India rethinks security roadmap as Bhutan PM Lotay Tshering makes a bizarre pro-China comment on Doklam

On 17 December 2021, Prime Minister Lotay Tshering of Bhutan  tweeted his happiness — “Overjoyed to hear His Majesty pronounce Your Excellency Modiji’s @narendramodi name for the highest civilian decoration, Order of the Druk Gyalpo” — indicating the depth of bilateral ties India and Bhutan shared. Whether it is China’s ambitious territorial desires or the merciless power of COVID-19, India has always stood by Bhutan as a caring neighbour, addressing Thimphu’s concerns. However, one year, three months, and 12 days after sending out the tweet expressing his happiness over his Indian counterpart receiving Bhutan’s highest civilian honour, Prime Minister Tshering contradicted himself in an interview with a Belgian newspaper. He stated that China has an equal say over the disputed territory of Doklam, which is exactly different from what he said in 2019 when he stated that neither side should do anything “unilaterally”. Bhutan-China bilateral ties Bhutan, also referred to as the Himalayan Kingdom, has maintained a historically robust and multifaceted relationship with India, spanning cultural, political, economic and military spheres. Conversely, Bhutan’s interactions with Beijing have been notably intricate. Before 1959, Bhutan lacked formal diplomatic ties with China. However, during the 1960s and 1970s, China endeavoured to establish diplomatic relations with Bhutan, which was met with firm opposition from Thimphu due to ongoing border disputes between the two nations. Subsequently, Bhutan adopted a more conciliatory stance, leading to negotiations on the border dispute since 1984. Despite limited progress, the signing of a bilateral agreement in 1996 to uphold peace and stability in the border regions was a significant development. The official recognition of Bhutan as a sovereign state by China in 2002 marked a noteworthy milestone, paving the way for the establishment of formal diplomatic ties, ultimately realised in 2008. Bhutan found itself in a complex situation following the annexation of Tibet by the Chinese in 1951, which brought China in as its new neighbour. This development further complicated the unresolved boundary issues between Tibet and Bhutan, which persist to this day. There existed a feeling of distrust in Bhutan vis-a-vis its ties with China for a long time but in recent years Thimphu has fairly increased its engagement with China. Despite the signing of multiple agreements on various fronts as a result of official diplomatic ties, the resolution of the border issue remained pending. This issue was further complicated in 2017 when a military standoff between India and China erupted over the Bhutan-China border dispute at Doklam. However, on 14 October 2021, Bhutanese foreign minister Lyonpo Tandi Dorji and China’s assistant minister of foreign affairs Wu Jianghao signed an MoU on the Three-Step Roadmap for expediting the Bhutan-China boundary negotiations. Before that, the negotiation lasted for nearly 40 years. “During the 10th Expert Group Meeting in Kunming in April this year, the two sides agreed on a Three-Step Roadmap that will build on the 1988 Guiding Principles and help to expedite the ongoing boundary negotiations. The Memorandum of Understanding on the Three-Step Roadmap will provide a fresh impetus to the Boundary Talks. It is expected that the implementation of this Roadmap in a spirit of goodwill, understanding and accommodation will bring the boundary negotiations to a successful conclusion that is acceptable to both sides,” a  press release from Bhutan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and External Affairs said. The pace at which communication between Bhutan and China accelerated following the endorsement of the Three-Step Roadmap in 2021 is unmissable. In October last year, then Chinese Ambassador to India Sun Weidong made a three-day trip to Bhutan, engaging in dialogue with Bhutan’s King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck, Prime Minister Tshering, Foreign Minister Tandi Dorji and others. Moreover, in January this year, representatives from both nations convened in Kunming for the 11th meeting as part of the treaty to expedite boundary discussions to reach a resolution soon. The outcome of these meetings and Bhutan’s ability to safeguard its rightful territory against China’s multifarious misunderstandings and complexities can only be ascertained in the future. Is Bhutan tilting? Geographically the tiny kingdom of Bhutan is sandwiched between India and China making it a landlocked country. Its unique location as it has China to its north and India to its south, east and west often drags the country into geopolitical situations where it finds it tough to maintain a neutral stance. It is unclear what precisely prompted Prime Minister Tshering’s remarks on Doklam. Nevertheless, his comments provide a distinct signal that Chinese diplomatic efforts are gaining traction in shaping Bhutan’s perceptions of its neighbours. Prime Minister Tshering’s latest remarks to the Belgian daily La Libre have unequivocally signaled that the ties between India, Bhutan, and China, which were mostly 2 (India and Bhutan) + 1 (China), have dramatically changed to 1 (India) + 1 (China) + 1 (Bhutan), with China having the clear advantage of tilting the ties towards