India’s national security strategy in 2023 and the imperative for continuity in 2024

Leaving out internal politics, 2023 proved to be a good year for India, from all angles – economic, geopolitical, foreign policy and even aspirational esteem. Leading the bandwagon of positive developments was the economy which continues to be the fastest-growing in the world, barely two years after the pandemic-ridden downturn. At 7.3 per cent growth and $3.732 trillion GDP ($13.119 trillion- PPP 2023), it remains the fifth largest economy of the world. The single-minded focus of the Indian government has correctly been on conflict avoidance, no unnecessary involvement in geopolitical wrangling, yet secure borders and balanced relationships which can sustain crises. This has ensured steady growth without obstacles. It’s the model that China’s Deng Xiao Ping followed from 1978, by toning down rhetoric, establishing stable borders, a distinct lack of aggressiveness, with advancement in capability through technical education and the modernisation of agriculture and technologies. China followed that for several years before adopting its aggressive stance of today.

The year 2023 witnessed the repositioning of India after the pandemic, shedding some of the reticence and loss of faith that may have entered in the system due to the setbacks in the economy and the manufacturing sector in India. There was sufficient confidence for the nation to launch its own Chandrayaan-3 in a moon exploration mission placing India among the few nations with a successful space exploration programme which gave a boost to the confidence of the scientific community. It is that confidence which will continue to hold good as we look at the technological transformation in AI, cyber, quantum and other technologies.

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It’s in the domain of G20 where India scored maximum brownie points in creating a niche position. The ability to steer a draft resolution without any negative references to the war in Ukraine was an achievement in deft diplomacy. The ability to position itself as the voice of the Global South was another achievement. India made strong interventions in strengthening the Global South, including through the African Union becoming a permanent member of the grouping and by triggering concrete action-oriented, G20 outcomes for the Global South. By introducing the 13th vertical in the agenda through the inclusion of disaster risk reduction India gave a firm direction to concern for disasters, particularly risk financing, infrastructure and early warning.

Before dwelling on some key geopolitical aspects which proved challenging it’s also important to mention the range of activities from a civilisational angle. The G20 motto of ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam’ sought to internationalise a core idea of Indian humanism. A human-centric global system, the idea of sustainable development, research on climate resilient grains, the Global Initiative for Global Health, our success in developing Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) and One Future Alliance to implement DPI are important too. While 2023 had the vehicle of G20 to position India as a leader in much of this we have to seek similar avenues to maintain a continuum in 2024.

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In geopolitics, the developing strategic partnership with the US continued but with a few small hiccups. It has come a long distance since 2005 when the first signals of cooperation in the military field were mooted and the threat from a rising China was just beginning to be felt. The US does not wish to confront China in open conflict on Taiwan or any other issues but is ensuring its linkages are well established so that a range of options would always be available should a confrontation be inevitable. India remains one of the most important elements in that strategy. The relationship has sequentially emerged with the development of trust and greater engagement. Obstacles do emerge from time to time to cause erosion in the strength of the partnership, such as all the issues concerning India’s strong relationship with Russia once the Ukraine war got underway. On this India maintained a largely neutral stance based on interests and has even had all economic contacts with Russia, including in the field of energy, despite US sanctions.

While the US may have made conciliatory gestures towards Pakistan to pressurise India the latter has stuck to its interests-based stance. The prime minister’s visit to the US was a runaway success. India and the US launched a new initiative to drive cooperation in hi-tech across seven areas, with a focus on removing barriers and export controls standing in the way of enhanced collaboration. The move is part of the initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) and envisages closer cooperation between private industry, researchers and academia of the two sides. AI and quantum computing, advanced materials, defence, semiconductors, next-generation telecommunications, biotech and space were some of the areas in which discussions commenced in 2023. The momentum will have to continue in 2024.

Jammu and Kashmir ceased to be an issue in international affairs due to some deft handling but resurgent attempts by Pakistan at finding relevance will continue. There are various traps that Pakistan can set for us to attempt derailing the achievements of better integration of Jammu and Kashmir with India. The current run of events in the Pir Panjal region bears the potential of spreading more discontent and expanding the grey zone in Jammu and Kashmir during 2024, an important year from a political standpoint.

In the Middle East India’s stance has been to remain in cooperation with Israel without letting up on the excellent relationships it enjoys with the Gulf kingdoms. It has worked well as long as there was nothing drastic which could alter the Arab-Israeli relationship. The war with Hamas which commenced on 7 October 2023 has forced us to straddle and things are currently under control with the majority of the Arab nations also ranged against Hamas although in a guarded way. However, this is not sustainable because Israel’s overkill doctrine in its assault on Gaza could progressively bring many Arabs together and potentially the OIC too, more stridently against Israel.

The Indian approach supports the two-state theory which finds resonance in most of the Middle East. We will need to ensure that balance is retained through visits, one-off statements and institutional empathy. India has also handled its relationship with Iran with balance.

What has been sowed in 2023 by the Israel-Hamas war is the seeds for the return of global terror in unpredictable forms. The sorry plight of Palestinians, Hamas and potentially Hezbollah militancy will give an impetus to the ideological simmering which had gone comparatively low-key after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the decline of Islamic State (Daesh) and the focus taken away by the Ukraine war. The effects on India need to be reassessed from time to time.

The neighbourhood is a zone from which our focus can be lifted only at our peril. Maldives appears temporarily lost but its compulsions are too many as far as its dependence on India is concerned. We have to only unruffle some ideological feathers to re-establish better ties. Sri Lanka is a better cry than some years ago, thanks to the generous economic packages India has given to bail it out. It’s Bangladesh which is far too significant and where we have largely been at a loss to establish relations with credible alternatives. An upcoming election in 2024 could prove to be decisive in our future relationship with Dhaka. Sources do indicate the feasibility of the US attempting to play different cards in Bangladesh to boost alternative political elements, for the sake of countering China. The short-term effect of such a policy would be inimical to our interests.

At the end of 2023, a most significant visit by the Indian External Affairs Minister was underway instead of the annual summit with Russia. India needs the US, but it equally needs Russia, a nation with whom we have experienced a reliable relationship. The US secures its interests against China by befriending and maintaining strong contacts with India. India does the same, the only difference here is that we need to do so with two nations – both Russia and the US. It is now clearly established that friendship with only one is furthest from Indian interests.

The writer is a Member of the National Disaster Management Authority. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.

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