Maldives, China and a challenge to India's soft power diplomacy

The Maldives’ overture towards China for a new identity seems like a miscalculated hara-kiri it has inflicted upon itself. The move, refusing support from India and seeking the same from China, undermines its double-fronted foreign policy concerning India. India needs to help the country correct its miscalculations in geopolitics. The world should consider two clear aspects in the Maldivian moves: First, it is possible that, like Pakistan, it will procure weapons from China for potential use against India, ostensibly to reduce the Indian “influence” it complains about. Second, it may evolve into a base for transnational terrorism, similar to Pakistan, potentially reinforcing Chinese anti-India rhetoric. Maldives has already obtained military drones from Turkiye, citing the need to monitor its coastal skies. The next destination for the Maldivian president is likely to be Pakistan. By behaving in this manner, Maldives aligns with the Chinese structural realist plan, which aims to encircle India in the Indian hinterland. Simultaneously, it boosts the morale of Pakistani terrorists, currently invisible on the scene. Although Pakistan is now off the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list, with India’s consent, it may adopt a low-profile policy for some time, apart from occasional anti-India rhetoric. Historically, India has consistently supported Maldives in various aspects, from national development to security and economy. India has provided assistance ranging from daily necessities to education, security, and healthcare, including the supply of COVID-19 vaccines. Despite India’s significant soft power contributions, the recent shift in Maldivian preferences towards communal alliances is evident. India has always nurtured a symbiotic relationship with the Maldives for economic development and progress. India has never dominated but worked collaboratively, offering technological know-how and training personnel instead of imposing loans. India prioritises participatory exchanges over military-shadowed soft power tools, fostering neo-symbiotic relations. At a mid-January meeting on the sidelines of the Non-Alignment Movement (NAM) in Kampala, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar assured the Maldivian Foreign Minister Moosa Zameer of the continuation of development projects despite dissent. India’s symbiosis with the Maldives, rooted deeply beyond soft power tools, should withstand the temporary shift in leadership. India’s quest for symbiosis should focus on ruling out terror and ensuring the Maldivian people maintain their dignity and cooperation with India. As a secular democratic Republic, India remains committed to supporting the Maldives in its developmental strides through policies like Development Participation, prioritizing the island nation as part of its “neighbourhood first” approach. All these efforts reflect India’s use of soft power foreign policy tools. Is India’s soft power losing its strength? The common ground of anti-India diatribe in Sino-Pak foreign policy has currently embraced Maldives as well. India’s soft power seems to have taken a back seat in the behavioural pattern of the Maldivian policy towards India. This has prompted an afterthought about the efficacies of soft power. Can soft power indeed be equally effective in the post-Cold War era, which worked during the fag-end of the Cold War? There are examples of the inefficacies of soft power. Between 1991 and 2005, the world witnessed over 3,238 wars between states, mostly neighbours, over territories. The people-to-people contact and other soft power tools, shadowed by military might, have been at work among these neighbours. The wars took place, albeit all these tools were in place. Soft power proved too soft to stop individual aspiration and communal machination, as exemplified by the policies of Turkiye and Pakistan. Despite established intolerance against the communal behaviour of the Uyghur Muslims, China joins the axis only to up its ante against India. The countries that play the Muslim card in international relations ignore the Chinese genocide of the Uyghurs, only to build up a communal axis against India. China joins them to posit its border claims, a policy move by crook. No amount of soft power could stop China as yet. The Chinese policies about the Uyghurs, who are the second-largest Muslim ethnicity in China, after the Hui, and Sunni Islam being their identity, do not dampen Pakistani and Turkic enthusiasm about China because they have to target India. However, as for India, it is for internal assessment to examine what exactly went wrong in the relations with Maldives. India needs to look into its own style of functioning to ensure new symbiotic realistic relations with a partner state so that Maldivian experiences do not recur. Geopolitically, India needs the Maldives in its new symbiotic bonding, also because that makes sense to ensure security to India. The island state is geographically close to India, about 70 nautical miles off Minicoy in Lakshadweep. The island state is 300 nautical miles away from the Western Coast of India. All this aside, the Maldives is situated on the sea lane of communication of India for entering the Indian Ocean. Allowing it to fall into the Chinese structural trap is a security concern for India, as long as China continues its make-belief claims over Indian territories. The writer is an Academic Counsellor, Indira Gandhi National Open University, New Delhi. Formerly Senior Consultant (Media), VCO, Indira Gandhi National Open University, Former Editor on Desk The Times of India, New Delhi. He is available for contact at smahalanobis2008@gmail.com. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the Latest News , Trending News , Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.