinese peacekeepers served on 24 UN missions, mainly in Africa, far more than the combined contribution of personnel by the other four permanent members on the UN Security Council—the US, Russia, France and Britain. The number for Russia, of course, does not include its Wagner Group “peacekeepers”. Ukraine, Geopolitics and Gas The war in Ukraine speeded events up in Africa. After Russia cut its natural gas supplies to European Union countries and then mysterious explosions crippled the giant Nord Stream pipelines, Europe scrambled to find alternate sources. Among the projects it has tried to fast track is the Trans-Saharan gas pipeline. The project had made very slow progress over the last two decades, but in June last year, energy ministers from Algeria, Nigeria and Niger met and agreed to accelerate the work. When completed, the pipeline is expected to carry 30 billion cubic metres of gas per year from the three countries to Europe. With a length of 4,128 km, the pipeline will link Warri in Nigeria to the Hassi R’Mel gas hub in Algeria, passing through Niger. Gas is expected to start flowing to Europe by the end of the year. But the Niger coup puts the project in jeopardy. The new Putin-backed regime will hardly be interested in making life easier for Europe, which is locked in a proxy war with Russia with no end in sight yet. The government has already announced that it will slash exports of uranium and other commodities to France. This gas supply is vital to the West, where citizens and industries are already reeling under energy price hikes. Many European leaders have seen their popularity plummeting and would certainly be worried about losing the next election. According to the most recent polls, only 31 per cent of Germans approve of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s job performance, and the figure for French president Emmanuel Macron is 33 per cent, though it has risen from an all-time low of 26 per cent in April. In Britain, 65 per cent have an unfavourable view of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Yet, all of them, under US guidance, have pushed themselves into a position on the Ukrainian war from which it will be very hard to step back. By flatly refusing any negotiated settlement with Russia, they have left themselves no room to manoeuvre and no incentive for Putin to not attack the West wherever he can and in whichever manner he can. The uncertainty over the Trans-Sahara gas pipeline only adds to their problems. Knife Edge Right now, Africa sits on the edge of a knife as the latest theatre in a global conflict, which is what the Ukraine war essentially is—a war that could reshape geopolitical power equations. At a local level, across Africa, a volatile political situation will enthuse the jihadists to push their infernal agenda further. At the same time, if the West relies on its same old strategy of financial blackmail and military force—something that has not worked so well in the past, it will only make the other side even more determined to not yield. Both sides will try to draw in as many countries as possible into the conflict that can lead to an endless war in Africa, which is the last thing the world needs. Some Cassandras have been warning for some time that the Ukraine war could lead to World War Three and suddenly they don’t seem like deluded doomsayers any more. The war has already made it amply clear to anyone who has bothered to pay attention that the West considers itself to be morally superior to the rest of humanity, an assumption that says more about its historical fantasies than about anything else. Especially when much of the West is staring at economic decline and deep social turmoil. Latest official data indicate that the Chinese economy may be struggling on many fronts. There is also the growing apprehension that China may try to distract its citizens from their economic troubles by attacking Taiwan. That could trigger a military response from the US-led West. No one can tell how it all will turn out, but right now, the world does appear to be a far more dangerous place than one would have imagined even two years ago. India will need to play its cards with extreme care and caution. The writer is a former editor of Financial Express_, and founder-editor of_ Open and Swarajya magazines. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views._   Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook ,  Twitter  and  Instagram .