India’s leadership of G20: The future is now

When a financial crisis derailed Southeast Asian states in the 1990s, a grouping of G20 nations was formed in 1999 to foster global economic stability and sustainable growth. Today, in a world where the potency of the UN and international multilateral agencies have been found wanting, there are greater expectations from modern groupings such as the G20 – which is more inclusive than G7 and less constrained by regional narratives. The world is also more complex than in the 1990s: the economic and political fallout of the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to guide a divided world, China’s influence grows despite its own waning economy, a doubtful American hegemon wavers, the long-term impact of the pandemic affects the economy of nations et al. Thus, a continuing global, political and economic uncertainty has exacerbated challenges for the G20. So, when India took over the G20 presidency from Indonesia recently, greater expectations arose for 2023. In a partisan world of post-Cold War divisionism, the role of the G20 and India’s role by extension will remain constrained by how much can be done. However, it cannot be overemphasized that India – with its deft non-partisan political position in the Russia-Ukraine war, market potential and levelheaded maturity in foreign policy pronouncements – is well placed to take on the mantle of leadership and make a difference in the way the G20 functions in the post-pandemic world order. There are a few key areas that could be prioritised as ones with the potential for change and resolution. Geopolitics: Prime Minister Narendra Modi made possibly the most impactful political statement last year in a global forum when he said that this was ‘not an era for war’. In the last year, as the world was divided on Ukraine and Russia – the most critical conflict affecting the world – two names were often discussed as the possible arbiters or neutral peacemakers. One was China and the other was India. China lit up too many fires across the South China sea, the Himalayas, and it partially calibrated its steps in due course. India was one important power which stood up to NATO railroading but didn’t side either with Putin’s invasion of a sovereign country. On the issue of China, India has walked the talk and emerged as a responsible power. Despite the constant border provocations, New Delhi has sent out a clear message to Beijing that peace and security along the frontier were necessary for the development of ties. On the geopolitics front, India’s approach has focused on steering differences towards dialogue and fashion-inclusive growth through consensus on governance imperatives. The discourse in international politics – led by the rivalry of the two biggest powers, the US and China – has been dominated by geopolitics and security. India’s focus on governance and growth will enable the developing south to participate more productively through a greater say in multilateral forums. Governance: Amongst the growing economies, India has proved to be a stable democracy, albeit with a slow but consistent governance mechanism that has delivered on some of the key indicators of development. India’s focus on developing digital infrastructure to address the needs of the lowest common denominator, including digital access to bank accounts across the country and the potential of its impact is a marker for developing nations that face such challenges. A stable democracy such as India is built around sound governance that embraces responses to climate crises, pandemics and digital infrastructure growth. It was the effectiveness and reach of the Aarogya Setu platform, for instance, that helped the nation carry out a successful vaccination platform, despite initial hiccups and the handicaps of physical logistics and haphazard demographic architecture in a populous country. The slowness of the vaccination campaign copped much criticism in the first year of the pandemic. Ironically, its long-term success against COVID-19 is exemplary, as compared to many countries and could now become India’s gift to the world. Climate, energy and health The global energy crisis, just like the financial crisis, has its beginnings in the Western developed world. The energy crisis – brought about by unregulated consumption and loose governance – is now being sought to be addressed by laying the responsibility at the door of developing nations that need energy for growth. For instance, in the first two days of January this year, the average Briton was already responsible for more carbon dioxide emissions than someone from the Democratic Republic of the Congo would produce in an entire year, according to an analysis by the Center for Global Development (CGD). The developed nations have often indulged in ‘northspeak’ – which denotes laying down unilateral rules connecting financial aid with use of fossil fuels in poorer countries. As the fourth largest carbon emitter in the world, India has been under pressure on reducing energy consumption. But the reality is that its per capita consumption is lower than all major world economies. This is an opportunity for India as the leader of the G20 to set the agenda for discussions among differing parties on key issues such as energy and health. After setting out its commitment to reduce energy consumption by 2030, India has already set the ball rolling by demanding $1tn (£722bn) in climate finance as soon as possible and will monitor climate action and its financing. Prime Minister Modi has shrewdly adopted a middle path that demonstrates commitment to climate change without conceding national economic interests. The adoption of a middle ground is likely to be India’s mantra in its G20 leadership – advocacy of a canny commitment to the cause. Amitabh Kant, India’s G20 Sherpa, believes that this presidency is a transformative one. “So far, we were getting agenda items from the developed world, we were reacting to them. This is the first time since independence that we are able to set out our own agenda and we can tell our narrative,” believes Kant. On the healthcare front, India has developed low-cost, inclusive health infrastructure including Ayushman Bharat, vaccine architecture, pharma and the National Digital Health Mission. This brings me to compare two large economies and their delivery systems in the past two years. China is today wracked by the re-emergence of Covid and the continuance of lockdowns that have derailed expectations of growth in the country, whereas a noisy, battling, criticism-prone democracy has done considerably better on health and governance parameters. China in the room For a decade, China has been trying to focus on strategic technology which benefits its long-term expansion goals. This puts China at odds with the West on expectations of global peace and stability. The Chinese economy has been undergoing a difficult period amidst lockdowns, supply chain interruptions, rising costs and labour unrest. There is a real threat of back offices moving away from China. Apple, which was solely reliant on China, has announced plans to diversify its production, with new factories in India and Vietnam. On the other hand, the International Monetary Fund describes the Indian economy as a “bright spot” amid a global economic slowdown. Other back offices will find cheaper places to diversify as China grows more expensive and politically difficult to operate in. In such a scenario, India’s principle of “vasudhaiva kutumbakam”, a Sanskrit phrase that means “the world is one family” is an emphatic declaration of inclusivity and dialogue. As part of its presidency, India plans to hold 200 meetings of different G20 tracks in cities across the country—making Indian states stakeholders in New Delhi’s global engagement. The meetings will define how much India would achieve by the end of the year. The current complex geopolitical and economic situation will make it a challenge for India to shape a consensus towards pressing international issues. Besides, there are subjects such as climate and energy which are unlikely to bring about consensus in the intransigent dialogue between the global north and south. However, India is in a position to help the north to become more understanding of the south’s needs as well as highlight the responsibilities of the south. India has already set its targets to get 50 per cent of its energy from renewable resources and reduce total projected carbon emissions by one billion tonnes by 2030. The one constructive impression India might like to leave behind at the end of its presidency in 2023 is that capable governance on health, digitisation, infrastructure, energy security can help connect nations better. It would also look to lay the foundations of dialogue for equal exchanges between nations, prod multilateral institutions to onboard less powerful nations which then helps address disputes equitably and ensure a more inclusive commitment to global peace. The leadership of G20 is India’s opportunity to set a global narrative of “vasudhaiva kutumbakam.” G20 is India’s moment and the future is now. The writer is the author of ‘Watershed 1967: India’s Forgotten Victory over China’. His fortnightly column for FirstPost — ‘Beyond The Lines’ — covers military history, strategic issues, international affairs and policy-business challenges. Views expressed are personal. 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