How Russia-Ukraine war and truce bring a gift of history for both the Asian giants- India, China

It is not about the political morals of Ukraine having to stand by its western defenders and defence suppliers at the height of the continuing war with Russia. Instead, if it has decided to work on the Chinese proposal for signing a truce (if not a peace pact) with Russia, as it would not be able to meet all of Moscow’s demands, which are anyway not in its realms from the beginning. For the war to end and peace to return, Russia would insist on Ukraine taking a no-NATO pledge. In return, Russia will have to withdraw from all Ukrainian territory captured in the war since February last year, if not on earlier occasions. The latter especially is easier said than done, but only by doing so can Moscow reassure the world that its real intent was to take all of Ukraine. Such a course would also send out more wrong signals that President Vladimir Putin is to recreate the forgotten Soviet Union, by annexing all those lost territories that now form separate sovereign nations. There is a further hitch. Should Russia withdraw from Ukraine, whatever the reason, it would be a verifiable reality on the ground. The expectations are that Moscow would not resort to yet another military adventurism or mis-adventurism. The same cannot be said about Ukraine’s promise, if any, on not joining NATO, later, if not now. Whoever the facilitator, China, India or another, they should also be looking for Ukraine’s ‘binding pledges’ that would make Russia feel safe and secure, now and later.     Sanctions, reparations It is quite possible, Russia, in the case of ending the war, or withdrawing from Ukraine or whatever term it agrees with the latter, will also expect the US-led West withdraw all sanctions, or at least most sanctions, especially of the economic kind, linked to the Ukraine War as is known for the past one year. After all, many of these sanctions are linked to the Ukraine War of the past year. Hence, if there is no war, rather truce or permanent peace, there should be no sanctions, either. So could be the Russian argument. The same argument would extend for the West to withdraw all statements and UN resolutions, calling for Russia to pay ‘war reparations’ to Ukraine. At a personal level and even otherwise, the Kremlin would want the case preferred against Putin before the International Criminal Court (ICC) withdrawn for good,  not that Moscow seems to care too much about it just now. Alternatively, Russia would have to settle for truce or peace with Ukraine first, and address its other concerns separately. The possibility of peace with Moscow would have been enough of a snub from Ukraine to its western backers that Russia and more so China may relish – whether or not its peace proposal becomes the key to an accord between the other two – that the US and its allies just cannot allow it to happen. It may be too much to anticipate the West, especially the US, imposing sanctions for Ukraine violating the ‘Code’. But it would be interesting to watch, if any peace pact involves Ukraine giving a written commitment that it would not seek NATO membership, which has been the bugbear for Russia to launch the war in the first place.  Or, what other guarantees of the kind can Ukraine give that would convince Russia for all times to come? ‘Worst joke’ or what It will hence be interesting to see how Russia conducts itself as it takes over as the UN Security Council chair by rotation for this month, April. The Kremlin said that it would ‘exercise all its rights’ in the role, and it remains to be seen what Moscow has to say if the West were to move some anti-Russia resolution in the UNSC, as it had done through the past year of the war. Having embarrassed Russia enough through at least two resolutions in the UN General Assembly and two others in the UNSC, which Russia’s veto-vote alone stalled from approval, the West could be expected to do more of it. It all depends on the signals from Ukraine on war and peace just now, or so it seems. For now, however, Ukraine has described Russia taking over as the monthly president of the UNSC as the ‘worst joke’ over April Fool’s Day. Hence, Ukraine wanted UNSC members to block the move. The US is blowing hot and cold on this issue of Russia’s presidency. On the one hand, the US urged Russia to ‘conduct itself professionally’ as UNSC chair for the month. At the same time, America’s Permanent Representative Linda Thomas-Greenfield also said that Russia should not be a permanent member. Her Russian counterpart Vasily Nebenzia, without reference to the US stand, said that he would discuss a “new world order” that was coming to “replace the uni-polar one”. It is another matter that Russia chaired what once used to be a 15-member super-cabinet of the world, not any more, while launching the Ukraine War in February last year.   India as a key ally In the midst of it all, Putin signed a new foreign policy for Russia, prioritising India and China as main allies, and the US as the main instigator of anti-Russian politics in the world.  In a 42-page updated foreign policy document, which is mostly a product of the Ukraine War, new foreign policy statement, Putin declared:  “Russia will continue to build up a particularly privileged strategic partnership with the Republic of India with a view to enhance and expand cooperation in all areas on a mutually beneficial basis and place special emphasis on increasing the volume of bilateral trade, strengthening investment and technological ties, and ensuring their resistance to destructive actions of unfriendly states and their alliances.” In this connection, he declared that the country is also prioritising its capacity and role within international groupings such as BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the RIC (Russia, India, China). While declaring that the US is the main perpetrator, etc., the document insisted that Moscow seeks “peaceful coexistence” and a “balance of interests” with Washington and also for Russia to maintain “strategic stability” with the US.  This raises the question that in the case of a Russo-American detente of the continuing Cold War kind, New Delhi alone may be the only possible facilitator, as Washington cannot accept Beijing in that role. Incidentally, at the more recent UNHRC session in Geneva, India once again abstained along with 16 other nations, for extending the one-year term of a ‘war crime probe’ by another year. Coming as it did weeks after Xi’s Moscow visit, China that had abstained last year, became one of the two nations to vote against the motion. The 47-member council passed the resolution with 28 voting in favour.  Gift of  history As yet another European nation, Finland got admittance into NATO and Chinese yuan became the highest sold international currency, replacing the US dollar, even if only for a month, in February, the current developments may point to a see-change in global affairs, going beyond what individual countries of the yore resolve or promise to be.  If the Ukraine War is a European proxy war, whenever it ends, will it trigger a trans-Atlantic fight for political supremacy?  For both the Asian giants- India and China, it’s a gift of history, just as their past marked a theft by history. The writer is a Chennai-based policy analyst and political commentator. Views are personal.   Read all the Latest News, Trending News,  Cricket News, Bollywood News, India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.