Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: Pawns in Eurasian great game, Armenia and Azerbaijan must choose peace, not war

As this is being written, over 78,300 people, above 65 per cent of Nagorno-Karabakh’s total population of 120,000, have fled to Armenia. Azerbaijan has also arrested a former top official of Nagorno-Karabakh, Ruben Vardanyan, as he tried to escape the enclave to Armenia. Vardanyan, a billionaire banker and philanthropist, headed Karabakh’s separatist government between November 2022 and February 2023. Nagorno-Karabakh, a recognised part of Azerbaijan, but controlled, until recently, by the ethnic Armenian forces for the last three decades, has been facing fresh violence ever since Azerbaijan successfully blocked a key entrance to the enclave in December 2022. Even as sources told AFP, Azerbaijan intends to apply an amnesty to Armenian fighters who laid their arms, but those who have committed “war crimes” must be handed over to them. Amid all these, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has warned that “ethnic cleansing” is under way in the region. However, Azerbaijan has said that it wants to “re-integrate” the ethnic Armenian as “equal citizens”. Nagorno-Karabakh is a textbook example of how beautiful lands have a horrible destiny, located in the South Caucasus, with terrain mostly consisting of mountains and forests, the land is paying the price of its geostrategic importance. The conflict is just another part of the “Eurasian great game” played by the West, Russia and aspirational powers like Turkey, all for selfish power-centric and hegemonic motives and seldom in the actual interests of the natives. The region has a majority Armenian population but a substantial minority of Azeri people. For most of the 19th century, it was ruled by the Russian Empire, which, when the empire fell in 1918, led to the creation of two nations—Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, just a few years later, in 1921, the Soviets captured the entire Caucus, and both countries were made Republics within the Union, and the Nagorno-Karabakh region was made a semi-autonomous region within Azerbaijan despite having Armenians in the ethnic majority. Seeds of the conflict were sown, there were frequent demand by the Armenian population of the region to join the Armenian republic which were ignored by the Union, but as Gorbachev brought his policy of Glasnost — “Openness” not only gave the people “a freedom to create but also to hate”, and as the Soviet Union collapsed, expectedly, the fault lines resurfaced, both the sides declared their independence and the war began, which continued for three years, till 1994, until Armenia captured the Nagorno-Karabakh region and a ceasefire agreement was signed. The region which had declared itself to be the autonomous region at the beginning of this war, is yet officially recognised part of Azerbaijan. This led to the displacement of the Azeri population from the area. Now on one hand, Azerbaijan, still could not accept the humiliation of defeat, while Armenia kept on repopulating Azeri towns with Armenian population on the other, with Armenian leader calling for official unity with the region. In 2016, both the parties fought a four-day war. Meanwhile, Turkey, a power in the region, has been dreaming big, big enough to reclaim its lost leadership of the Islamic world. Turkey is a country with whom the Azeri people have civilisational ties. Turkey has been supplying Azerbaijan with weapons and strategic support, so much so that the Azerbaijani offensive into the region in September 2020 seems to be well-planned. The resultant was a Russia brokered treaty almost six weeks later on 9-10 November, under which redrawing the map happened, Azerbaijan gained control of numerous adjacent territories as well as the vital city of Shusha in Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia was compelled to accept these territorial losses and consent to hand over the three remaining nearby territories to Azerbaijan by early December. The Russian presence with two thousand strong peacekeeping forces was expected to keep Armenia at bay as the Armenian economy was substantially dependent on Russia. But Azerbaijan was also determined to take control of the entire Nagorno-Karabakh region. And, on 19 September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a so-called “anti-terrorist” operation into the enclave having 95 per cent Armenian population, and within 24 hours Karabakh authorities accepted a ceasefire proposal offered by the Russian peacekeepers. However, Armenia, a member of Russia dominated Collective Security Treaty Organisation, an alliance of Post-Soviet states that pledges to protect each-other in the event of an attack, has been eyeing on joining International Criminal Court, which has issued warrant against Russian President Valdimir Putin over Russia-Ukraine war, earlier this month, Armenian PM sent the ICC’s founding document, the Rome Statute, to be ratified by parliament. Amid all these developments, Russia is of the opinion that as Armenia recognises Nagorno-Karabakh as a part of Azerbaijan, the collective security mechanism of CSTO will not be applicable in this case. The reason, Pashinyan said, “The systems of external security in which Armenia is involved are ineffective when it comes to the protection of our security and Armenia’s national interests.” Clearly, Russian engagement in the Ukraine war has marred its ability to get indulged in the other conflicts of the Eurasian region. Meanwhile, on Monday, Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met his Azeri counterpart Ilham Aliyev just days after Baku captured the separatist enclave. Although his visit was officially organised to launch the construction of a gas pipeline, Nagorno-Karabakh was also discussed. Erdogan said, “The window of opportunity has opened to settle the situation in the region… This opportunity must not be missed.” Amidst of all these Armenia appears to be all alone and preparing to accommodate a flood of refugees. But who let the crisis go down to such an extent? Why were Armenia and Azerbaijan not able to seal a deal that could have been accommodating to both? Why the region since three decades have been disturbed by violence and insecurity? Why does peaceful coexistence not appear an option? The reason is involvement of big powers and the use of small nations as the pawns in their so-called “great-games”. The “realism” and “strategic interests” of these powers have made people suffer statelessness, destitution and miseries in the affected region. Further, national sentiments are a tough water to play with, because identity is perceived as a very crucial element in the survival of a political community, to which state and territory are closely aligned. The whole concept of “modern state” adheres to this concept, whereby territory, population, sovereignty and government are four basic elements. Undoubtedly, the world underestimated the potential the treaty of Versailles had, which later resulted in a full grown conflict of World War II. Both the political communities — Armenian and Azeri — need to understand that they “can change friends, but not the neighbours” and by virtue of their geopolitical relevance they will always be on the strategic radar of every major power of the region. They require more accommodative, more localised, inclusive, co-existential diplomatic arrangements and bilateral understanding and confidence building to secure any lasting solutions. Otherwise, the great game would be played and their interests would be played down. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views._ Read all the  Latest News,  Trending News,  Cricket News,  Bollywood News, India News and  Entertainment News here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.