Nepal’s Gen Z protests have more to them than meets the eye

It’s nothing like anything that South Asia has known. It’s more so in Nepal, where a palace coup led to an unsuspecting ‘royal massacre’ first, leading to a system change not long thereafter. In a country where a decade-long, well-entrenched Maoist militancy could not succeed, a near-overnight street protest, purportedly triggered by the Communist-led government of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli banning all non-Chinese social media sites, has done it now. It was stated that Chinese TikTok accepted the government’s social media regulations, which was the reason why it was not targeted.

But targeted by the mob frenzy were the Prime Minister, his other ministers, the Parliament building and the Supreme Court. Many of them were beaten black and blue before the camera; the Parliament building and the Supreme Court were gutted by arsonists, and the wife of a former prime minister was burnt alive when their house was burnt down when she was still inside.

Compared to the gory street violence that took over neighbouring Bangladesh, and not just the capital Dhaka, around this time last year, the fire and fury in physical terms was much less in Nepal. But the real fire in the belly of the protestors, we are told, was as much. Gen Z, we are told, was getting increasingly frustrated by the elitist status quo that was still managing power politics and occupying power centres in every which way. The rest of them all had had enough, and as if the social media ban was a trigger, they reacted violently and unexpectedly.

Or, that is the narrative. But was it the only reason? From the days of the ‘Arab Spring’ and ‘Orange Revolution’ outside South Asia, such a narrative has been built around overnight mass protests that invariably turned unprecedentedly violent and toppled elected governments, but only after taking a heavy human toll, especially of men in power and other elite sections of socio-political leadership.

Algorithms and AI

The common refrain, before all that, used to be that leftist militants and protestors alone were capable of such ruthless violence and arson, and also brutal killings. But the Arab Spring changed all that, where the traditional left militancy got replaced by restless urban youth, all across. There was some truth in it, yes, but no one has ever sat down to find the whole truth and nothing but the truth. The required tools were unavailable outside the affected nation or region.

But now after Nepal, social media discourse centers around algorithms evaluating the mood and setting the next target nation—but to what end other than spreading political instability? This has been followed up with references to AI tools for triggering mass protests of the kind, and not just as a communication tool. Translated, it means the public mood in any democracy can be manipulated, especially on election eve, just as it can be done in autocracies, real and perceived, for overthrowing them through mass movements.

Some such social media debates are confined to South Asia, where, one after the other, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and now Nepal have witnessed unpredictable mass unrest that has overthrown elected governments relatively effortlessly. What is to be noticed is the time span required to effect the same and the kind of violence involved.

It took Sri Lanka a few weeks, followed by Bangladesh a few less, and Nepal the least. The level of street violence was also relative, though the death toll in action by security forces was higher in Bangladesh, where ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina would not yield until the armed forces asked her to quit and made good her escape.

Was President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s fate of being forced to resign and flee to the Maldives and then Thailand a lesson for Sheikh Hasina, even if after a time? And was Sheikh Hasina’s fate, all the more so, the number of cruel deaths, especially of her supporters and their family members all across the country, for days and weeks after her exit, a lesson for Nepal’s Sharma Oli and team? Or, was it also the inspiration for Nepal’s street protesters, who made street violence as much a part of their pent-up frustration and immediate demands?

Less violent but…

Looking back, Sri Lanka’s power transition in 2022 was less violent and more predictable after a time, even if it was equally unconstitutional. More importantly, the present-day JVP rulers under President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, whose hidden hand was seen behind the ‘Aragalaya’ (Struggle) protests that led to leadership change and who was the ultimate beneficiary of the same, were more democratic than counterparts elsewhere.

The pent-up feelings against the rulers of the day, and also the larger political elite since the nation’s independence in 1948, were genuine. So what began as a restricted display of urban middle-class disenchantment, with women, and also men, lining up on either side of their respective streets, post-breakfast or pre-lunch, was also real.

What was surreal at that time was the protestors first occupying the Galle Face Green beach space in the capital, Colombo, when they grew in numbers after laying a peaceful siege on the President’s Old Secretariat at one end. Never once did this group of protestors try to violate the cordon laid by the security forces to curtail them.

At the same time, there were protestors, mainly those from outside the city, who occupied the President’s official residence and made a mockery of it all. There was even a later-day attempt to take over the Parliament building, which was effectively thwarted by the security forces.

Yet, to date, nothing has been done about the well-coordinated arson attacks on the private properties of at least 80 ruling party leaders, starting with President Gota, outgoing Prime Minister and former President Mahinda Rajapaksa and their family members, across the Sinhala South, all in less than two hours, beginning at sunset one evening.

To date, the police investigations into the arson attack have not been completed, or so it seems. Nor has the previous government of President Ranil Wickremesinghe released the findings of a three-member veterans’ probe into the reasons behind the then Chief of Army Staff, Gen Shavendra Silva’s refusal to take orders from President Gota, the Supreme Commander, or even take his telephone calls.

Democratic coup

Now after Nepal, there is a needle of suspicion hanging over other South Asian nations. Of course, Pakistan has been a permanent case for a long time. The nation’s economic crisis, coupled with the post-Partition plight of externalising their domestic agenda, centred on India, has done enough damage to their nationhood. The debate has been ongoing for long, both within the country and outside, that Pakistan’s nationhood will not be diluted or compromised, come what may.

