Nawaz Sharif's anticipated return sparks political buzz, but uncertainty looms in the months ahead

Former prime minister and head of the Pakistan Muslim League (N) is due to return to the country on 21 October. He has been in London for the past four years. He was allowed to go abroad by the courts on medical grounds initially for a period of four weeks. At that stage, he was out on parole while imprisoned in a criminal case in which he was convicted. There are also other cases against him. Now his lawyers are trying to secure bail so that he is not taken to prison on arrival. His party wishes to have a grand function at the Minar-e-Pakistan on the occasion of his return. The clear object is to use his return to create a major impact on Pakistan’s politics and especially to energise PML(N) cadres. Nawaz Sharif’s coming back has to be seen in the context of the Pakistan Election Commission’s decision to hold general elections is January though it has not announced any dates as yet. Under the constitution the elections should have been held by November but the Commission said the de-limitation exercise necessitated a delay. Pakistani political parties are gearing up for the elections. The Peoples Democratic Movement which formed the Shehbaz Sharif government in April 2022 after the ouster of prime minister Imran Khan has broken up. Its principal parties—the PML(N), the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s JUI (F) have gone their different ways. While there is pressure on the Commission not to delay elections beyond January—the PPP wanted it earlier than January – a further postponement cannot be ruled out. The fundamental fact of Pakistan’s contemporary national life is that army chief General Asim Munir and former Prime Minister Imran Khan are at daggers drawn. This is particularly so after the unprecedented 9 May anti-army demonstrations in the wake of Khan’s arrest. There is no doubt that Munir used them to cement his position within the army by taking decisive action against officers he considered to be sympathetic to Khan. He also used these demonstrations to diminish Khan’s sympathisers and supporters but it is not known how much support continues for Khan in Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa provinces. Hence, Munir and the Pakistan opposition parties are both tarnishing his image and seeking to make sure that he continues to remain in jail and is also convicted so that he cannot contest elections. All this means that, if by January, Munir is certain that Khan and his party the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) cannot be successful in the elections then the elections will be held that month. Otherwise, reasons may be found for a further delay. Presently, Pakistan is under an interim government led by Anwaar Kakar. This is in accordance with its constitution which mandates that national elections are to be held under an interim government. This governmental set up is really under the army’s control. It is exceeding its constitutionally mandated powers taking decisions which would normally be within the jurisdiction of an elected government. Thus, it has decided that it will send back undocumented Afghan refugees. This decision has major implications for Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan and its internal security. Even an elected government would take such a decision only on the army’s urging it to do so. But it would have had the fig leaf of being constitutionally competent to do so. That is not so in this case. The Taliban government has publicly protested the Pakistan decision. It is alleged that Pakistan is trying to put the blame on Afghanistan of what is essentially its domestic problem. In any event, there are more than a million Afghan illegals in Pakistan. Many of them are deeply embedded in Pakistani society, especially in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province. It will be very difficult for the Pakistani authorities to send them back to Afghanistan. The Pakistanis may be able to put some pressure on the Taliban to control the TTP but this too may not really work for the Afghan Taliban to know how to play the Pakistan system well. Another indication that the caretaker government is going far beyond its constitutional authority is shown by the current prime minister’s attendance at the 3rd edition of the Belt and Road Forum organized by China on 17-18 October. The Chinese are treating his participation as that of a leader with full powers. He is due to meet the Chinese leadership including President Xi Jinping. Reports indicate that 18 MOUs will be signed during his trip. The focus will be on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and its upgradation. The two countries will also examine the steps needed for the fructification of the Gwadar Port project which, of course, has major implications for India. Significantly, Kakar will visit Xinjiang. Pakistan has overlooked the atrocities which the Chinese communist party has visited upon the Uighur Muslims. Kakar will no doubt parrot the Chinese line on this issue during his Xinjiang visit. Prior to leaving for Beijing Kakar tweeted “Looking forward to strengthening ties, engaging in dialogues, forging new partnerships and promoting regional connectivity for a brighter future”. This is not how a caretaker prime minister approaches his duties. Clearly, the army has backed him to act as a regular leader and he is doing just that. This also indicates that Munir will want the caretaker setup to continue till Imran Khan’s political prospects are eliminated. Thus, while Nawaz Sharif’s return will give an impetus to the political processes and his actions will be closely watched it is not certain how precisely events will unfold in the next couple of months. Certainly, Nawaz Sharif would have received some indications of non-harassment from the army and the judiciary, but it remains to be seen how all this will be actually translated on the ground. Meanwhile, the country’s economic situation continues to be in great difficulty. There is no indication that the Pakistani elites and the army have realised that the present situation will enable them to keep the economy on and off the ventilator but it cannot put it on the path of recovery. And, finally, to fill its cup of woe was its decisive defeat by the Indian cricket team in Ahmedabad. That put Pakistanis deeper into despair! The writer is a former Indian diplomat who served as India’s Ambassador to Afghanistan and Myanmar, and as secretary, the Ministry of External Affairs. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. 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