How Gujarat landslide victory has set template for Modi 3.0

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is on the verge of creating history in 2027. If it wins the next Gujarat Assembly Election, it would win eight elections in a row and would surpass the CPM’s record of being in power for about 34 consecutive years. Remember, the BJP won despite changing three chief ministers in a span of six years. Bhupendra Patel was a first-term MLA when he became the chief minister last year. It shows BJP’s top brass and Prime Minister Narendra Modi never waver to take bold decisions in larger interests, even if it means stirring the hornet’s nest.

While replacing Rupani with Bhupendra Patel, the BJP also dropped the entire cabinet. This was a rare development in the country’s political history and political pundits who claimed this would be Modi’s and BJP’s nemesis, have been forced to eat crow. The BJP dropped at least 42 sitting MLAs during ticket distribution. That is, 23 per cent of the sitting MLAs were denied a ticket in this election.The BJP was clearly successful in dealing with the rebellion if any.

Prime Minister Modi is the rarest of the rare leaders who besides being a brilliant orator, a visionary, a strategist and a global statesman, is most importantly, a compassionate leader who is always present there, where needed the most. The ability to multi-task with excruciating and long hours of relentless hard work, makes Narendra Modi, the invincible political institution he has come to signify.

Amidst his various commitments, Modi visited the Morbi bridge tragedy site and personally oversaw the relief and rehabilitation works, rather than leaving the entire exercise merely to the state administration. The Gujarat elections are seen to be the start of the run-up to the 2024 General Election, where Prime Minister Modi will be seeking a third term and needless to add, the Modi juggernaut has only gotten more powerful and invincible. The BJP is in pole position to win Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Karnataka and a host of other smaller states which are going to the polls in 2023, ahead of the General Election, in 2024, given the massive momentum in Prime Minister Modi’s favour.

This time, BJP won Dariapur in Ahmedabad district, which has over 46 per cent Muslim population. Congress had Dariapur in its kitty for the last 10 years. Hence, for those who accuse the BJP of polarising voters on communal lines, the fact that BJP won a solid 17 out of the 19 Muslim dominant seats in Gujarat, is a vindication of Prime Minister Modi’s Gujarat model, which spells inclusivity and growth with equity. Suffice is to say that the Gujarat victory has set the template for a more powerful Modi 3.0.

The Patidar community is back with BJP and became a decisive factor in the Narendra Modi tsunami of 156 seats in Gujarat. Patidars have always had the key to who forms the government. Of the 182 seats in Gujarat, the Patidars comprise 15-16 per cent of Gujarat’s electorate and hold influence in over 50 seats of the 182-member Assembly.

In most of the seats in South Gujarat and the Saurashtra-Kutch belt, Patidars are the dominant caste. Gujarat has 70 per cent Leuva Patel and 30 per cent Kadva Patel.

This time, the BJP had a landslide victory and won 47 out of 54 seats in the Saurashtra-Kutch belt. In 2017, the BJP had won only 23 seats. While this time, Congress was able to win only a dismal three seats, down from 2017, when Congress won 30 seats. Last time the BJP lost by only 786 votes in Dang, but this time BJP defeated Congress by a margin of about 20,000 votes.

Similarly, BJP had lost the Kaprada seat by just 170 votes last time but this time BJP wrested this seat from Congress by a huge margin. In Rajkot, four sitting MLAs were not given tickets this time, especially Rajkot West, from where Vijay Rupani contested and won and became chief minister of Gujarat. The result of this is that this time BJP has captured all eight seats in Rajkot.

Installing a Patidar, Bhupendra Bhai Patel, as the incumbent chief minister, for the second time in a grand oath taking ceremony on 12 December 2022, and bringing the likes of Hardik Patel into the BJP fold, showcase Modi’s long-term vision. That Patidar agitation has long since fizzled out, with Hardik now in the BJP. Hardik Patel won Viramgam by a margin of over 51,707 votes defeating Lakha Bharwad and Amarsinh Thakore. There are an estimated 3 lakh voters in Viramgam; 65,000 Thakors (OBC); 50,000 Patidars; 35,000 Dalits, 20,000 Muslims and 20,000 from the Bharwad and Rabari castes (OBC); 18,000 Kolis (OBC) members; 10,000 Karadia Rajputs (OBC).

In fact, the Modi magic in Gujarat this time has been all-pervasive with not only Patidars, but even BJP’s tribal vote share rising to a solid 53 per cent. Tribals have traditionally favoured the Congress but not this time. The Congress repeatedly insulted India’s first tribal President, Droupadi Murmu with reckless utterances and Gujarat’s tribal voters showed Rahul Gandhi and his dilapidated party, the exit door.

Prime Minister Modi’s outreach is the X-factor behind the Patidars swinging towards the BJP. On the final day of campaigning for Phase 1, Prime Minister Modi did an 18-km roadshow in Varachha, a constituency with over 60 per cent Patidar votes, where the AAP was challenging the BJP. AAP ultimately turned out to be just a “vote-cutter”, failing to touch even the double-digit mark in Gujarat,in terms of seats won.

