India-Nepal ties: How the visit of PM Dahal 'Prachanda' to New Delhi is becoming a political football

Never before since the introduction of multiparty democracy in Nepal have the dates for a visit of its Prime Minister – currently Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) – been such a subject of speculation and change. The calendar of PM Modi is extremely packed due to elections in Karnataka, G7 and Quad summits abroad. Mr Dahal has expanded his cabinet eight times and with his swap of coalitions approved two common minimum programmes but had failed to appoint a Foreign Minister which was to be filled by the single largest Nepali Congress party. He could not be nominated due to squabbling over portfolios within the faction-riven NC. The other camp is led by stalwarts Shekhar Koirala and Gagan Thapa, now that Ram Chandra Paudel has been elevated to President. NP Saud was sworn in on 16 April as Foreign Minister. The original dates for the India visit were in mid-March when Mr Dahal chose not to go to China for the BRI Boao Forum but make India first; then changed to mid-April which slipped  to end-April then  to mid-May after Karnataka elections and  in between two G20 meets and finally pushed to June in what PTI Kathmandu reported as ‘ internal reasons’, presumably budget presentation on 29 May and impact of recent by-election losses on stability of government.  What is near  certain though is that Prachanda’s second state visit on his third term as PM will happen. Sections of the NC are cross with the Modi government for not inviting late Prime Minister Sushil Koirala on a state visit. For Nepali Prime Ministers an invitation from the Indian Prime Minister for a state visit is paramount to establish his bonafides. Mr Saud is a Deuba loyalist from Kanchanpur constituency and was irrigation minister in the Sushil Koirala cabinet. His immediate task is to prioritise issues for the agenda of the visit as he has already begun consulting his advisors on it. The cabinet posts have been distributed between the eight parties supporting the coalition. The Koirala-Thapa group is yet to submit its nominees. Other cabinet hopefuls are Janata Samajwadi Party leader Upendra Yadav whose genius to find a berth in any government is legend. On 23 April he won the parliamentary seat from the Bara constituency to avenge his humiliating defeat in the last general elections. The other two seats in the byelections were won easily by Rashtriya Swatantra Party’s Ravi Lamichhane and Swornim Wagle. Two of three candidates from the Dahal-Deuba coalition lost despite three former Prime Ministers campaigning for them. The message from the by-election is that people have lost confidence in old guard parties and vote transfer in the coalition is still not happening. Wagle’s victory from the NC stronghold of Tanahun was a big shock. Mr Dahal met to congratulate Lamichhane to ensure his outside support to his government. RSP has emerged as the fourth largest party with 22 lawmakers; extremely popular for its ‘extra-sanitised’ image but bereft of any ideology. Lamichhane was catapulted to deputy prime minister and home minister but had to resign due to allegations of fraud in multiple cases of dual passport. As home minister, Lamichhane awarded a contract to a foreign firm Advantage International for  compiling national identity cards in violation of rules and laws and is being investigated by PMO and Commission for Investigation of Abuse and Authority. It seems the establishment is gunning for him. The Kathmandu Post,   on 10 April, mentioned some items for the Dahal visit. Some of these are an  agreement for construction of 136 km Raxaul -Kathmandu railway line whose detailed project report was prepared by the Konkan Railway Corporation Limited. The Joint Working Group in Railway Cooperation is meeting under the auspices of Nepal’s Ministry of Physical Infrastructure and Transport. The rail connection will be profoundly strategic in putting Nepal’s economy on a fast track. Much before India figured on rail connectivity, China had pledged to extend the railway from Kirung to Kathmandu for which more than one feasibility study was done almost a decade ago under BRI/China-Nepal Economic Corridor. The railway line was to be extended to the Indian border for Chinese goods to reach the lucrative Indian market in the Indo-Gangetic plains. Extreme geological difficulty was expressed in realising this ambitious plan notwithstanding its colossal impact on the environment. The cost estimate ran into USD 4 to 5 billion and despite the tall pledges made by President Xi Jinping in 2019, no funds have materialised. After the collapse of the pro-China Left alliance in 2018, Beijing’s ardour for BRI has dampened considerably. Once India decides to actually construct the railway, it will be extremely wary of the North-South rail line. It will concretise India’s fears - as they did in 1960  after New Delhi built the Raxaul-Kathmandu Tribhuvan Rajpath – of China building the Kodari-Kathmandu Mahendra Rajpath. India may seek some assurance to prevent repeat of the 1960 fait accompli. A Nepali official said: “We expect India to build the road with a grant”. The joint technical meeting is expected to discuss the financial arrangements. A Nepali journalist told the author that China is very unlikely to build the North-South rail line. The other area of investment is hydropower where India and Nepal could hope to replicate the Bhutan success story. A number of new projects- in the Karnali (480 MW) and Lower Arun (669 MW) could be discussed. At the Kathmandu power summit held in mid-April a number of bilateral issues were raised like India denying full access to its power market, reservation to buy power from projects in which Chinese are involved and Nepal being able to sell power only from a project with at least 51 per cent stake of an Indian firm or from Nepal Electricity Authority. At present, Nepal can sell 452 MW from 10 power projects but wants to sell 1000 MW. Nepal is simply not Bhutan, as Nepalese love to say. On the border issue, Nepal-India Boundary Working Group will seek regular meetings though Kathmandu  has unilaterally resolved the Kalapani-Lipulekh-Limpiyadhura dispute by incorporating these areas in its maps sans possession. Finalisation of air routes to Nepal’s new China-built international airports at Pokhara and Bhairawa will be urged. Import of 300,000 tonnes of wheat from India, supply of chemical fertilisers and agreement for cross-border digital payment using e-wallet. Indian subsidised fertilisers are being smuggled into Nepal though Kathmandu wants New Delhi  to help it set up a gas pipeline and fertiliser manufacturing plant which will cost USD 500 million and USD 1.25 billion over five years. Other outstanding issues relate to trade, transit and economy. It seems Nepal will have to bury its chagrin over the review of the Eminent Persons Group report. Mr Dahal may not like to rake up issues that will upset the neighbour. Mr Dahal will raise his pet talking point – US-China-India and how Nepal can benefit from two largest growing economies. Agniveer is a thorny issue on which Nepal has maintained a studied silence given no government and cabinet meetings have taken place since the last Deuba government  chose to pass the buck to the newly elected government. In June it will be one year since India announced the four-year armed forces recruitment for Personnel Below Officer Rank. There are mixed feelings over Agniveer. One view is that  four year recruitment is better than no recruitment – which has not happened for the last three years. The other is that highly trained soldiers on demobilisation will get inducted into the market place and could be a threat to society. Kathmandu grapevine indicates that Mr Dahal and Mr Saud will discuss Agniveer with their counterparts this month and will seek exemption from Agnipath scheme. Will Modi make an exception to keep alive the strategic bonding between Janjatis (Gorkhas) who join the elite Indian Army Gorkha Brigade and cultivate the extraordinarily large pro-India constituency of ex-servicemen whose loyalty to India was once allegedly in doubt. Today, not an iota of suspicion exists over it. The Nepali Gorkhas were never more committed than today to the Indian tricolour. The writer is a retired army veteran. Views expressed are personal. Read all the  Latest News,  Trending News,  Cricket News,  Bollywood News, India News and  Entertainment News here. 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