India’s SCO chairmanship and its quest in bridging trust deficit

In the shadow of the recently concluded Narendra Modi’s visit to the US and the upcoming preparations for the G20 summit in New Delhi. India, under its chairmanship of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), is going to host the annual leaders’ summit in virtual format on 4 July 2023.

SCO is one of the largest emerging intergovernmental cooperation among leading economies in the Eurasian region. It encompasses the three leading powers in the Asian and Eurasian region, i.e., China, India, and Russia, along with several Central Asian countries. It remains at a pivotal merging point of Asia, Europe, and Middle East with the possibility of Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia joining it. If one is to consider the geographic scope and population, SCO is the world’s largest regional organisation in terms of area, covering approximately 60 percent of Eurasia and 42 percent of the world population, and representing 25 percent of the global GDP. SCO member states account for 25 percent of the world’s oil reserves, and 50 percent of natural gas and uranium deposits.

SCO was set up to discuss security-related concerns in the Eurasian region. With this objective, it established ‘Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure’ (RATS) in 2004 that serves to promote cooperation of member states on regional terrorism, ethnic separatism, and religious extremism in the region. The theme of India’s chairmanship of the SCO is “Towards a SECURE SCO”. The SECURE acronym stands for Security, Economy and Trade, Connectivity, Unity, Respect for Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity, and Environment.

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Despite the rising prominence of SCO as a critical forum to meet and discuss issues relevant to the Eurasian region, several divergences and complexities marred its shared goals. First, SCO is largely designed for increasing the sphere of influence of the ‘Big Two’ (China and Russia) among the Central Asian republics. For Russia, it envisages to maintain and enhance its sphere of influence among the former soviet states — often termed Russia’s ‘backyard’. For China, Central Asia provides a vital link to its ambitious ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (BRI) to connect China with Europe and the heartland region in between.

Russia has agreed to provide security to the BRI and link it to the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). In so doing, Sino-Russian ‘limitless’ partnership is leveraged to safeguard their shared interests in Central Asia that eventually helps muscle out the influence of the Western nations in the region. India needs to be concerned about Russia’s growing reliance on China as the Ukraine conflict drags on. Meaning that Russia might pivot towards China at the expense of its relationship with New Delhi.

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Second, Central Asian countries that lay at the epicentre of the SCO remain inherently unstable and volatile. Water disputes in that region have become a source of friction between the countries endangering regional stability and security. Dams in the upstream countries of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan make the downstream countries of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan concerned because of the potential lack of water supply. The construction of Rogun Dam in Tajikistan could impact downstream Uzbekistan that previously led to deterioration of relations between them. In September 2022, border clashes broke out between two SCO member-states Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, killing 94 people of the two warring nations, thus signalling their friction could destabilise the entire region. Russia would not like to see another theatre of confrontation in the Eurasian region beyond the heightened tensions and volatility in the Caucasus (Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia) and the ongoing Ukraine conflict (East Europe).

Third, both India and Pakistan were given SCO membership in 2017 with the aim to further legitimise and extend SCO’s influence in the south Asian region. However, the historical rivalry between India and Pakistan and worsening relations between India and China casts a shadow on the forum’s common objectives. While member nations do not discuss bilateral issues at the SCO, tensions do prevail. This was evident when India hosted the foreign ministers of the SCO nations in Goa in May 2023. The cold relations between India vis-à-vis China and Pakistan were in full display.This means that nothing substantive can come out of it in terms of concrete measures to diffuse tensions among member nations that threatens regional stability.India is cognizant of the fact that its engagement with China or even Pakistan at the SCO will be of multilateral nature, but it can use this forum to create a channel of dialogue to discuss outstanding issues and ensuring peace and tranquility in the border areas.

India can also use the SCO forum to broaden and deepen its engagement with Central Asian republics often called its ‘extended neighborhood’.PM Modi hosted the first ever meeting of the India-Central Asia Summit, with the participation of the Presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, in a virtual format in January 2022. India’s ‘Connect Central Asia’ policy has the potential for extensive potential for trade, investment, and growth, as the region is richly endowed with commodities such as crude oil, natural gas, cotton, gold, copper, aluminum, and iron. To counter China’s influence in the region which is already the largest trading partner to most of the Central Asian economies, rendering them extremely dependent on trade with China.India needs to enhance its influence through the 3T cooperation in ‘trade, technology and transportation’ with the Central Asian nations. India could expand the ‘International North–South Transport Corridor’ (INSTC) linking it to other Central Asian countries–thereby gaining safe access to energy exports to meet India’s growing demand. All these are compelling reasons for India to achieve a more stable and larger Indian economic presence, so that Central Asia is not merely consigned to Chinese or Russian influence.

India could leverage its SCO chairmanship to address two key issues that serve its geostrategic interests. First, explore ways to de-escalate confrontation between Russia and the West over the Ukraine conflict. Second, raise concerns over China’s expansionist behavior on the agenda. Both seem unlikely to be discussed explicitly. So then, what is the relevance of SCO for India? Possibly this might be the reason for India to move the leader’s summit in a virtual format that might be reflective of a huge trust and credibility deficit for the SCO. Nonetheless, its presence at this high table for India is a signaling to other member nations of its strategic posturing in the evolving geopolitical chess game in the Eurasian theater. Its presence also helps to counterbalance Pakistan’s SCO membership and its growing nexus with China and in the region. India needs to skillfully leverage its relationship with Russia to emerge as a key player ushering a ‘rebalancing of power’ in the Eurasian region.

SCO has the potential to redraw the world order with three economic, military, and political behemoths ‘China, India and Russia’ coming together, despite territorial disputes and their inherent strategic differences and divergences. SCO has evolved into one of the most dynamic organisations and can be a game changer in Eurasia by ensuring regional security and stability and has the potential to shift the global geopolitical landscape.

Mohit Anand is Professor of International Business and Strategy at EMLYON Business School, France. Rajesh Mehta is a leading consultant and columnist working on market entry, innovation and public policy. Views expressed are personal.

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