In Myanmar, fight between rebels and military heralds drone wars in the East

Etymologically speaking the origin of the word drone can perhaps be traced to—among other medieval languages—the Middle English word “drounen” which means to bellow or roar. Middle English is quite simply the form of the English language that was spoken in England after the Norman Conquest of 1066 and one which continued until the late 15th century. Incidentally, its prevalence can also be attributed to the Old Norse that had its moorings in the Viking population that had settled in northern Britain. In modern parlance, the word “drone” is simply “unmanned aerial vehicle” (UAV) or “unmanned aerial combat vehicle” (UACV). There are certain technical differences: UAVs need to have autonomous flight capabilities, whereas drones do not. The word “drone” has become very popular in the last couple of decades, especially after the United States began using it effectively against the Islamic State and its affiliates in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan and such other places where it was difficult for it to launch conventional operations. The list of Islamist terrorists that have been killed in drone strikes is reads like a who’s-who and some of the important terror actors that have died as a result of the “drone war” includes Akhtar Md. Mansour, the second supreme leader of the Afghan Taliban, Baitullah Mehsud who was one of the founders and a leading member of the Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan and Maher al-Agal, the leader of the Islamic State in Syria. But the most important spectacular drone strike hitherto—in the opinion of this author—was the manner in which Al Qaeda leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri was killed in Kabul. It was a textbook kill and as this author has written earlier in this column, the operation needs to be closely studied and replicated by Indian security agencies, especially as this author feels that especially the Indian army is particularly capable of carrying out such strikes. On 31 July 2022 the United States fired two AGM-114 Hellfire missiles at al-Zawahiri while he was standing outside on the balcony of his safe house in Kabul. Al-Zawahiri was killed, but the other occupants of the house were unharmed. The Hellfire variant is widely considered to have been the “Romeo 9X”, or a variant that is otherwise known as the “Ninja bomb” and the “Flying Ginsu”. It is reportedly armed with blades instead of explosives in its warhead; the accent being to cause little or no collateral damage. The civil war in Myanmar after the 1 February 2021 military takeover is not only become “curiouser and curiouser”, but of late a “tale of drone wars”. Most security analysts and students of traditional security (the latter of the hue of this author) have not been caught by surprise at this turn of events. Indeed as the strife progresses in the “Land of Jade”, the tactics of the People’s Defence Force (PDF) is largely becoming long-range and to avoid frontal attacks. To that end, and in order to strike at the Myanmar Army with effect the PDF has formed what it calls the “Wings of the Irrawaddy”, its drone unit. Indeed, despite the fact that the PDF’s drone arm has run into problems as a result of non-availability of spare parts, reports have stated that the “Wings of the Irrawaddy” carried out about 95 drone attacks against the Myanmar army in 2022, killing about 100-120 cadres of the Tatmadaw. In February 2023, the Chin National Army (CNA) carried out several drone attacks on Thantlang, a hamlet located on the southern edge of Chin State, one which houses a Myanmar Army outpost. Thantlang is too close to comfort to Mizoram and there have been stray reports that some damage have been caused to Mizo villages close to the Indo-Myanmar border. It is also being wondered as to how a rag-tag army such as the CNA was able to acquire such “niche technology”. Preliminary research seems to state that it is being supplied by the West via Thailand. But since there has been no report of air-dropping, it is being questioned as to how the drone consignments are making their way through the “killing fields” of Myanmar. But the fact remains that the drone war that is being waged in Myanmar is achieving decisive gains for the National Unity Government’s People’s Defence Force. Indeed, surprise is being expressed as to capabilities of the CNA with a sudden spurt in armed (drone) activity post the imposition of martial law on seven townships in the Chin state. An interesting anecdote in the drone war pertains to a drone attack on a United National Liberation Front (UNLF) camp on 9 February 2023. UNLF is a Manipur Valley Based Insurgent Group (VBIGs) and it has along with its sister organisation in the Coordination Committee that are billeted in the Central and the Northern Clusters of Sagaing Division (the Southern Cluster seems to have been deserted fearing “attacks” from Indian security forces post the attack on Senam camp in January 2022) have come into a tacit agreement with the Tatmadaw after the military takeover. The drone attack on the UNLF camp in Thongren on the occasion of the 36th Raising Day of the Manipur People’s Army (UNLF’s armed wing) which was formed on 9 February 1987 was, therefore, a matter of great speculation for the Indian security forces. This was particularly so as there was a reliable report that three important armed leaders of the Manipur People’s Army including Chouba, Khongnangthaba and Kangleipuba and six other UNLF cadres were seriously injured in the attack. A cadre of the Manipur Naga Revolutionary Front, an organisation that has close ties with the UNLF and the People’s Liberation Army (Manipur) was reportedly killed in the drone attack. The grapevine that got abuzz in Indian security circles was because of a rumour that the drone attack was carried out by the Myanmar army which as aforesaid has an agreement with the VBIGs. As a matter of fact, it came, albeit briefly as wondrous news for observers of Indo-Myanmar relationship. After all, much of India’s fortunes—economic and security—would be shaped with the destruction of the last bastion of India’s North East insurgency and were the Myanmar army to be finally heeding to Indian request to oust the North East Indian insurgents. But the target of the UAV attack turned out to be that of a drone that had gone haywire. It was either a CNA drone seeking out a Myanmar army camp or a Myanmar army drone hunting for a PDF camp. The moral of the story is that collateral damage can happen, the precision kill that led AGM-114 Hellfire missiles to neutralise al-Zawahiri notwithstanding. Indeed, it is wondered whether “wonky drones” that deliberately goes berserk and causes “acceptable damage” cannot become the new stratagem of tacticians that are seeking courses of action that will become music to Indian ears. The author is a conflict theorist and author. Views expressed are personal. Read all the Latest News , Trending News , Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.