Is Pakistan headed towards martial law as political turmoil persists despite Supreme Court verdict?

On 4 April, Pakistan’s three Judge Supreme Court (SC) bench led by Chief Justice (CJ) Umar Ata Bandial expectedly quashed as `illegal and unconstitutional’ the Chief Election Commissioner (CEC)’s 22 March order to hold the provincial assembly polls in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) on 24 October. The CJ directed the Punjab Assembly poll to be held now on 14 May. Various stages of the fresh election process were also delineated, not waiting for the CEC to perform this role! Dates for the KP poll would be given on a subsequent petition. Bandial disregarded requests from Attorney General Mansoor Awan and other lawyers of the Pakistan Bar Council to form a full court bench in the backdrop of splits within the higher judiciary and a bill passed for judicial reform, proposing curtailment of the CJ’s suo motu and bench constitution powers, which awaits President Arif Alvi’s assent. Simultaneously, a six-judge bench was constituted, of judges still siding with him, who negated, within minutes, Justice Qazi Faiz Isa’s recent order on the stay of suo moto jurisdiction cases. The order of the PDM government relieving controversial SC Registrar, Ishrat Ali was also not given effect to. Though most legal experts are of the view that this verdict was in line with the Constitution, it will likely set off another crisis. The decision has been seen as a slap in the face of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) coalition government of Shahbaz Sharif at the Centre and a shot in the arm for Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) party. Its Vice President, Shah Mehmood Qureshi exultantly hailed it as a victory (`Fateh’) and observed that it would enable the PTI to easily win the Punjab and KP polls, as also enable Imran’s return to power as prime minister whenever National Assembly elections are held. PDM cabinet `rejects’ judgment Holding a meeting after the verdict, the Federal Cabinet `rejected’ the judgment. Speaking briefly in the National Assembly (NA), Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif likened it to `a judicial murder’, rather in the vein of the 1978 Bhutto hanging judgment, issued ironically enough on his 44th death anniversary. In a press conference in London, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif reiterated the threat to file a reference (before the Supreme Judicial Council) against these three judges (the CJ and Justices Izharul Ahsan and Munib Akhtar). However, this issue was apparently not discussed in the Cabinet meeting. One option before the Federal Government is now to wait for the president’s assent to the judicial reform bill and appeal against the judgment. Even if the president does not give his assent, after its reiteration in the NA, the bill would become law after 20 days (expected by 20 April). The appeal would then be heard by a new bench, in the constitution of which seniormost judges, Qazi Faiz Isa and Tariq Masood, so far excluded, would have a voice apart from the CJ. However, this is a thin sliver of hope to undo the damage before 14 May, as chances of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) doing well if the vote goes ahead in Punjab in the current environs remain bleak. If the government does not hold the Punjab poll on 14 May, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will become liable for contempt of court. It may be recalled that two prime ministers before him (Yousuf Raza Gilani and Raja Pervez Ashraf of the People’s Party government) suffered a similar fate earlier. In course of a public interaction (4 April), Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah observed that an option to declare an Emergency could be on the table if conditions so demand. However, PDM’s alliance partners like the People’s Party may not be ready to go along with such a decision. Speaking at a Bhutto commemoration function in Sindh, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari only reiterated the demand for a full court decision, indicating that the PPP was ready for elections. Imran’s call for `new social contract’ In a rather favourable interview in the prestigious Time magazine (4 April), Imran Khan called for a “completely new social contract” to tackle the multiple crises facing the country. He claimed`the establishment wants to keep him out while people are focused on how to get him back in.’ He repeated his allegations against former army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa “for giving an NRO-like deal to the Sharif and Zardari families”. Reading between lines, this would indicate that Imran is hinting to change power equations between elected civilian politicians and the Pakistan Army, which has so far remained `the elephant in the room’. In fact, one of the reasons for his rather inexplicable persisting popularity graph, despite the exposure of double-faced claims of honesty, has been this belief among his young Pakistani electoral supporters that he may be able to achieve the unthinkable and finally send the army back to the barracks. Dissensions within army? How the army leadership views this prospect of Imran possibly returning to power would be crucial. There have been unconfirmed reports about simmering dissensions within the army, even after Bajwa’s retirement and a cautious, low-profile five months so far, of new Chief General Asim Munir’s tenure. It has been alleged that due to differences among senior Generals, regular Corps Commanders’ (CC) meetings, which are usually held once a month, have not been convened lately. The last CC meeting was on 31 January 2023. In itself, this may not be that unusual. After Imran Khan’s ouster (April, 2022), there were no CC meetings for three months (April, May and June). General Munir was saddled with a dozen new Lieutenant Generals (LG) promoted and posted by his predecessor just a few months ago. This tied his hands somewhat, as he would like to leave them at their posts for at least one year. General Munir has transferred some Major Generals, bringing in some ‘perceived pro-Islamic types’ to important slots (Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, son of former Suparco head, Sultan Mahmood as DG, ISPR and the ` long bearded’ Wajid Aziz as DG, MI). Murmurs from within mid-level Army officers suggest umbrage at some nepotism in selecting officers for foreign courses (Munir’s son-in-law and Bajwa’s relative sent to UK). In the Pakistan Army, the Chief is very definitely a first among equals. While he may get dissenting views during meetings, and differences of opinion may exist among senior officers, never in its history has a `coup’ of officers from below succeeded. Imran Khan’s attack on the new leadership has rankled many and just like his fan club there is now a healthy group of `Khan haters’ among uniformed folk. However, a general consensus prevails still, about staying away from politics. Officers have been given clear warnings about avoiding unauthorized political contacts. The new DGMI and ISI are keeping close tabs. A Special Investigations Bureau (SIB) under the direct control of the COAS secretariat is busy collecting evidence of corruption against some officers, to be used in due time under the new  Chairman, National Accountability Bureau, Lt Gen (retd) Nazir Ahmed Butt, who was Asim Munir’s commanding officer when Asim was a major. Losing the Punjabi elite support Apart from resistance within its ranks, a bigger problem facing the army is the loss of its support in the heartland of Punjab. Traditionally, the Punjabi elite has unquestioningly backed the army. A very large and influential section of this elite, mostly from Potohar or central Punjab, has  switched sides and is now firmly in the Imran camp. These include military families, their extended social networks, the ex-servicemen community, other sections of the Punjabi elite, including judges and their families, top lawyers, journalists, `YouTubers’ (social media influencers), who have fired a relentless barrage of poisonous venom at the military. General Munir is aware of this internal challenge and the political impact of the country’s youth bulge, which is now palpable and is evidenced by their participation in rallies and protests by political parties, especially those organised by PTI. These may intensify especially if and when Imran comes back to power. General Munir has been moving slowly in reshuffling senior generals. In the next two weeks, one Lt Gen promotion will fall vacant (Lt Gen Nauman Mehmood at National Defence University). This could lead to a limited reshuffle and then, a CC meeting could well be held. The next big round of retirements of LGs will be in September 2023, when he will promote and post 4-5 Lt Gens. This will entrench his position and he will be more assertive as then, key positions will be held by those promoted and posted by him. Even as this unprecedented divide of civilian politicians intensifies, the martial law option is not a viable remedy as it could bring international censure and sanctions, which could exacerbate an already difficult economic situation. Pakistan is desperate for foreign bail-out packages which could be stalled and the economy could face a meltdown if the country defaults. These developments only underline the crisis facing Pakistan today. The situation may get worse before it gets better. Political instability and uncertainty will remain the order of the day and we, in India must watch carefully without jumping to hasty conclusions. The writer is a former special secretary, Cabinet Secretariat. Views expressed are personal. Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.