As for the hill state of Himachal Pradesh, it has a history of alternating between Congress and the BJP since 1982. The Congress won 40 seats and the BJP 25 seats in the 68-seat state Assembly. BJP’s vote share was only 0.9 per cent lower than that of the Congress and overall,BJP secured just 37,000 lesser number of votes. In more than a dozen seats the margin of victory for Congress was less than 1,000 seats, compared to its nearest rival, the BJP. So while the Congress won the hill state, it was not a landslide.

As for AAP, it was routed in Himachal Pradesh losing deposits in all the 68 seats it contested. The 10-year-old party got national status but sadly, it is hardly a national party. In the last nine elections in India, AAP has lost deposits in over 700 seats. In Goa, the party got just two seats with a 6 per cent vote share. Kejriwal’s bombastic claims of dethroning the BJP in Gujarat, remained a pipe dream as his party got a vote share of just 12.7 per cent.

The fact is, there is no such thing as the Kejriwal model, which is a hoax. AAP is the only national party with no MP in the Lok Sabha. As for the Congress, its euphoria over the victory in Himachal may be short lived, as the infighting between Pratibha Singh, widow of Virbhadra Singh and claimant to the chief minister’s post and the newly minted chief minister, Sukhwinder Singh Sukhu, is now out in the open, with both sides washing their dirty linen in public. In fact, the Congress today is a wobbly ship with no captain and is hurtling from one disaster to another.

Kharge, the newly anointed Congress chief, is a Gandhi family durbaari with no real say in decision-making. As for Rahul Gandhi, he gave up on Gujarat even before the fight began, which speaks volumes about his defeatist attitude. And politics is certainly not meant for the meek and the timid. As for Priyanka Vadra, her campaign got the Congress only two measly seats in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls earlier this year. The Himachal victory for the Congress was due to false promises with respect to the old pension scheme (OPS) and had nothing to do with Priyanka. As for OPS, it is fiscally irresponsible, will be a disaster for the state’s finances if implemented and will push revenue buoyancy into negative territory.

The election results show the BJP scripting a humongous victory in Gujarat, Congress staging a shaky comeback in Himachal Pradesh, while the AAP lost key bastions in Raniganj, Patparganj Najafgarh and Okhla in the MCD elections, despite getting 134 seats in the MCD polls. These state elections are seen to be the start of the run-up to the 2024 General Election, where Prime Minister Modi will be seeking a third term and needless to add, the Modi juggernaut has only gotten more powerful and invincible.

The BJP is in pole position to win Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Karnataka and other smaller States which are going to the polls in 2023,ahead of the General Election,in 2024. BJP getting 104 in the MCD polls despite a 15 year anti-incumbency, is quite commendable. The anti-incumbency factor did not work in Gujarat because of the towering Modi phenomenon. Also,assembly and municipal polls are entirely different in character.

Suffice it to say, the BJP has dominance in national politics, as the opposition remains fragmented and the Congress continues to fight for political survival. AAP is not really a factor in the larger scheme of things, despite tall claims by Kejriwal and his acolytes. If anything, Kejriwal’s tally in Delhi Assembly elections in 2025 is set for a major decline, given his abysmal track record in governance in Delhi and more recently in Punjab, which has seen law and order deteriorating rapidly, post-Bhagwant Mann’s ascension.

On 7 October, 2001, the same year as the deadly Bhuj earthquake, Narendra Modi took oath as the chief minister of the state. On the one hand, Modi started working towards rebuilding Bhuj and on the other, 59 people were burnt alive in the Sabarmati Express at Godhra, triggering state-wide riots. Modi decided to step down from the post of Gujarat chief minister dissolving the Assembly. As a result, elections were held again and this time, BJP won with 127 seats in a house of 182 seats.

Modi came to power for a second time on 22 December, 2002 as the chief minister of Gujarat. The Modi juggernaut has been unstoppable since 2002. No political leader in any part of the world has had such an uninterrupted reign in public life, despite zillions of attempts to malign and undermine him. The moot point is every single court of law in India over the last 20 years has absolved Narendra Modi. As recently as June 2022, the Supreme Court clearly said that Narendra Modi had no involvement in any kind of criminal conspiracy whatsoever in the Gujarat riots and went on to add that Teesta Setalvad’s allegations were made with an “ulterior motive” to keep the pot boiling.

Speaking of performance this time, BJP’s Amitbhai Shah won in Ellisbridge in Ahmedabad with a 1.04 lakh lead, Harsh Ramesh Singhvi defeated AAP’s candidate in Majura with a 1.16 lakh lead, Yogeshbhai Narandas Patel snatched the Manjalpur constituency with a 1 one lakh lead over the Congress candidate as did Mukeshbhai Zinalbhai Patel in Olpad. Darshita Shah has been voted with a one lakh margin in Rajkot West while Surat West went with BJP’s Purnesh Modi with a 1.04 lakh lead. In Valsad, Bharatbhai Kikubhai Patel repeated the feat with a 1.03 lakh victory margin.