Beijing right under India’s nose. Given the enormous pressure that China can exert, it would be unwise to expect Bhutan to resist it for eternity, especially when India herself has limited resources to come to the aid of Bhutan. “Doklam is a junction point between India, China and Bhutan. It is not up to Bhutan alone to solve the problem. We are three. There is no big or small country, there are three equal countries, each counting for a third,” Prime Minister Tshering told the Belgian newspaper. The recent comments made by the Bhutanese prime minister have further complicated the already delicate relations between India and China, which are characterised by a range of issues spanning trade, border disputes and geopolitical rivalry. The Indian government now faces the challenge of devising an appropriate response to Prime Minister Tshering’s remarks. The options before New Delhi include punitive measures to signal its displeasure or strategic silence to avoid escalation and monitor the situation closely. The decision on how to react will have significant implications for India’s regional standing and its relations with its immediate neighbours, as well as China’s strategic calculus in the region. Although Prime Minister Tshering’s recent remarks may appear favourable to Beijing, it is important to note that India has remained Bhutan’s largest and most important trading partner since Thimphu began its planned development efforts in the 1960s. According to available data, India accounted for 82 per cent of Bhutan’s total external trade including electricity, and 77 per cent of its total trade without electricity in 2020. Furthermore, India has consistently supported Bhutan’s Five-Year Plans since their inception in 1961, with India fully funding two of the 10 completed Five-Year Plans. India’s contributions to Bhutan’s Five-Year Plans run into crores of rupees, with allocations also being made to projects beyond the scope of these plans. India’s contribution to Bhutan’s infrastructure development has been extensive, covering key sectors such as energy, transportation, communication, and mining. Some of the major projects supported by New Delhi include the Tala Hydroelectric Project with a capacity of 1020 MW, the Chukha Hydroelectric Project with a capacity of 336 MW, the Kurichhu Hydroelectric Project with a capacity of 60 MW, the Penden cement plant, the Paro airport, the Bhutan Broadcasting Station, the development of important roads and highways, the establishment of a power transmission and distribution system, the installation of an Indo-Bhutan Microwave Link, and the exploration of mineral resources through survey and mapping. India’s generous support has been instrumental in driving Bhutan’s economic growth and improving the quality of life of its people. It is unlikely that India will immediately undertake any significant measures against Bhutan affecting the ties that witnessed the Golden Jubilee of the establishment of formal diplomatic relations between the two countries in 2018, despite possessing the capability to do so on an economic level. Taking uncalculated and severe actions would not only reveal India’s apprehension but also embolden China to further intervene in India-Bhutan relations. India must comprehend the predicament from Bhutan’s perspective, given that Bhutan is forced to grapple with a powerful hegemon such as China. It is only natural that Bhutan would prioritise its security before considering India. Bhutan’s sole recourse is to bide its time, even if it entails ignoring Chinese encroachments on its territory. For now, Prime Minister Tshering has not completely blocked out India from the negotiation process when he said — “We are three” — but that should not be any consolation for India as China is bound to exploit the matter further whenever it needs to divert attention from something else. Tactically speaking the buffer called Bhutan has disappeared for India and it should get ready to deal with China at another front on its border. The disputed zone There is ambiguity regarding the precise length of the border between Bhutan and China, as some foreign affairs experts estimate it to be 477 kilometres, while China asserts that it extends over 600 kilometres. Furthermore, while experts contend that China lays claim to approximately 764 square kilometres of Bhutanese territory, China measures the contested region to be around 5,000 square kilometres. As per the Global Times, five areas along the border in Southwest China’s Xizang Autonomous Region, including Yadong, Kangmar, and Lhozhag, are the subject of dispute between Bhutan and China. According to the Chinese state-owned newspaper, India should not be troubled by China’s claim to the entirety of Doklam, as China is invoking a historical agreement between China and the UK, signed during the Qing dynasty’s rule over Sikkim and Tibet, to legitimise its stance. Tricky trap for India India has hitherto relied on the potency of its long-standing and meaningful relationship with Bhutan, with the expectation that the Himalayan Kingdom will demonstrate fortitude in protecting its land and in turn, contribute indirectly towards India’s interests. However, given the recent turn of events and China’s unrelenting aspirations for territorial aggrandisement, such an approach is bound to transform. 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