As much as the armed forces’ strength and ‘commitment’ to the Pakistani nation, there is also the inherent belief that ordinary Pakistanis would stand by the Pakistani nation even more than their defending the Pakistani state structure or select governments, or even the armed forces, which have been seen as manipulators all along.

That way only Bhutan and Maldives are on the list for a sudden spurt of Gen Z frustrations on their streets. Of the two, already Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu is facing massive charges of being anti-democratic and taking the nation back to pre-2008 autocracy, but this time in a democratic garb. The credibility of the political Opposition is still tottering after their governmental behaviour since. They too are elitist, as elsewhere in South Asia, barring possibly India, where new generation leaders have been coming up over the past decades but have also created a new class of elites with self-proclaimed entitlements.

Barring India, the economy is still tottering in the Maldives especially; there are no jobs for the youth. The latter, after an A-Level pass, would accept only a managerial position in the private sector or an equivalent position in the government of State-Owned Enterprises (SoEs). So, expat workers, who form nearly a fifth of the nation’s resident population, get the jobs and earn incomes that they repatriate to their homes, mainly in Bangladesh.

The question arises: if the urban middle-class moderate democrats are upset with the Muizzu leadership’s democratic credentials and economic management and still may be reluctant to take to the streets, who could be in the forefront, especially if someone from outside is planning yet another ‘democratic coup’ of the Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal kind? Any radical group or groups, as in Bangladesh last year, though for now, they are seen as supporting the current leadership?

Of course, it can be argued that the much-overlooked or equally ignored post-Covid economic crisis is the real cause for the sudden spurt of frustrated youth energy that is reportedly challenging the status quo in every one of the affected nations. If so, any backdated link to ‘Arab Spring’ and ‘Orange Revolution’, for instance, should be discounted, as they came long before the global Covid lockdown. But the larger cause of youth frustration taking a violent turn on the streets was common to all.

Take, for instance, the ongoing street protests in France, which has already seen the forced resignation of the Prime Minister and is gunning for President Macron? Of course, the Japanese Prime Minister also quit. In both cases, too, the issues were the same as those in Nepal, all of it happening in a couple of days. The uncharitable one may see an ‘external factor’ in France, as the nation is seen as looking at a multipolar world where Paris, too, would have its sphere of influence, building on its colonial possessions and reach from the past.

Deep state, who?

This takes us to a more pertinent question that has come back into geopolitical discourses after the Nixon era in the US – or so it seems. The talk of the American ‘Deep State’ topping governments not through political or military coups of the traditional kind, but through ‘democratic coups’ of the mass-protest kind has been gaining credence and credibility, especially over three years now.

Yes, the Americans were being blamed for the ‘Arab Spring’ and ‘Orange Revolution’, but the shocking way protestors humiliated Libya’s Col Gaddafi after killing him possibly silenced all sections, at least for a time, until Sri Lanka’s ‘Aragalaya’ spurted out in 2022. Earlier, after losing the 2015 presidential poll, incumbent Mahinda Rajapaksa went on record that ‘Western agencies’ worked on ‘regime change’. During Aragalaya likewise, there were reports of present-day President Anura Kumara Dissanayake visiting the US Embassy in Colombo and staying in touch with American officials—a sure ‘No’ for the ideologically left party until then.

Later, after the Bangladesh developments last year, there were open criticisms of the US being behind the toppling of Sheikh Hasina. Reports claimed how the present Chief Administrator, Nobel Laureate Mohammed Yunus, already an octogenarian, was an ‘American puppet’, foisted on the unsuspecting nation that was otherwise angry with the Hasina regime.

There is a pattern to it all, going beyond the telescoping of time from Sri Lanka to Bangladesh to Nepal—say, from two months to two weeks to two days. Next, will it be just two hours? If so, which South Asian nation could be the target, if you really believe in the American ‘Deep State’ and all? If so, it has to be a military coup. If you happen to recall the US and President Trump getting chummy with Pakistan’s army chief, self-styled Field Marshal Asim Munir, your guess is as good as mine.

What now?

There are those who post facto claim that Anna Hazare’s ‘anti-corruption movement’ in 2011 in the country and the explosion of youth power on Delhi streets over the ‘Nirbhaya killing’ were all made of the same stuff, where students sort of took the lead in what was showcased as pro-democracy protests and voices.

Once the likes of Arvind Kejriwal and Kiran Bedi politically blossomed out of the Anna Hazare movement, leaving the old man dejected, despondent and being used, media columns openly spoke about an ‘American involvement’ in democratic regime change in India.

Whatever that may be, barring Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and now Nepal, faceless student groups have become the final arbiter of the nation’s precarious future. In both countries, the armed forces stepped in to fill the political vacuum that was created by fast-tracked developments that ended in regime change of a non-democratic, if not outright anti-democratic, kind. Only in Sri Lanka, despite the fact that youth groups were in the forefront of the Aragalaya protests, whoever was behind it, the political class, despite all their faults, never gave up the initiative.

Maybe, it also had to do with the absence of outright violence against the political class, as in Bangladesh and Nepal. In Sri Lanka, much of the violence, or rather arson, was confined to a single evening, a single episode, followed by another when arsonists burnt down the private residence of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, whom Parliament later elected as President, following relevant constitutional provisions. Does it mean that greater violence and greater participation of student groups in government formation in Bangladesh and Nepal were just not accidental or even inspirational, and there was more to them than the naked eye could see or visualise?

N Sathiya Moorthy, veteran journalist and author, is a Chennai-based policy analyst & political commentator. The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.