The BJP is set to form governments in the three Hindi heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, where the party secured 163 out of total 230 seats, 115 out of 199 total seats and 54 out of total 90 Assembly seats, respectively. In the southern state of Telangana, the INC has won with a majority of 64 out of total 90 Assembly seats and forming the government. While in MP, the BJP will form the government with a bigger majority this time, Rajasthan exhibited a case of ‘revolving door’ system of alternate tenures of government formation. Chhattisgarh in 2018 elected a non BJP government after three consecutive terms of government under the BJP. In 2018, the Congress stormed to power with 68 seats in the 90-member assembly. The BJP under Raman Singh’s leadership since the first Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections, in December 2003, was reduced to just 15 seats in 2018. But Chhattisgarh too saw the erosion of the Congress dispensation in 2023. Shivraj Singh Chouhan, the current BJP Chief Minister of MP and an exceptional regional leader retained his seat from Budhni by securing a resounding victory with a significant margin of 1,64,951 votes, thus solidifying the landslide victory of the BJP in the state. In a high voltage electoral drama, the incumbent CM Bhupesh Baghel of the Congress party in Chhattisgarh, who was also the second CM from the INC in the state after Ajit Jogi, somehow retained his Patan seat against his nephew Vijay Baghel from the BJP with a narrow margin of 20,000 votes. Both Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan’s electoral cases show strong waves of anti-incumbency. It came as a result of the charges of gross inefficiency and corruption against the incumbent Congress governments in both the states. In Rajasthan, only 9 out of 25 contesting ministers, including the Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot in the outgoing cabinet, managed to retain their constituencies. Whereas in the case of BJP, only 3 out of 7 contesting Members of Parliament lost the state Assembly elections. PM Narendra Modi while addressing the jubilant party workers at the BJP headquarters in New Delhi, on 3rd December, 2023, stated that the elections were won for ‘Aatmanirbharta’ and ‘Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikaas’. The highly intense, mathematically driven, first-past-the-post elections required unfaltering political strategizing, where BJP excelled than other political formations, especially the INC, under the astute leadership of PM Modi whose hard work and dedication is unflinching. Undeniably, BJP dominance in three Hindi belt states is a prelude to the general elections of 2024 where BJP is legitimately trying to keep the baton of power with Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate for the third consecutive term. The indelible saffron presence in these three states was evident ever since last parliamentary elections of 2019 where BJP won in Rajasthan 24 out 25 parliamentary seats with vote a share of 59.07 per cent; in MP, 28 out of 29 parliamentary seats with a vote share of 58 per cent; and in Chhattisgarh, 10 out of 11 Parliamentary seats with a vote share of 50.70 per cent. More than 50 per cent vote share is a brilliant performance beyond doubt. The Congress was routed by the BJP in the last two parliamentary general elections of 2014 and 2019 and the latter is striving to regain its political prominence nationwide again in 2024. The INC on the other hand, in the face of lack of coherent national agenda and effective leadership, internal decay manifesting in the form of intra-party feuds, inertia, and ineptitude has lost the battle much before the Lok Sabha elections of 2024. Irrefutable ‘Modi Magic’ sweeps it again With due credit to the astute regional leadership of the respective states, the irrefutable ‘Modi Magic’ works powerfully once again. Without prior declarations of the CM candidates for any of these States, BJP played it the best by allowing the elections to be under the aegis and leadership of PM Narendra Modi. And once again, with a strong ‘Hindutva’ overtone and development as the core strategy, Modi unfailingly works as the most prominent subliminal catalyst to sweep voting patterns in the favour of the saffron party. Narendra Modi’s dynamic once-in-a-generation leadership capabilities, his exceptionally strong campaigning skills, his impromptu data handling and most importantly the achievements of his government both at the Centre and the state levels, speak aloud of his successful prime-ministership for two consecutive terms which can be labelled as a ‘black swan’ event. Jefferies which is a leading global, full-service investment banking and capital markets firm states in August, 2023, that PM Modi continues to be the most popular political leader India has witnessed owing to a combination of factors which include solid implementation of social schemes, job oriented growth focus, strong communication and appeal to emotional factors etc. It further stated that the Opposition’s INDIA bloc of 26 parties may fail to make any significant dent in the NDA’s tally, even assuming 100 per cent vote transfer amongst these parties’ on the basis of the 2019 results. In another report published in the end of October, 2023, Jefferies declared that the equity markets in India are expected to witness a 25 per cent decline in their value if BJP loses upcoming Lok Sabha elections, however BJP losing the 2024 general elections is now evidently far from reality. PM Modi logically rose to the rank of the most celebrated national leader in the known trajectories of the post-Independence history of India. BJP is on an inclusivity and integration mode In an astonishing strike against the allegations of polarisation, BJP