Myanmar at a crossroads: Third anniversary of military coup

Myanmar marks the third anniversary of its latest military coup on 1 February 2024. On its eve, the military junta announced, for the fifth time, a prolongation of the emergency provisions until 31 July. According to this decision, the National Defence and Security Council grants Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, the armed forces commander, the capability to govern Myanmar for a further six months through the State Administration Council. This council can undertake judicial, executive and legislative functions. The State Administration Council had initially stated that elections would be held in August 2023. Rising instability and conflict among ethnic groups across the country have dampened their desire, if there ever was one, to return to civilian rule. On 6 January 2024, in Naypyitaw, the idea of holding elections through regime-friendly and ‘acceptable’ political parties was reiterated. Now, according to the UN, nearly 70 per cent of Myanmar is a conflict zone. Various ethnic groups with military capabilities have conducted Operation 1027 since October 2023. These reports also indicate that 34 towns are out of the control of Myanmar’s administration, if not controlled by the resistance groups themselves. Some resistance groups operating across northern Myanmar cleaned up towns on the Chinese border that held ‘scam centres.’ Along the Indian border, there have been clashes leading to Myanmar forces having to flee to India to escape the ethnic groups’ onslaught. The number of displaced people in Myanmar is now reportedly 2.6 million and the number of civilians killed in Myanmar over the years is reportedly 1,600, with more than 500 dead since the October fighting began. There is coordination among the people and the defence forces linked to the National Unity Government, which opposes the coup leaders. The Arakan Army and the Karen resistance have gained greater strength and seized army camps near India, Bangladesh and Thailand, often disrupting border trade. Rebel action against scam centres across their border has the quiet support of China, which otherwise remains loyal to the military regime. India is perturbed about the impact of Myanmar’s instability and fighting on their border regions as Manipur has already been on the boil for a while. The resistance action has led to not only minority ethnic groups but even the majority Bamar taking up arms in many areas. The UNHCR report in January of this year stated that ‘deepening violence, rising poverty levels, and deteriorating living conditions are having a devastating impact on people’s lives.’ The National Unity Government has aligned with many of these ethnic groups and resistance fighters, but there is no common administration to replace the displacement of the military regime. Harsh actions by the junta against military commanders on the Chinese and Indian borders, where troops surrendered to the rising ethnic forces are causing disenchantment among mid-level military officials. The situation is bad, but not to the point where the military regime is withering away. The major cities are not truly under threat. As the Junta announced an extension of the emergency, the National Unity Government, along with the Chin National Front, Karen National Union (KNU), and Karenni National Progressive Party, offered a dialogue with sections of the Myanmar junta, hoping to bring an end to the military regime and facilitate a peaceful transition to a civilian government. They seek an unconditional acceptance of their political objectives. The three ethnic groups are part of the ‘K3C’ group allied with the NUG, but the Kachin Independence Organization is not a signatory to this call. Could the military regime’s efforts to civilianize itself match this effort for dialogue? This is once again an opportunity for ASEAN to play a bigger role. ASEAN Foreign Ministers, meeting in Laos (the current chairman) on 29 January, decided to restart the dispatch of humanitarian aid to Myanmar for the first time since the political crisis in Myanmar three years ago. This aid is likely to cross the border with Thailand and include food and medical provisions. The town of Mae Sot is expected to be used by the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance, also called the AHA Centre. Mae Sot is an important town on the Indian-built trilateral highway. Myanmar was represented at this meeting by a senior official, and Myanmar did not boycott this meeting. They have accepted ASEAN’s humanitarian aid proposal. This was the first time in two years that a Myanmar representative was at an ASEAN Foreign Ministers meeting. An earlier ASEAN decision not to accept a military participant had kept Myanmar from sending anybody, but that has now changed. Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia among others, however, remain clear that Myanmar needs to return to the implementation of the five-point consensus (5PC), which they agreed upon at the highest level during the April 2021 meeting in Jakarta. Laos, which along with Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam, takes a slightly nuanced view, has appointed its senior diplomat Alounkeo Kittikhoun as the Special Envoy of the ASEAN chair for Myanmar. He quietly met with the junta on 10 January. This shows that dialogue between the Myanmar junta and ASEAN is being restored. During the preceding Indonesian chairmanship of ASEAN, a troika model to deal with Myanmar is in operation. Under this model, Indonesia, Laos, and the next chair, Malaysia, are coordinating their plans. After the ASEAN FMs meeting, they ‘reaffirmed ASEAN’s commitment to assisting Myanmar in finding a peaceful, comprehensive, and durable solution to the ongoing crisis, as Myanmar remains an integral part of ASEAN.’ On 31 January, the junta relaxed election registration rules for political parties. This reduces the minimum membership of a party to 50,000 from the earlier 100,000. It also reduced the need for party offices in 165 locations across Myanmar. The junta is now witnessing the enthusiasm and power of the Myanmar youth who, since 2011, had the benefit of an open economic and political system and is not letting up on restoring it after a decade of enjoyment. These youth, across ethnicities, appear to be at the vortex of various ethnic and Bamar militias. The junta forces are losing control in many areas as they engage in a two-front war with minuscule public support. It is hoped that they will avert further bloodshed and the denigration of the country and agree to a transition to civilian rule. The writer is a former ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN and the African Union. He tweets @AmbGurjitSingh. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views._ Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.