Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan: A fragile economy, an interfering army and politics of turmoil await the former PM

Nawaz Sharif is back and full of fire even at 73. His first speech at the Minar-e-Pakistan in Lahore was quite astonishing in some respects even as he quietly avoided the issues he had been fulminating about in London. It seems a bargain has been made with multiple actors, not just the army. All of this is interesting not because a politician has come back to his country, but because Pakistan itself has changed almost beyond all recognition in terms of the drivers that are propelling it. First, the fact that Sharif was able to return on the say-so of the army is obvious to all. The army-led National Accountability Bureau did not oppose the Islamabad High Court’s decision to provide protective bail for Sharif on two of the most critical cases: one involving the acquisition of no less than four flats in London, for which the family was unable to account and another concerning the source of funds to set up Al-Azizia Steel Mills and Hill Metal Establishment (HME) in Saudi Arabia. A third arrest warrant was also suspended in the Toshakhana case (where Imran was caught on shaky ground). The point is that there is a clutch of other cases, including one on a sugar mill, all of which means that the former premier is shackled by the leg with no certainty that he will even be allowed to compete. That is point one. Second, look at the massive crowds that greeted him. That should at all events prove that the party apparatus is alive and well on the ground. And that the grand old party has its funds intact. This is South Asia. Don’t run away with the idea that he is a popular phenomenon that will translate automatically into votes. The last Gallup poll shows him trailing at 35 per cent, way behind Imran Khan at 60 per cent. But the latter has pulled down the army more than any leader alive or dead; and that section of the population, which is the educated middle class and the youth, are unlikely to drift to Sharif for a decisive win. That means he’s going to need a coalition partner. Look who’s a rung above him in the popularity polls. Saad Rizvi, a figure of the religious right who gained prominence on the blasphemy issue and serves as the political representative of the Barelvi community among the masses. Abdul Basit analyses his rise due to repeated surrenders by the parties in power, his ability to broaden his base to include inflation and food shortages and his involvement in relief activities – for which he seems to have no lack of money – and crucially, in mobilising the Barelvi vote due to the frequent terrorist attacks against it. In recent days, TLP (Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan) has drawn massive crowds in pro-Palestine protests, further enhancing its popularity. It may be recalled that Sharif has teamed up with the religious right before, but TLP has been used by the army against Nawaz in the past, - with a video showing a senior military official distributing money to the protesters going viral. True, politicians often form alliances with unlikely partners, but any collaboration with a radical group would further limit his room for manoeuvre, a situation that would be completely favourable for the army. That’s point two. Then there’s the content of his speech. Not a word against the army, which is unsurprising. Even a toddler would know that ‘hybrid’ is out of the window, and the army is in the chair, and there it will stay. Therefore, only oblique references to why he was removed from power – including the very real fact that the only proven charge against him was on accepting undeclared pay from his son’s firm – and a clear statement that he has not come for revenge. There was pathos in his cry that he was not allowed to visit his dying wife. The most surprising thing was the call to repair relations with India noting without exaggeration, that even Bangladesh, once part of Pakistan, was far ahead in economic terms. The obvious fact is that Pakistan cannot in truth, remain in a state of confrontation with India, and expect to get investments, not even from ‘brotherly’ countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE both of whom have already invest ed to an extent in the country in recent months. But the Saudis have promised some $25 billion in investments. Not surprising therefore that Sharif went first to Saudi Arabia and UAE before arriving in Pakistan. Prince Mohammad Bin Sultan for one, is a shrewd businessman looking to diversify away from fossil fuels. Wars, and such like have no place in his scheme of things, or that of the others in the Muslim world, or even China. The message overall to Pakistan seems to be to get its act together, or else. The trouble is that this is a terrible time to be prime minister.  With a sinking economy – around $7.3 trillion in debt servicing in FY24, which is more than 50 per cent of the budget – there are few choices ahead. Gas prices are due to go up 193 per cent, which will very likely create popular unrest. Combine this with a 58 million plus youth bulge (about 13 per cent of the total population) that has been fed with tales of a ‘corrupt’ politician and the benign army. It is no accident that 88 per cent of those polled, approve of the army. All of that makes for a terrible combination for Nawaz, especially since he is likely to continue to be in the back seat for a while, with brother Shahbaz playing proxy, and balancing unlikely allies, and with a dozen cases hanging fire, there is only trouble ahead. Here’s the key aspect though. The only thing he can deliver, and quickly, with little cost, is to open up trade with India. That will bring down inflation and potentially, provide a huge source of income in cross-border trade across Afghanistan, Central Asia and beyond. That is what will ultimately sell, not Sharif’s personal tragedies. As inflation is likely to spiral even further, no one is going to even remember. Therefore the lesson is this. Every disaster carries an opportunity. And ironically Pakistan’s near collapse could be the driver for a revolutionary turnaround, not just in the economy, but in how Pakistan positions itself in the world. That might well be Sharif’s lasting legacy for his country, provided the khakis see sense. Already the army chief is making plans for a ‘cutting edge’ air force even while overseeing Exercise Indus Shield that incorporates 14 nations including China, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and UAE. So no, there’s no evidence of that yet. Which is what will make India pause. First the evidence, then the direction. The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. She tweets @kartha_tara. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s_ views. Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook ,  Twitter  and  Instagram .