has managed nationally to win the favour of different castes/social groups, ideological adherents, demographic groups, and geographical areas that were not previously solidly BJP voters. The period following 2014, when the BJP came to power, can be considered to be the onset of a new single-party dominance in Indian politico-federal system that replaced the hegemonic Nehru-Gandhi family ruled “Congress system” that predominated the Indian political scenario since Independence. Two more states under ‘double engine’ government The BJP’s political victory will undoubtedly secure Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh for a much-improved implementation of development plans and schemes under a ‘double engine’ government, in the lines of MP which was experiencing a strong double engine growth already. This will definitely ensure streamlined development in the previously neglected regions. For example, BJP promises the completion of the delayed Eastern Rajasthan Canal Project (ERCP) in a time-bound manner in collaboration with the Centre. During an election rally, Modi stated Rajasthan to possess ‘trishakti’ and dedicated an array of developmental projects which include tourism facilities developed at Nathdwara (Rajsamand) under the Swadesh Darshan Scheme, a modern ‘tourist interpretation and cultural centre’ at Nathdwara and a permanent campus of the Indian Institute of Information Technology (IIIT) in Kota. The IMF projects India to hit $6 trillion in 2028. India registered 7.8 per cent growth in the first quarter of FY24, bolstered by the government’s capital expenditure expansion and domestic demand. By the next decade India is expected to grow to be one of the three top economies following the double engine approach which fosters all-round development, inclusivity and good governance. Today India is the fastest growing economy possessing robust democratic credentials and a mixed middle-income developing social market economy strategy. In Chhattisgarh, Union Home Minister Amit Shah releasing the party manifesto assured a fully developed Chhattisgarh in the coming five years. He further announced to start a ‘Krishi Unnati Yojana’ in which 21 quintals per acre of paddy procurement will be done at Rs 3100, to provide Rs 12000 per year to all the married women, to fill one lakh vacant government positions in two years, to construct 18 lakh houses under the Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana along with purified water supply to each and every household in Chhattisgarh, assistance of Rs 10,000 annually to landless farmers and establishment of new 500 Jan Ausadhi Kendra etc. If we examine the BJP manifesto, these are renewed ones and different from those of the Karnataka Assembly elections. A welcome change is the much-needed relief to the people in the lower income groups. Removing obstructions to private enterprise, building the required infrastructure and skilled workforce, and transforming India into a globally competitive economy have occupied a prominent place in the BJP’s manifesto so far, which will surely help the middle-income groups to a great extent. But by promising to bring budgetary relief in terms of subsidies by lowering the prices of high-profile items like LPG which hit hard on the poor and lower middle-income groups have played a vital role. This will leave them with more savings and disposable income which will be tantamount to incentivisation of consumption, thus boosting industrial growth, in turn. ( It was one of the suggestions by the present author in a previous article). With numerous standard deductions and tax bills, a person in such economic rungs feels the pinch the most. The McKinsey Global Institute, which defines India’s middle class as households with real annual disposable incomes between 200,000 and 1 million rupees ($3,606 to $18,031), predicts it to grow up to 583 million, thus constituting 41 per cent of the total population of India by 2025. Thus, garnering the support of the middle-income groups would be crucial for the BJP to enhance its vote share in the rural areas. The electoral tone is set in favour of BJP The latest Assembly election results can be seen as an indicator of voter sentiment ahead of the general elections of May, 2024. However the BJP must keep on strategizing more on securing an absolute majority in the concerned elections without being complacent. With certain electoral acceptances and intensified analysis and renewed strategy, the BJP can hold onto the baton of power again in 2024. An incisive understanding of the diverse local/regional dynamics of interests and the national-regional political synchronisation in different federal units of the Union of Bharat, where the BJP has excelled beyond doubt, will still be an aspect for the BJP to work on, in an reinvigorated manner.Needless to say, Modi’s two successful consecutive tenures as Prime Minister of Bharat leave us with no meaningful alternative to his leadership. The BJP’s claim to retain power in the 2024 general elections is legitimate, considering the all-round development and inclusivity it has successfully brought in. This will certainly create more synergy in the double-engine government, as now most of the states are under BJP rule. The author is a senior faculty in the Department of History, ARSD College, University of Delhi. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the Latest News , Trending News , Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.
In an astonishing strike against the allegations of polarisation, the BJP has managed nationally to win the favour of different castes and social groups, ideological adherents, demographic groups, and geographical areas that were not previously solidly its voters
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