Karnataka Elections 2023: Infighting poses hurdle for Congress; sympathy vote for Rahul Gandhi not enough

The largest obstacle facing the party before the forthcoming Assembly elections, which are scheduled on 10 May, is internal strife inside the Congress in Karnataka. The high command of the party has been working hard to divert attention from the dire but subtle situation within Congress. In contrast, the grassroots leaders in a state like Karnataka are what determine the outcome of an election, not the high command’s plan. Former chief minister Siddharamaiah and Karnataka Congress chief DK Shivakumar’s smiling photos look good in the news, but the party will have to deal with reality starting next month. In the meanwhile, there is optimism within the Congress that Rahul Gandhi’s disqualification will help the party get more sympathy votes, although this is unlikely to be the case on the ground. It is undeniable that the Bharatiya Janata Party’s organisational state is also not great, and winning the southern state will not be an easy task for them. But the party, which has a sizable structure all throughout the nation and prominent leaders like Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, has a well-placed strategy in place both before and after the election. The party is entirely dependent on the local leadership because there is no one in Congress who can mobilize voters on a national level. The party is attempting to suggest that it will win the poll in Karnataka with ease, although Congress has various obstacles. Infighting The rising intra-party strife is one of the most important problems the Congress is experiencing in Karnataka. The internal conflict in Congress and its ramifications are not discussed in great detail. Fighting has been occurring within the Congress as a result of factionalism brought on by the conflict between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar. Several leaders recently criticized the party’s high command for favouring Shivakumar during the ticket distribution. The organisation of the Congress in Karnataka needs a leader like DK Shivakumar, but the party also needs the former chief minister Siddaramaiah since he is a strong OBC face. Any animosity among Siddaramaiah’s supporters will only drive loyal supporters away from Congress, something the party cannot afford because the Lingayat vote is crucial to Congress’ chances of winning this election. Akhanda Srinivasamurthy is one example. who was formerly a prominent Janta Dal (Secular) leader but was recruited by Siddaramaiah to the Congress. The leader claimed that despite his previous huge success, he was not given a ticket this time around because he is close to the former chief minister. AC Srinivasa, a close friend of DK Shivakumar, received the ticket from the Pulakeshinagar assembly. Srinivasamurthy made the decision to run as an independent in this case. This is precisely what occurred in Rajasthan in 2019 when Sachin Pilot, the state Congress head at the time, cut the tickets of several figures close to Ashok Gehlot. The majority of these leaders ran for office on their own and were successful. In order to create a government, the Congress had to approach these figures. Factionalism will prevent the Congress high command from quelling the rising unhappiness within the party in Karnataka, and this could be the biggest obstacle for the grand old party in the state. Lingayat worry In terms of electoral politics, members of the Lingayat caste in Karnataka have a significant impact. Twenty per cent of the state’s electorate comes from the community. Under the leadership of former chief minister BS Yeddyurappa, the Bharatiya Janata Party has greatly benefited from the community’s support during the previous 20 years. In recent Karnataka Lingayat history, he was the tallest leader. Obtaining the Lingayat community’s support is the main issue facing Congress. Despite the party’s efforts to win over the community, the BJP has been successful in portraying the Congress as anti-Lingayat. Some political watchers in Karnataka think that the Congress itself has many potent Lingayat leaders. For this reason, the party appointed Lingayat leader MB Patil to oversee the Congress campaign committee in the state. After former chief minister Jagadish Shettar and former deputy chief minister Laxman Savadi switched from the BJP to the Congress, he gained support. Now, when it comes to the Lingayat community’s support, Congress is totally dependent on these two figures. Many people think that even though these two leaders might not be able to win the Congress, they can take away some Lingayat voters in certain areas from the BJP. Congress’ current problem is that they don’t have a backup strategy. If Shettar and Savadi fall short, Congress’ chances of winning remain slim. Similar to how Veerendra Patil was dumped by the Gandhi family by removing him from the position of chief minister, Congress cannot change the past. In 1989, Patil contributed to the party winning 178 of the 224 seats. The state has never since backed Congress. Leadership crisis Another major concern for the Congress across India, particularly Karnataka, is the problem of leadership. A growing number of camps, including those of DK Shivakumar, Siddaramaiah, and Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, are present across the state. Congress’ most recent election history suggests that the party can achieve success only with strong local leadership. Congress, however, continues to be totally reliant on the choices made by the top leadership. In charge is the state. Randeep Singh Surjewala, the state in=charge of Karnataka, for instance, merely serves as a message carrier for the Congress high command and has no real relationships to the state. Since Surjewala has started operating under this approach, numerous grassroots leaders in Karnataka have already voiced their disapproval of his methods. The state in control has not intervened in the meanwhile to put out the fire of internal conflict. There is also a perception that the high command in Delhi has muffled the voices of Karnataka in the ticket distribution. Congress won’t be able to solve the difficulties without allowing local leaders a free hand in the last stretch of the campaign. This leadership problem is a serious concern. Rahul’s sympathy bet It is well known that Congress has a dependence on the Gandhi family and, most importantly, Rahul Gandhi. The party is attempting to win sympathy votes in Karnataka following Gandhi’s recent expulsion from the Lok Sabha due to a two-year term handed down to him by a Surat court in a case involving defamtion. Additionally, Rahul Gandhi has already begun his election campaign in the state, but it’s unlikely that the populace will support using this kind of sympathy. Gandhi’s remarks towards people with the surname Modi were offensive and should not be minimized. Congress needs to understand that local elections cannot be decided by national or local concerns, such as the alleged fraud by the Adani group, or by sending out condolence cards. If the Congress is counting on Rahul Gandhi to make them to win the Karnataka election, they should be aware that over the past ten years, Gandhi has repeatedly failed to force the Congress to take home even a single electoral victory. Rahul Gandhi’s campaigning will be completely irrelevant in the end. Local issues, grassroots leadership, and a regional strategy focused on Karnataka will be important. The author is a columnist and doctoral research scholar in media and politics. He tweets @sayantan_gh. 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