New friendship with China is Moscow's biggest prize of the year

Political analysts, astrologers and philosophers of Russia agree on one point: the nation was lucky to draw the biggest prize of 2022, namely a new kind of alliance, or friendship, with China. It’s a matter of finding yourself on the right side of history, due to luck, coincidence and wise decisions of the past. Some people say that China is our biggest victory in the Ukrainian war, a victory which will stay with us regardless of the war’s outcome. “Can you imagine our country being a NATO member today, thrown against China, with a pro-Western leader at the top, and can you imagine what kind of daily life we would all have to lead as a result?” asked a speaker at one of the numerous conferences, marking the year-end. And he is right, such development looked real at the start of the 90s. Only at the end of the decade, Moscow began to forge new ties with Beijing, which bore fruits today. China’s support was pledged on the eve of the military operation on 24 February. It’s very possible that, if not for that support, Moscow might have hesitated before taking action. And then all the now well-known Western intentions might have been realised. Namely, we would have witnessed a massive offensive of about 100,000 Ukrainian troops, which had been planned for 6-8 March, according to intelligence and confirmed by numerous documents captured by our troops during their drive to the West. The Chinese leaders have stated on several occasions that the Ukrainian conflict has deep historical roots, so other nations should comprehend these realities, when clamouring for peace negotiations, and not fan the flames. At the same time, it was declared that Beijing was going to go on trading with Russia “as usual”. Thus the sanctions war had been lost by the West. And that sanctions war, after all, was the main goal of the West, while Ukraine was only a tool for it. But, as we see it now, there’s nothing “usual” about China-Russia trade. When its volume goes up by 25-30 per cent, as the preliminary 2022 data shows, that’s a new reality. The biggest raise was in foodstuffs and agricultural items, mostly China’s imports. That rose by 36 per cent. But, for the outside world, gas became a real sensation. Russia rapidly became China’s No. 2 supplier of gas exceeding the contracted amount by 18 per cent. The export of gas that went in the Western direction tumbled by 46 per cent, but its exports to the East went up by approximately the same volumes. In the meantime, the Western sanctions drove the prices up, and Russia’s current trade account has doubled its surplus, even while exporting fewer volumes. But if you look closer at the shape of the Russo-Chinese alliance, you see problems there. And the first of these is China’s unease about the obvious result of the war in Ukraine, namely the ongoing self-destruction of Europe. Can you imagine England, where the price of energy went up about ten times, putting industries to a stop? And can you imagine Germany, where the current unthinkable energy price is expected to be doubled in 2023 after the devastation of 2022? European industries are running away to US and Asia. The huge consumer market for Chinese goods is simply disappearing. That’s not what China wants. If you look at China’s statements about the aims of its foreign policy, they are not about Beijing wanting the destruction of the West. China says that it needs to find the right balance in relations with the US, promote the development of business with Europe, as well as coordinate with Russia. And that formulae (belonging to the former foreign minister Wang Yi) fit China’s actual steps in diplomacy. That’s why our friends across the border may demonstrate a full understanding of Russia’s military activities, but in reality, China would like Moscow to sign peace in Europe and de-escalate the global tension. So, officially, China’s position in that conflict is supposed to be called neutrality. The second problem for Moscow is the need for re-balancing relations with the whole of Asia. We are in for further blossoming of our alliance with China, including its military aspect, says Alexei Maslov, the Director of Moscow University’s Asia and Africa college. But, he adds, that should not affect ties with India and other Asian powers. It would be realistic to expect Moscow’s efforts in that direction in 2023. One should never forget the human aspect of this new friendship with China. The Russian public has its own peculiarities, including the taste for open and strong statements from allies. Neutrality is all very well, but we are a nation hungry for encouragement from our friends. And encouragement is what we are getting from China, with its numerous pro-Russian media articles quoted here almost every week. The surge of mutual trade is certainly warming the feelings from our side. But what really improved the atmosphere, was, paradoxically, China’s COVID predicament. Statements from Beijing may go on saying that “ optimized COVID-19 strategy is a planned, science-based approach”. But in reality every Russian knows very well that the glorious China leadership has seriously bungled its lockdown-mask-mandate policy, almost driving the society to ruin, while our approach was drastically different, something like Swedish minimalism in medical repressions. So, first, we have noted that our new alliance with China did not imply even the slightest Chinese pressure to follow its glorious example. Now we know for sure that our neighbour is not inclined to impose its norms and standards on others. We shuddered while looking at these masked human hordes streamlined into COVID-19 camps, and we inevitably thought – is that the example for Russia to follow? Now we know it’s not. And, second, it was high time for China and the Chinese to fall from their high horse and look less impeccable and self-assured, showing some weakness and fallibility. That gives us a chance to slap a Chinese friend on the shoulder, saying something like “you live and you learn”. The author is a columnist for the Russian State agency website ria.ru, as well as for other publications. Views expressed are personal. Read all the Latest News, Trending News, Cricket News, Bollywood News, India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.