Why India must continue its 'Neighbourhood First' policy despite regime change in Maldives

The recently concluded presidential elections in Maldives have created a cause of concern for India. The incumbent Ibrahim Mohamed Solih lost to the opposition candidate Mohamed Muizzu. These elections were not just a shift of power from one party to another but also regarded as a referendum to decide India’s and China’s influence in the South Asian country. Solih who became the president in 2018 brought Maldives closer to India with his India First policy by reversing the anti-India approach of the previous president Abdulla Yameen. The India-Maldives relations witnessed an upswing in Solih’s five year-term. The internal political conflict between Solih and Yameen led to the latter’s arrest and disqualification from contesting polls. However, Yameen and his supporters managed to create an anti-Solih and anti-India atmosphere with their sustained India Out campaign. With Muizzu, who is considered as Yameen’s proxy, emerging as the winner in the presidential polls, it is expected that now Maldives will tilt more towards China. However, it would be pertinent to analyse if this is a setback for India’s engagements with Maldives. Victory of a pro-China candidate is mostly considered through the prism of geopolitics where China would now be able to challenge India’s carefully built ties with Maldives. India’s outreach to Maldives in the past few years was conditioned by the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific Region. India, as a major power in the Indian Ocean component of the Indo-Pacific, made gains by having a friendly regime in Maldives. However, India’s engagements with Maldives were not restricted in the strategic area alone. India was mindful of building ties with Maldives in diversified areas. India has positioned itself as Maldives’s close partner in the areas of climate change, infrastructure development and capacity building. Maldives, one of the most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change and India, one of the leading advocates of renewable energy, have cooperation in the renewable energy sector. India is assisting Maldives in reducing its dependence on fossil fuel energy. Under the principle of One Sun, One World, One Grid, India and Maldives have two Memoranda of Understanding, signed in April 2022, on energy cooperation and transmission interconnection. India is also involved in the construction of Greater Malé Connectivity Project, a 6.74 km-long bridge and causeway link. This is the largest civilian infrastructure project funded by India through a $400 million Line of Credit and $100 million grant. Further, the National Centre for Good Governance (NCGG), an autonomous institution under Government of India in partnership with the Ministry of External Affairs is carrying out training programmes for Maldivian civil servants. This training is aimed at equipping the Maldivian civil servants with skill to navigate in an interconnected and complex world. For Maldives’ part it would do well to avoid a knee-jerk reaction and distance itself from India. Muizzu may soon realise that sustaining a targeted campaign against a particular country may not yield favourable returns in the long run. While China’s hand was visible in creating an anti-India campaign, Muizzu should weigh his options carefully before going into China’s tight embrace. There are two reasons for this. Firstly, China’s own economy is in a bad shape at the moment. The long-dragging real estate crisis has put financial institutions under pressure. The Chinese economy, over-reliant on real estate and industrial sectors, is now facing a prospect of GDP growth slowing. China’s GDP growth rate is expected to fall below 5 per cent should the economic slowdown continue. China’s overall debt has also been increasing. In the past about one decade China’s debt burden has grown nine fold. The Aging population and increasing unemployment are only exacerbating China’s economic woes. Due to the bad shape of its economy China recently rejected Pakistan’s request to invest in fresh Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects. Secondly, continuing from the previous point, while expanding its outreach through the BRI, China has caused a number of countries to become debt-ridden under the impression of economic development. China’s debt-trap diplomacy has resulted in smaller and weaker economies going bankrupt. Maldives has been among those countries that have suffered financial difficulties under China’s debt-trap diplomacy. During Yameen’s presidency Maldives’ debt to China was around one-fifth of the former’s GDP. As of 2022, Maldives debt to China was estimated to be $3.4 billion, a large sum for a small country. The new political dispensation in Maldives needs to consider the adverse consequences of being part of sharp geopolitical overtures at the cost of disregarding economic capabilities and climate change challenges, a major concern for Maldives. India, for its part, can consider China’s template to its own advantage. Even when Maldives was getting closer to India, China’s influence in the island country did not diminish. China remained deeply entrenched in Maldives’ economy. India is a responsible stakeholder in not only Maldives’ security but also economy and infrastructure development. India has also been the first responder in the neighbourhood during economic crisis as well as at the time of natural calamities, a role which China is unlikely to undertake. India should continue engaging with Maldives in all the areas customised to cater Maldives’ specific needs. Prioritising Maldives’ requirements is something that India would care for more than China. The author is a political analyst and researcher based in Vadodara. His areas of specialisation include international relations, foreign policy and geopolitics. He tweets @NiranjanMarjani. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.

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