Several other constituencies reported equally overwhelming victory margins. Sabarmati voted BJP over Congress with a 98,688 lead, Pardi did so with a 97,164 margin, Gandevi led the BJP with 93,166 margin and Naranpura at 92,800.

Even Morbi, the site of a recent bridge collapse, voted BJP with a 62,000-plus lead. From Bhavnagar to Jamnagar, Bardoli, Bhuj and Bharuch,all have recorded over 50,000 victory margins for BJP. The 17 seats won by the Congress and five by AAP do not seem to indicate a comprehensive mandate. The biggest margin recorded by Congress, for instance, was in Vansda where Hasmukhbhai Patel won with a 35,000 margin, only. Jignesh Mevani of Congress won Vadgam with a wafer-thin margin of just 4,928 votes while Chanasama went to the Congress party with a thin 1404 lead. In fact, the victory leads for Congress were largely under 9,000 votes, showcasing the complete annihilation of Rahul Gandhi’s Party.

BJP won all 12 seats in Surat city and four in the district, thereby nullifying the AAP factor as its Gujarat president Gopal Italia lost from Katargam. BJP candidate from Choryasi, Sandip Desai, secured a lead of 1.85 lakh votes. He got 2.36 lakh votes (73.12 per cent) of 3.22 lakh votes polled. While AAP’s Prakash Contractor secured 49,194 votes, Congress’s Kanti Patel got 25,840 votes.

A total of four MLAs from Surat secured a lead of over 1 lakh votes. The other three are Harsh Sanghavi from Majura with a lead of 1.16 lakh voters; Mukesh Patel from Olpad with 1.15 lakh lead; and Purnesh Modi from Surat West with 1.04 lakh lead.

In Valsad, BJP candidate Bharat Patel also secured 1.03 lakh lead.

One of the major wins for BJP in South Gujarat is from Vyara in Tapi district which was won for the first time by the party. BJP’s Mohan Kokani won it by securing 69,633 votes against 47,513 votes by AAP candidate Bipinchandra Chaudhari. Three-term sitting MLA from Congress, Punaji Gamit, got 45,904 votes.Out of 35 seats in south Gujarat, BJP won 33 seats except Vansda in Navsari and Dediapada in Narmada. While Congress’s Anant Patel retained Vansda, AAP’s Chaitar Vasava won in Dediapada.

In 2017, BJP had won 25 seats, Congress eight seats and BTP two seats in south Gujarat. In the 2020 by-election, BJP gained two seats from Congress. So before the 2022 election, the seat tally in South Gujarat was, BJP with 27 seats, Congress with six seats and BTP with two seats.

That the BJP surged to victory in Gujarat for a record seventh consecutive win, is a sign of the continuing and relentless popularity of Prime Minister Modi, who has completely transformed India’s political landscape. In Gujarat, the BJP, which has been in power for 27 years, won 156 of the 182 assembly seats, up from its tally of 99 seats in the 2017 election. The Congress was decimated winning in just 17 seats and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which was hallucinating about a victory, was reduced to merely five seats.

BJP not only broke Congress’s 37-year-old record of winning 149 seats. Rather, Congress was forced to face a historic defeat in Gujarat. Congress has never had such few seats in the last six decades after the formation of Gujarat in 1960. The Himachal victory for the Congress cannot serve as a balm to compensate for the humiliation the Congress faced in Gujarat. “Thank you Gujarat. I am overcome with a lot of emotions seeing the phenomenal election results,” tweeted Prime Minister Modi. “People blessed the politics of development and at the same time expressed a desire that they want this momentum to continue at a greater pace,” he further added.

In the final analysis, suffice it to say that Narendra Modi is not an ordinary leader. He has always embraced adversity and created opportunities out of nowhere. The BJP under Modi, won Lok Sabha 2014 with 17.6 crore votes. That tally rose handsomely by 31 per cent to 23 crore votes in Lok Sabha 2019 elections. The BJP’s massive, landslide win in Gujarat can be gauged from the fact that over 27 per cent constituencies in Gujarat reported a victory margin above 50,000 and over 6 per cent recorded a lead of more than a lakh, showing both, the sweep and scale of BJP’s victory in the state.

Almost 50 of the total 182 constituencies in Gujarat have recorded an overwhelming lead - ranging from 50,000 to 1.9 lakh votes - and these have all gone to the BJP. The highest winning margin was recorded by Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel with a lead of over 1.92 lakh votes, over his nearest rival from the Congress party. In the days to come, if anything, the Modi juggernaut is set to only get stronger because Prime Minister Modi has that rare quality of staying grounded and never letting the trappings of power come in the way, between him and his constituents. Humility combined with an iron will is Modi’s strongest suit.

The author is an Economist, National Spokesperson of the BJP and the Bestselling Author of The Modi Gambit. Views expressed are personal.

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