Life beyond G20: The anticipated trifecta of the ‘Next Big, Bigger and Biggest Thing’?

The G20 successfully concluded, but the hangover lingers on, with a huge collective surge in national hubris, and an upbeat mood prevalent in the country. The summit enabled Bharat to highlight its role as a dependable partner in the global economy, which enhances the nation’s credibility to attract higher inbound foreign investments. With Brand India gaining heft in the international arena, it will grant us a bigger say in geoeconomics and in multilateral fora. Gaining such credence, the ruling BJP’s campaign pitch would rightfully leverage this for domestic political gains. The next ‘Big Thing’ is back to domestic politics, and the forthcoming parliament session. What does it portend? Now, with the G20 behind us, it’s back to domestic themes, building upto the Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. Indians are perennially riveted by cricket and politics, as a win or loss gets their adrenaline surging. The next ‘Big Thing’ will now be how the I.N.D.I.A bloc recalibrates, and perhaps even undergoes a name change, in quick response to the rechristening of India as Bharat, which was formally printed on the President’s invitation card just prior to the summit. ‘Bharat’ versus ‘I.N.D.I.A’ as of now is all about semantics and synonyms. If the opposition alliance of 36 parties strategically anointed its name as I.N.D.I.A, it must have aimed at projecting a unified nationalist bloc in their attempt to match upto the ‘Bharatiyata’ of the BJP…..that they were no less rooted in India’s ideological and cultural heritage. The opposition’s competitive nationalism with the BJP is reminiscent of how the Congress gradually took to mimicking the BJP by hybridising its strictly secular credentials and shifting to a ‘Soft Hindutva’ stance before the last general elections. That the two templates of BJPs successive wins wrested on the dual themes of nationalism and religious fervour are attributes the opposition will emulate. Any which way, the thus far united opposition will compete in laying siege upon a nomenclature and narrative that tries to outdo the BJPs nationalist credentials. With recent near-blasphemous utterances of some prominent South Indian politicians on the flaws of the Sanatana Dharma, it will be vantage for the BJP as a talking point to further polarise. With the Congress not condemning these utterances, it could sabotage their soft-Hindutva posturing. Either way, the polemics and campaign pitches around the elections of 2024 are anticipated to be of the most polarised, personalised and vituperative genre ever historically. But the ‘Bigger Thing’ to happen is just five days away. It’s the suspense around the agenda of the special five-day session of Parliament convened by the Modi government starting on the 18 September. Will Parliament be dissolved and will this be the last session ahead of the Lok Sabha elections? Any announcement Prime Minister Modi has made during his decadal tenure has always in his signature style been shrouded in utmost secrecy upto the last. Whatever the agenda, it is expected to preempt, shock and stun the opposition as the suspense builds up to the 18 September. With state and general elections around the corner, the guessing game is on whether the session is going to be about a grand recount of the Modi sarkar’s achievements during his tenure, culminating in announcing a preponement of general elections. Albeit, as is common knowledge, a majority government is empowered in itself to decide on this aspect through a cabinet decision and does not constitutionally need to convene a Parliament session to decide on preponing elections. Outcome of the five State elections will re-position Rahul Gandhi’s standing negatively or positively within the opposition bloc but will have a lesser impact on Modi’s re-win in 2024. The next ‘Big Thing’ thereafter will be the outcome of five state elections scheduled for November-December, before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, three of which are in the Hindi heartland belt: Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. As this will be a fiercely contested race between the BJP and the Congress, the levels of anti-incumbency are high in Madhya Pradesh as also in Rajasthan. A recent election survey on Rajasthan projects the results will be in keeping with the state’s history of electing alternate governments to power since 25 years. As per the ABP News CVoter opinion poll held in July, the BJP is poised for a comfortable majority, and is expected to secure 109 to 119 seats while the incumbent Congress government is projected to win 78 to 88 seats. The same ABP-CVoter Survey indicates that in Madhya Pradesh Congress and the ruling BJP are headed for a close contest down to the wire in the 230 member Assembly. The incumbent BJP is likely to bag 106 to 118 seats while the Congress is expected to get 108-120 seats. The stakes are obviously higher for the Congress in all the states. Because, how the Congress fares will determine the course of Rahul Gandhi’s political eminence. If the Congress does well, it would increase Gandhi’s bargaining power within the opposition bloc to position himself as a prime ministerial candidate. While the opposition alliance has yet to announce its convenor and Common Minimum Program, the BJP-led NDA is already in micro-management mode, working zealously towards ‘Mission 350’, with Modi proclaiming with supreme confidence: “2024, I Will be back!” Of course a win in even more than one state will drive further momentum for the ruling party. But regardless of the outcome in state elections, recent opinion polls show Modi continues to loom larger than life on the national horizon and in the psyche of the electorate. Therefore, any reversal in state elections is not likely to ruffle Modi’s popularity ratings, as people vote on localised issues in state elections, and nationally, it is seeming more like the ‘TINA FACTOR’ at play, where ‘there is no alternative’ to the incumbent. Infact, with the deliverables on the governments social sector schemes achieving near saturation, even after two consecutive terms, it could well escalate Modi’s pro-incumbency weightage. The finale will crescendo with the opening of the Ram Mandir as close to the elections as possible. In the trifecta of the Big, Bigger and Biggest, the next ‘Biggest Thing’ before the general elections will be the consecration of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya on 14 January 2024 which will be another global event that will resonate with the sentiments of Hindu’s worldwide. So, by catering to the religious fervour of the majority community, BJP gets to retain, consolidate, and perhaps gain further traction with its core voter base. Secondly, integrating the success of Chandrayaan 3 and the G20 into the election pitch, it connotes Vikas(progress) achieved in higher realms, appealing to the aspirational youth base, as it signifies a coming of age of Bharat as an emerging superpower. And thirdly, by shedding the last remnants of our colonial past by anointing India as Bharat, it appeals to popular nationalistic fervour. The Modi-Shah election machine would adeptly weave-in these multiple poll planks, firing on all cylinders, as each one of these themes caters to diverse aspirations of the BJP’s voter base, founded as it is on the triad of nationalism, religious fervour and Vikas. Each one of the three elements have comprised the BJPs template for a winnable formula that helped in securing two consecutive terms. As to what will be the BJPs surprise ‘X factor’ closer to elections is a wait and watch! The author is ex-Chairperson for the National Committee for Financial Inclusion and Literacy, Niti Aayog. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the Latest News , Trending News , Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook , Twitter and Instagram .