Israel-Hamas conflict: Qatar spearheads diplomacy; Saudi Arabia balances cautious approach in shifting geopolitics

It goes without saying that the Israel-Hamas war in the event of the 7 October tragic attack on Israel by Hamas has disturbed the volatile Middle East and its shifting geopolitics. This disquiet, if continues, will harm the interests of several stakeholders in the region. Therefore, ceasefire, de-escalation and dialogue are the expressions that have acquired currency and importance. To take a detour out of the current impasse, Qatar has taken up the mantle of a broker-in-chief to de-intensify the conflict through diplomacy. There is no equivocation on Iran’s role in the conflict escalation. Its mastermind has gone deep into the process of brewing the trouble. Its support of Hamas is out in the open. What is more important is to see what the Saudi position is. Does it have a position? It should. It is crucial to see in what form and intensity. All eyes are apparently on Saudi Arabia for its actions and reactions to the Hamas-Israel conflict. However, Riyadh has evolved into a different global actor under Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS). Its image-crafting as a bankable player in the general perception and an interesting blend of technology, tourism, investment and global partnership constitute to a certain extent its compulsion not to act emotionally or impulsively. A measured and calculated reaction has been its standard response in the event of competitive accusation and counteraccusation that has become a global refrain since the tragic 7 October incident. Therefore, it is quite interesting to see how Riyadh balances itself in the stormy West Asian geopolitics. Given the gravity and sensitivity of the Palestinian issue, this balancing mechanism does not seem to go unnoticed. The Saudi position does seem this time to go dramatic over the turbulent geopolitics in the Middle East. The impression of normalisation that the Abraham Accords presented since 2020 was proven unrealistic and impossible by Hamas’ gruesome attack on Israel on 7 October. West Asia again has become a tense region. The Saudi aspiration for diversification of its economy through Vision 2030 and the image crafting it does to acquire global acceptability, will get serious challenges if the Hamas-Israel conflict escalates to the degree of irreversibility. The Saudi approach would be to minimise the conflict by exercising maximum pressure on Israel under the pretext of a civilian casualty in Gaza. The Sunni stakeholdership in Gaza will not allow Saudi Arabia to be critical of the Hamas. The Saudi custodianship of the Islamic holiest sites at Mecca and Medina presents it with a position where commenting on the conditions in Gaza becomes an imperative, not a choice. The Israel-Palestine conflict has always been a clash of cultures apart from it being a war on territory, nationhood and nation formation. When politics and religion are inseparable in the Gaza conflict, Saudi Arabia is left with no choice but to take a side and provide aid to Gaza. Its new aspirations which include economy, technology, freedom, global acceptability, etc., under MBS’s leadership, will meet impediments but certain positions it has to take to keep itself relevant in the emerging geopolitics of the region. However, Saudi Arabia needs regional stability to fulfill its new aspirations, modernity projects and technology-loaded futurism as showcased in Neom City. Its progress inarguably needs peace in the region. It has exercised strategic indifference to keep its interest intact with a few exceptions here and there. It is in a state of a curious fix. Neither does it help Gaza significantly as expected nor decouple from the American sphere of influence. The Gaza situation may be symbolic for Saudi Arabia at present because it cannot do much beyond a bearable point. It cannot be too indifferent because it will invite ire from other Islamic countries. The Saudi-Yemeni conflict has apparently been silent for over a year or so and at this junction to take any position that is remotely antithetical to the Gaza narrative will provoke Iran. This might lead to a fresh tension between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Iran’s support for the Houthi insurgents in Yemen is no longer a guarded secret. Riyadh will not do anything that may harm its interests. It is expected to play safe to keep itself engaged without taking any definitive stand. Its strategic and diplomatic ambivalence will serve its interest better than anything else possibly. Moreover, MBS understands the likelihood of the US-brokered Saudi-Israel normalisation of relations and its implications in resetting the geo-political architecture of the region with Riyadh at its helm. Hence, the Saudi priorities at present are different. Getting into the grip of the conflict will significantly affect its priorities. At least, MBS realises this too well and chooses a position that is innocuous. This is well illustrated in Saudi silence over the proposal of the blockade, which includes airspace, oil and other related areas, for an immediate ceasefire. The idea of weaponising Arab oil, gas and airspace has not been thought of as a fitting modus operandi against Israel. Therefore, it has not been tried so far. This also presents a definitive example of how West Asia stands deeply divided. Except for opinion-making and covert support, there is nothing on the ground that shows Arab solidarity. The Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and the Arab League Submit on 11 and 12 November respectively witnessed a barrage of opinions and condemnations against Israel and humanitarian aid to Gaza. Given this demonstrative anti-Israel stand, there remains in the subterranean state a strong sense of compulsion that restricts Arab nations not going overboard to do something counter-intuitive. This is the current state of geopolitics in West Asia where assertiveness and indifference are curiously juxtaposed. Dr Jajati K Pattnaik is an Associate Professor at the Centre for West Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Dr Chandan K Panda is an Assistant Professor at Rajiv Gandhi University, Itanagar. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the Latest News, Trending News, Cricket News, Bollywood News, India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.