Maharashtra conundrum: A win-win scenario for BJP

The endeavour to take over the Shiv Sena by Eknath Shinde is the most audacious attempt by any politician after the famous hijacking of the Congress by Indira Gandhi using the presidential elections of 1968-69. She succeeded and Eknath may succeed too. I must confess that I did not expect such a massive shift required to upset the MVA apple cart and I always felt that this alliance will survive the entire term because the terms of sharing the spoils of the power had been well set by Sharad Pawar.

Let us bury the bogey of ethics and morality, especially in this case. The betrayal by the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray group) of the electoral verdict by ditching the victorious combine to fulfil the ambition of being the chief minister of one of the best governed and forward-looking states in every sense has destroyed this moral high ground. Beyond this miasma of legal arguments and confusion created by secular-woke lobby to justify the existence of this illegitimate alliance of two defeated Congress parties and a lame junior partner of the winning alliance, there are crystal clear facts:

·         The Shiv Sena and the Congress are not natural allies. They have had opposing vote bases and ideologies for decades. It is Hindutva vs faux secular deep divide. You can form a post-poll government but when it comes to elections both are incompatible. You can’t fight the next election by taking the Congress line and competing for the same voter base. Your Hindutva base will move completely to the BJP.

·         Shiv Sena leaders realise this and have been restive for sufficiently long time, as reports suggest. They fear total rout in the next election. Hence, they pulled the chain now before it was too late to retrieve their chances by going back to their own roots. They might have enjoyed the fruits of office for two more years but their future would have been bleak.

·         Coupled with this is the bitter truth that Uddhav Thackeray has been a disaster as the chief minister. An absentee chief minister for nearly two years, working from behind computer screens and telephones, he hardly met anybody. While Ajit Pawar was busy serving his constituency and helping his MLAs for work in their constituencies, Shiv Sena MLAs were left high and dry and wouldn’t get an appointment or fair hearing from their boss. They feared facing their constituents. They have a two-year window to improve their chances if they are able to form a government with BJP as they are advocating.

Now, I come back to my opening statement. It is not easy to break a cadre-based party dedicated to the memory of their inspiration Balasaheb Thackeray. Raj Thackeray had to form his own party. He is a near mirror image of his Kaka (paternal uncle, but his inconsistency and unpredictability took him down. This rebellion is a tribute to Eknath Shinde’s acumen and management skill.

Many blame or accuse the BJP for this split. They forget that the BJP had tried earlier too and failed. This time it is far more cautious and the rebellion is managed by Shinde and his friends. As far as the BJP is concerned, which political party would not fish in the troubled waters? And in this case, it has the additional grouse of being cheated of its rightful right to govern. Interestingly, the BJP’s success rate in the elections was 70 per cent while Shiv Sena’s was 44 per cent.

Lack of political acumen saw Uddhav Thackeray like a sitting duck, despite two occasions of cross-voting — the second one during the Rajya Sabha polls being more serious than the first one. The reaction has been slow. It is Sanjay Raut’s style. First the denial of anything being amiss despite a large number of MLAs flying the coop, then the abrasive style showed a lack of understanding of the party.

This rump left behind is of the people who have not faced the rough and tumble of street-level politics of the Shiv Sena. The Uddhav Thackeray group is now left with club class elite led by his own son, whose interests match that of club class elite fighting for ‘Aarey bachao’ type of issues with Mumbai citizens paying a heavy price due to inexcusable delay in metro lines. And they, including the Sena cadre, will remember this setback to their dream of ease of living. Support from Bollywoodian champagne-sipping club members for Aditya showed his interest in superficial issues like keeping the pubs open till late, etc.

The artificially pumped up street anger with the covert support of the NCP has not gone down well with the people. The rebel group MLAs are closely tied to their cadre base. They have fought and won against the Congress, BJP and MNS, etc, in last few decades, while Aditya himself had to leave his home ground in Bandra East and search for the safest seat in Worli by replacing the previous winner Sunil Shinde and had to get earlier MLA of NCP, Sachin Ahir, on his side to ensure his safe passage. So, we can see how this muscle power can boomerang.

The legal posturing too has been handled very poorly by Uddhav Thackeray. They couldn’t get a Speaker in place once Nana Patole was made to resign to take over the Congress leadership. It shows the dearth of talent in the Congress now. The deputy speaker had no right to disqualify the MLAs, if they broke party discipline. They could be thrown out of the party but in that case they would retain their Vidhan Sabha seats. But he is not qualified to pass orders inside the Shiv Sena as he is not a party member due to his current post. They could be disqualified by him only if they refused to attend Vidhan Sabha and disobeyed a whip. But it was not the case. The rebel group’s challenge of no confidence in the Deputy Speaker was a much smarter move, as Supreme Court proceedings show.

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Clearly, Shiv Sena is in for a split with family ownership gone. It could also encourage other captive leaders of other dynastic parties to not allow their respective parties to decay under their failed leaders. This could see the revival of the Shiv Sena, an unintended consequence of this chain of events for the BJP. The BJP won’t be able to occupy the entire Hindutva space. But, at the same time, it will ensure re-unification of the Hindutva voter base. If at all, the Shiv Sena can save its position by manipulating a few rebel MLAs with muscle power, etc, it will still end up weakening a badly bruised Shiv Sena that will be trapped within the Congress ecosystem, thus becoming another secular party. It will end up strengthening the BJP’s image as the reliable development-oriented ruling party with many Shiv Sena leaders joining it.

Thus, this episode is a win-win situation for the BJP and a lose-lose proposition for Shiv Sena and its current allies. The party that may end up losing the most is the Congress as the dust settles down. As things stand, I see chances of this coup succeeding.

The reviewer is a well-known author and political commentator. Views expressed are personal.

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